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100,5

102,9

102,9

Source: Social and economic situation ofRussia, corresponding years.

As sales in livestock sector grow fasterthan production, one can assume that greater share of output is marketed whilebarter and shadow turnover are losing ground12. Livestock productivitygrows in line with decreasing number of animals.

In the coming season the supply of feedswill be better than in the previous year and, besides, prices for coarse grainsfell notably. Both these factors can serve the basis for improving livestockproductivity.

Agricultural enterprises are the majorcontributors to growth in livestock and poultry production. Privatefarmers’ engagementtherein is minor while household farming is shrinking as economy stabilizes. Asa result the share of household plots in the gross agricultural outputdecreased.

Foodindustry

Food industry continues to grow for thethird year round. Dynamics of selected foods’ production change (Table31). The production of vegetable oils fell after being record high in 2000.This drop might be a response to overproduction: in 2001 smaller areas wereplanted in sunflower.

Production of basic meat and milk productscontinues to grow, and its pre-crisis13 level has been restored.

Good grains crop triggered growth in flourand groats production that was declining a year ago.

It’s noteworthy that growth rates inmeat and milk industry (over 10%) are well above those of milk and meat salesby agricultural producers (3.7% and -1.1% respectively). Moreover, the officialstatistical data do not include output of small food enterprises, and thus theactual growth in meat and milk processing may be even higher. This is anevidence that the increase of respective production volumes results fromexpanding use of imported raw inputs. Since the after-devaluation price gap isshrinking (Figure 34) hopes for substituting domestic meat and milk for importsvanish.

Table 31

Production of basic food products as % ofthe previous year


1999

2000

2001

2001 % 1990

Meat

84,4

112,4

104,0

18,1

Sausage

93,2

113,2

111,8

52,0

Butter

93,2

101,4

100,6

32,0

Whole milkproducts

99,0

110,1

109,6

32,4

Vegetableoils

112,8

174,4

90,1

105,2

Sugarpowder

182,2

86,5

108,1

174,3

Flour

107,1

94,3

99,0

56,9

Groats

85,3

99,5

105,3

33,4

Macaroni

132,6

96,0

108,5

72,2

Margarine

182,2

120,7

108,8

61,2

Canned meat

169,0

82,7

106,4

5,7

Source: Social and economic situation ofRussia, corresponding years.

Figure 34

Average consumer prices for selecteddomestic products as % of prices for imported products, June 2001

Source: Data of the RF State Committee forStatistics.

Production ofagricultural inputs

The growth in agricultural inputsproduction became slower and tractor building even dropped. This is a sign ofshorter agrarian sector’s demand for domestic inputs. There are several reasons for that.First, in 2001 the system of federal leasing was reorganized and purchases ofagricultural machinery were notably reduced. Second, domestic agriculturalmachines began to lose their price advantage over Western machinery, the importof which respectively grew. Besides, large external investors in the agrariansector prefer imported machinery and equipment, have financial resources forbuying them and don’tneed state leasing. The share of such vertically integrated agrarian holdingsin the Russian agriculture steadily grows. Accordingly, the demand for domesticagricultural machinery declines. The after-devaluation price gap did not lastlong enough to reorganize this sector as well as others.

Table 32

Production of agricultural inputs as % ofthe previous year


1999

2000

2001

Tractors

148,3

137,2

78,8

Tractorploughs

99,9

170,8

113

Tractorseeders

2,3 .

166,9

122

Tractorcultivators

69,4

165,9

118,5

Grainharvesters

188,5

2,2 .

174,3

Tractormowers

109,7

100,4

547

Mineral fertilizers

124,9

106,2

106,9

Source: Social and economic situation ofRussia, corresponding years.

Production of mineral fertilizers was up6.9%, their export - 7% while in 2000 the latter grew slower than production.Since Russian agricultural producers actually do not use imported fertilizers,this trend evidences lower rates of application growth in 2001. Still, theapplication of mineral fertilizers expanded, especially in the production ofmost profitable crops (e.g. in the production of grains it was up 5fold)14.

Situation on agriculturaland food markets

Domesticmarkets

In 2001 the situation on domestic agrifoodmarkets was shaped by higher population’s real disposable incomes (up5.9%) and trends in import supplies.

Higher population’s incomes enlarged foodconsumption. In 2001 the turnover of retail food trade was up 7.4%, that offood service - 8.6%. In the preceding years real incomes grew faster thanretail food sales. The reversal of this trend can mean that smaller volumes offood fall out of statistically recorded turnover (e.g. the ones sold by streetvendors, produced and consumed by households, etc.).

The growth of incomes resulted in biggerdemand for such income elastic items as meat and milk products. It almostattained the pre-crisis level: the per capita consumption of meat amounted to98% of the 1998 level and that of milk products - to 92%.

Retail sales of other income elastic foodproducts in January-September 2001 grew as well: those of confectionery - by9.9% as compared to the corresponding period previous year, of dry milk, creamand mixes - by 16.2%, of sausage - by 4.2%, of margarine products - by 13.3%,of fruits, berries and grapes - by 9.0%.

The rise of retail prices for meat products(by 28.5% as compared to December 2000) exceeded the inflation rate (consumerprice index was up 18.6%). Their real growth shows that demand expands fasterthan supply. The rise of retail prices for milk and eggs was below theinflation rate.

According to supply and utilizationbalances for meat and milk products (Figure 35 and Figure 36) in 2001 the shareof their imports in the total supply became bigger. Moreover, the importedvolumes were even larger than in 1998. In 10 months 2001 the share of importedmeat in its total supply amounted to 37.5% as compared to 30% in 10 months 2000and was 36.7% above the corresponding 1998 indicator. The trend in supply ofmilk is similar: the share of imports therein in 2001 was 10.3% as compared to7.3% in the two preceding years and exceeded the 1998 level by9.5%.

Figure 35

Supply of meat and meat products, milliontons

Source: Social and economic situation ofRussia, January-November 2001.

Figure 36

Supply of milk and milk products, milliontons

Source: Social and economic situation ofRussia, January-November 2001.

The structure of consumer demand for meatproducts is changing: the demand for sausage and other processed meat itemsrelatively falls while that for unprocessed meat grows. The Institute ofNutrition of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences finds this to be a sign ofbetter population’sfood ration.

Despite the introduced restrictions on rawsugar import, the domestic sugar market remains saturated. The inefficiency ofimport quota became obvious already in the first half of the year. Althoughrestricted by 3.65 million tons annual tariff quota and 30% customs duty onvolumes bought in excess of the quota, the raw sugar imports inJanuary-November 2001 were 23.5% above the corresponding 2000 level (whensupplies were regulated only by import duty). Imports of white sugar within thesame period fell by about 13.5% most likely due to the imposed high duties: 30%in the first half of the year and 40% beginning from July 1, 2001. Low rates ofretail prices’ growthprove that domestic sugar market is saturated.

Situation on the grain market was shaped bythe volume of beginning stocks and the envisaged state interventions. During 7months 2001 grain prices’ growth equalled inflation rate. Their fall really started only inAugust (bringing them below the corresponding 2000 level) when harvesting wasin full swing and the output could be already estimated.

The grain market entered new 2001/2002marketing year with large beginning stocks. According to the Russian GrainUnion’s data theirtotal volume in agricultural, procurement and processing enterprises as of July1, 2001 was above the corresponding 2000 level by 63% (in agriculturalenterprises - by 38%). Large beginning stocks and good new crop conditioneddrop of domestic prices for grain that transmitted into lower prices forflour.

Purchase interventions undertaken inNovember 2001 did not have the anticipated effect on grain prices (Figure37).

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