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The sum of the elements above the maindiagonal of the matrix defines the share of those enterprises where theeffective demand replaced the non-monetary demand. The sum below the maindiagonal defines the share of enterprises with a reverse replacement - ofeffective demand by non-monetary demand. On the basis of the extradiagonal sumsthe replacement index can be calculated which is analogous to the coefficientof the shift in forecasts suggested by Kawasaki and Zimmermann2. Thereplacement index is calculated as the ratio of the difference betweenabove-the-diagonal and below-the-diagonal elements to their sum and can acquirethe values within the interval between–1 and +1. Positive valuesdemonstrate a replacement of the non-monetary demand by the effective demand,negative values - a reverse process. The greater are the absolute values of thecoefficient, the more intensive is the replacement process. The changes of thereplacement index for the years 2000-2001 (when the monthly data on thedynamics of all types of demand are available) are shown in Fig. 20. The mostintensive ousting of non-monetary operations in Russian industry occurred inOctober 2000. Then non-monetary transactions were replaced by monetary ones in36% of the Russian enterprises while a reverse ratio was seen in 14%. Afterthat the growth rate of the effective demand began to fall dramatically whichresulted in January-February 2001 in an absolute reduction of the sales of theindustrial products for money. The replacement index fell by 0.53 points inthree months and in January acquired a negative value – the normal monetary demand againbegan to be replaced in Russian industry by non-monetary transactions. Inspring the situation returned to normal though not for a long time: the zerosales growth rates in June-July again dramatically reduced the intensity of thereplacement of non-monetary transactions. The August leap in the intensity ofsales growth revived the positive trends, and in October the most intensivereplacement of non-monetary operations in the whole year 2001 was registered.The negative tendencies in the demand area produced a dramatic fall of thisindex in November-December. In two months the index fell by 33 points butremained positive, i.e. non-monetary operations were being replaced by normaltransactions. In January 2002 the index became negative, just as it had beenthe year before.

Figure 20

The share of non-monetary transactions inthe realization of industrial products in 2001 displayed a stable tendency forreduction, especially in the first half of the year. As a result, the share ofbarter, bills and set-offs by the end of the year went down to 20-25%. Forcash, 75% of the product is realized (see Table 13).

Table 13

The share of cash, barter, bills andset-offs in total realization of product in the year 2001 in industry as awhole (%)

Shares of

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

Cash

66

71

72

71

73

75

74

73

73

75

73

76

Barter

16

13

12

14

12

10

12

11

12

11

11

9

Bills and set-offs

16

14

14

13

14

13

13

14

13

12

14

11

Source: Surveys conducted by theIET.

The leader in the ousting of barter is theelectric power industry which increased the share of money from 52% in 2000(September) to 90% in 2001 (the average for that year). The second place, asfar as this index is concerned, is occupied by the construction materialsindustry (a growth from 31 to 57%). It can be noted that the latter value isthe worst among the branch-by-branch indices in the year 2001 (see Table 14).

Table 14

The share of cash in product salesin 2001 by branches (%)

Branches

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09

10

11

12

ElectricPower

85

91

90

90

87

97

94

82

95

91

95

88

Ferrous metallurgy

74

74

84

84

85

79

64

76

68

86

82

89

Non-ferrous metallurgy

77

85

71

83

82

83

74

67

72

85

67

45

Chemical and petrochemical

64

64

74

68

71

72

74

73

79

73

73

70

Machine-building

62

69

71

67

68

71

71

70

76

72

69

74

Timber, W/W and PULP/PAPER

65

67

66

64

70

63

68

69

61

64

62

69

Construction materials

51

49

55

56

57

54

63

57

69

60

62

65

Light

68

76

72

73

75

80

78

78

82

77

80

79

Food

81

72

68

76

75

80

77

82

76

79

79

84

Source: Surveys conducted by theIET.

Thus, the problem of barter and othernon-monetary surrogates which once used to be one of the most burdensome forindustry as well as for society as a whole is receding into the past. Theindustrial growth that has already been going on with varying degrees ofintensity for three years is acquiring a more and more normal, monetarycharacter. However, for several more years it will probably be impossible to doaway completely with barter, bills and set-offs in the turnover of industrialenterprises. And one of the reasons for this is the tremendous industrialpotential that has been accumulated in the times of planned economy is stillpreserved and burdens the enterprises’ management. This can be clearlygleaned from the estimates of the effective demand and production volumes madeby the enterprises according to the scale above the norm, normal, belowthe norm (see Fig. 21).

Figure 21

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