Net export of oil, oil products andgas in % to oil and gas production
Source: State Statistics Committee, RFMinistry of Energy, State Customs Committee of the RF, IET estimates.
At the same time, unlike thesituation in 2000, the increase in domestic demand didn’t lead to the rise in oil and oilproduct’s prices inthe home market (on the contrary, there was a downturn both in real and nominalterms), which was an evidence of some overproduction of oil in the country. Thedomestic prices for oil in dollars fell from $56-58US/tn. at the beginning ofthe year down to $49,9US/tn. in December. The petrol price, which reached apeak of $200US/tn. in IV Quarter, 2000, exhibited a pronounced falling tendencyduring the whole year and till December dropped to $151,1US/tn. As a result,the domestic price for petrol fell below the pre-depreciation level (Table 8).It resulted in the considerable gap between the levels of domestic and worldmarket prices for oil displayed during the whole year. The correlation betweendomestic oil prices (producer’s prices) and export prices accounted for 33-34% during threequarters. In IV Quarter, due to the fall in world market prices the correlationbetween domestic and export prices grew up to 40-42%.
Domestic prices for oil, oil products andgas, in dollars, 1997-2001
(average wholesale prices of productioncompanies, $/tn.)
Gas, USD. Thos. cub.m.
Source: calculated upon Goskomstatdata
Total export of oil and oil productsincreased from 206,4mln.tn. in 2000 up to 229,4mln.tn. in 2001 or by 11.1%(there was a rise in oil export by 11% and in oil products by 11.5%). Withinthe structure of oil export the share of crude oil export accounted for 70% oftotal export of oil and oil products. The major part of oil export fell to theshare of diesel oil and fuel oil. In 2001, the share of export in diesel oilproduction was 51.8%, fuel oil’s share was 19.6%, and motor petrol’s share accounted for 12.9%.There was a decrease by 7.5% in natural gas export (mostly resulting from thesupply reduction for CIS countries). Most part of energy supply (86% of oil,96% of oil products, and 73% of gas) was provided for the countries outsideCIS.
During I-III Quarters 2001, the growth ofphysical export volume actually allowed to compensate for some downturn in oilprices in the world market relative to the previous year. Thus, gross revenuesreceived from oil export in January-September, 2001, rose by 3.7% as comparedto the relevant period of the previous year in spite of the decrease in worldmarket prices. It allowed for keeping a high level of the oil sector ratio toRussian export (oil and oil product share in Russian export accounted foralmost 35% in 2001, 33.2% in 2000).
Alongside with that, owing to the rubledepreciation and high prices in the world market, the decline in light oilproducts import, which had begun at the end of 1998, continued. At the sametime the decline in import slowed down. Thus, motor petrol import in 2001 fellby 27% relative to the previous year (in 2000, by 56%), while theimport ratio to total petrol production dropped by 0.4% (compare: in the firsthalf of 1998, i.e. before the depreciation, the import ratio to total petrolproduction accounted for 8.7%).
The analysis of Russian oil export dynamicsover a long-term period shows that in spite of tending to increase, total clearexport of oil and oil products still remains much lower than that of the end of1980-s, the beginning of 1990-s; it fell by 9%, i.e. from 246,3mln.tn. in 1990down to 224,1mln.tn. in 2001. At the same time, the sharp decline indomestic oil consumption (by our estimates, it dropped from 269,9mln.tn. in1990 to 124mln.tn. in 2001, i.e. more than twice) resulted in the increase inoil and oil products export ratio to total oil production from 47,7% up to64,4%. Owing to the decline in clear gas export observed over the last twoyears, its level in 2001 practically returned to the level of the beginning of1990-s, albeit the ratio of clear export of gas to gas production is still alittle higher than that of the pre-depreciation period (30.1% against28%).
The total clear export of oil, oil productsand gas still remains at a lower level that that of 1990. By our estimates, theratio of this variable decreased from 407,7mln.tn. of oil equivalent in 1990down to 381,9mln.tn. of oil equivalent in 2001, i.e. by 6.3%. At that, clearexport ratio to the total production of oil and gas grew from 37.3% to 43.8%.From this viewpoint we can declare the augmentation of export orientation inoil sector as compared to the Soviet period, though we should keep in mind thatit has nothing to do with the increase in absolute export volume but with thedecline in output of carbohydrates resulted from the decrease in the domesticconsumption, the downturn in supply for CIS countries, and the degradation ofproduction conditions.
Financial Showing in Oil Industry,1997-2001 (as USD bln.)
Proceeds from export of oil andpetroleum derivatives
Profit (balance sheetfinancial results)
Accounts payableoutstanding (as of end of the year)
Including to the budget
Source; calculated on the basis ofGoskomstat.
The high level of oil prices in the woldmarket in January-September, 2001, determined the high level of revenues in oilsector of economy. Total revenues (balanced financial account) of oil industryincluding oil-producing industry and oil-refining industry accounted for$7,64mld US in January-September, 2001. At that, the share of oil industryrevenues in total revenues of the Russian industry was 39.5% and the share inthe Russian economy, as a whole, was 21.6% (in 2000, the given rates were 40.4%and 27.8% respectively). Oil sector revenues provided a high level of taxrevenues for the federal budget and allowed oil production companies toincrease their investments and reduce the amount of their accounts payable. Bythe end of November, the overdue debts of oil industry to the budgets ofdifferent levels had reached a low point of 0,13bln.tn. over the last years(Table 9). In IV Quarter, however, the situation in the oilindustry got worse due to the fall in oil prices in the worldmarket.
The change in major variables of oil sectordevelopment characterizing production, sale in domestic and foreign markets,prices, investment activity, and payments and accounts is reflected in Pictures8-12.
Oil output, consumption and export in 1990to 2001, as mln.t.
Oil output, consumption and export in 1990to 2001 as c.m. bln.
Source: Goskomstat, the RF Ministry ofEnergy, the State Customs Committee, International Energy AgencyИсточник, IETcalculations
Average export prices for oil and dieselfuel between 1996 to 2001, as USD/t.
Export of oil and petrolem derivatives innatural and value equivalents in 1997 to 2001, as m.t., USD. Mln.
Source: calculated basing on Goskomstatdata
Average produce prices for oil and gas inUSD equivalent in 1992 to 2001, as USD/t., USD/c.m.
Average producer prices for gasoline andblack oil in USD equivalent in 1992 to 2001, as USD/t.
Gasoline Black oil
Source: calculated basing on Goskomstatdata
Operational drilling for oil and placementof wells in operation in 1996- 2001
The oil sector's accounts payable tosuppliers and budgets of all levels in 1996-2001, as USD bln.
Source: calculated basing on Goskomstatdata
International oil prices and placement ofnew oil wells in operation in 1996-2001
Source: Goskomstat, the IMF.
The Changes in GDPformation structure in respect of revenues and economic efficiency of theproduction
The ruble devaluation and the increase inworld market prices for Russian export goods effected changes in the dynamicsand structure of GDP formation in respect of revenues in 1999-2000. In 2000,total revenues in economy accounted for 1186,8bln.rbl., which is 1.62 timesmore than those in the previous year. However, in 2001, the situation changed.
The revenue dynamics, as viewed since thebeginning of 2001, was marked by gradual slowing down in all economic sectorsfrom 124.5% in January to 92.8% in January-November, while in industry therates were falling from 104.5% to 83.6% respectively. In January-November 2001,the balanced financial account totaled 1030,7bln.rbl., inclusive of562,4bln.rbl. in industry. The income rates in industry dropped from 18.0% in2000 down to 14.1% in 2001. Such a decline in income rates was determined bythe increase in production costs resulted from a rise in wholesale prices andphysical resources rates, the changes in prices for industrial output beingsmooth and wages growth rates being higher than those of final product prices.Besides, relative depreciation of the foreign market’s state in respect of someRussian export items also affected the income rates. In the event that thegiven tendency develops, we will hardly be able to account on the increase ininvestments. Moreover, it should be noted that, according to the annual totals,the revenue share in total investments allocated for manufacture developmenthas grown. It reflects some changes in priorities and motivation of economicactivity. Domestic manufacturers associate prospects for expansion andpreservation of the positions they hold in the domestic and foreign marketswith technical innovations and re-equipment of the production facilities. Outof total number of innovation-oriented manufactures almost 1/5 manufacturesassume physical costs reduction, the decrease in power consumption andreplacement of outdated products to be the targets of prospective development,and almost 1/3 aim at the increase in quality and conformity with modernstandards.
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