WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 39 |

The price range in the world oil marketdetermined oil sector performance in Russian economy in 2001. Since 60 % oftotal oil production output is exported as crude oil and domestic final salesprices are much lower than those in the world market, world market priceappears to be the major factor regulating income and Russian oil productionindustry financial performance. During the most part of 2001, the world oilmarket performance was characterized by high prices for oil and oil products,which significantly exceeded the price level of the last decade. During I-IIIQuarters 2001, average oil basket price in OPEC approached the middle of oilprice target zone, established by OPEC at $22-28 US per barrel. OPEC managed tomaintain the prices by means of considerable reduction in oil supply. Themechanism of the target price level support could secure the reduction inOPEC’s oil productionby 500,000 barrels per day if oil prices fell below $22 US per barrel, andwould provide the increase in oil production by 500,000 barrels per day if oilprices exceeded $28 US per barrel in 10 working-days. In IV Quarter, however,there was a dramatic fall in the world oil prices. Bent oil price grew down to$19,4 US per barrel and OPEC average oil basket price fell down to $18,3 US perbarrel. The price of Russian oil in the world market averaged $24,4 US perbarrel in I-III Quarter 2001, but in IV Quarter it dropped down to $18,8 US perbarrel (Table 4, picture 7).

Table 4

World oil prices, 1997-2001 ($ perbarrel)


1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

I Q

2001

II Q

2001

IIIQ

2001

IVQ

2001

Oil price, Brent,Great Britain

19,12

12,72

17,97

28,50

25,79

27,38

25,30

19,42

24,44

Oil price, Urals, Russia

18,33

11,83

17,30

26,63

23,68

25,39

24,12

18,78

22,97

OPEC oil basket price

18,68

12,28

17,47

27,60

24,42

25,67

24,13

18,33

23,12

Average price of oil imported in theUSA

18,50

12,08

17,22

27,72

24,12

23,85

23,04

17,06

22,06

Source: OECD International EnergyAgency, U.US..DeS. Department ofEnergy.

The main reasons for the decrease in theworld oil prices in 2001 consisted in a dramatic slowing-down of world demandfor oil and direct reduction of the latter in some major industrializedcountries accompanied by ongoing oil production growth and accumulation ofultimate reserves. The decline in the world oil demand resulted from evidentfall in the world economy growth rates occurred in 2001. By InternationalMonetary Fund estimates, GDP annual growth rates fell from 4,7 % in 2000 downto 2,4 % in 2001. With all this going on, GDP decreased at a higher rate inmajor oil consumer countries. Thus, in the US, whichconsume more than ¼of the world total oil output produced, GDP growth rates fell from 4,1 % in2000 down to 1,0 % in 2001, and Japan went into an economic recession. By theestimates of theeUS..DeS. Department of Energy, totaleconomic growth rates in OECD countries decreased from 3,3 % in 2000 to 0,9 %in 2001. The terrorist acts committed in the USA on September 11, 2001stipulated for the decline in demand in IV Quarter entailing, in particular,the reduction in aviation fuel demand and shortening of warm heating season inthe eU. S. U.S. (in comparison with average annual rate).

As a result, by OECD International EnergyAgency estimates, the world oil demand growth rates fell from 0,9 % in 2000down to 0,1 % in 2001, when in North and South America, as well as in OECDcountries of Asian-Pacific Region direct decline in demand occurred. The totalfall in demand in OECD countries in 2001 accounted for 0,3 %. The most dramaticfall in demand among highly industrialized countries occurred in Japan, it wasa decrease of 1,6 % relative to the previous year. There was a decline indemand in the USA, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Brazil, and India. By estimatesof the eU.S..DeS. Department of Energy, the demand for oil in the eU. S. U.S.rose by 0,9 % in 2000 but grew down by 0,3 % in 2001. The financial crisis inArgentina caused a detriment to demand for oil in South America. As a result,2001 became the year of the lowest growth rates of the world oil demand in theperiod from 1985. By the international Energy Agency estimates, the growth inoil demand in 2001 equaled zero regardless of the countries in post-sovietregion (Table 5).

Table 5

The structure and dynamics of world demandfor oil in 2000-2001


Demand

Mln. bbl. per day

Annual change

Mln. bbl. per day

Annual change, %

2001

2000

2001

2000

2001

World total

75,99

0,64

0,10

0,9

0,1

North America

24,00

0,33

-0,10

1,4

-0,4

Europe

15,89

-0,12

0,08

-0,7

0,5

OECD countries of Asian-PacificRegion

8,55

-0,04

-0,11

-0,4

-1,2

China

4,88

0,30

0,09

6,7

1,8

Post-soviet countries

3,69

-0,05

0,07

-1,2

2,0

The Middle East

4,52

0,09

0,14

2,1

3,1

Other Asian countries

7,31

0,10

0,00

1,4

0,0

Africa

2,39

0,01

0,02

0,3

0,8

South America

4,77

0,01

-0,09

0,3

-1,8

Reference data: world demandexclusive of post-soviet countries

OECD countries

72,30

0,70

0,00

1,0

0,0

World total

47,71

0,16

-0,13

0,3

-0,3

Source: OECD International EnergyAgency.

The decline in the world oil demand wasaccompanied by ongoing oil production output growth. At this, OPEC countriesreduced real oil production (though not to the extent it was supposed to underOPEC agreement) in order to maintain the targeted oil price level in the woldmarket. According to International Energy Agency estimates, oil productionoutput in OPEC countries fell from 30,80mln. bbl. per day down to 30,16mln.bbl. per day in 2001 or decreased at 0,64mln. bbl. per day. At the same time, asignificant rise in oil production occurred outside OPEC, first of all, inRussia, where the growth in oil production rates was the highest. An evidentincrease in oil production output could be observed in Mexico, Norway, China,and Brazil. Total growth in oil production in non-OPEC countries in 2001accounted for 0,73mln. bbl. per day. Thus, the reduction in oil productionoutput pursued by OPEC was actually neutralized by the increase in oil supplyprovided by non-members (Table 6). As a result, the aggregate share of OPEC inthe world oil production dropped from 40,1% down to 39,3 % in 2001.

Table 6.

The structure and dynamics of the world oilproduction in 1999-2001
(mln. bbl. perday)


1999

2000

2001

World total

74,20

76,72

76,81

Increment (reduction) relative tothe previous year

-1,40

2,52

0,09

OPEC countries

29,40

30,80

30,16

Increment (reduction) relative tothe previous year

-1,40

1,40

-0,64

Non-OPEC countries

44,80

45,92

46,65

Increment (reduction) relative to the previousyear

0,00

1,12

0,73

Source: OECD International EnergyAgency.

Excessive oil supply in the world marketresulted in a drastic growth in its ultimate reserves. By the end of IIIQuarter 2001, oil reserves in OECD countries had reached the top level in thelast five years. Oil reserves growth marked OECD countries in all regions. Thehigh level of oil reserves added to the constraints oppressing oil pricesrecovery.

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 39 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .