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0.0776

0.1440

0.0753

0.1473

0.0757

7/98

171.1322

156

0.1927

-0.0508

0.0736

0.0307

0.0785

0.3509

0.0798

0.2910

0.0856

10/98

134.1913

156

0.8960

-0.1878

0.0710

0.1255

0.0839

0.1454

0.0727

0.2791

0.0832

1/99

130.5239

156

0.9320

-0.1186

0.0740

0.1126

0.0796

0.2721

0.0781

0.1710

0.0794

4/99

142.3899

156

0.7752

-0.0312

0.0732

0.1119

0.0710

0.1293

0.0696

0.1845

0.0719

7/99

181.4205

156

0.0800

-0.2137

0.0742

0.0726

0.0716

0.3518

0.0797

0.2488

0.0753

10/99

157.5348

156

0.4505

-0.1725

0.0808

0.2082

0.0822

0.1855

0.0820

0.2298

0.0816

1/00

175.3202

156

0.1381

-0.1974

0.0690

0.0649

0.0736

0.1952

0.0690

0.2642

0.0723

4/00

220.2624

156

0.0005

-0.0264

0.0659

0.0597

0.0683

0.1661

0.0652

0.1412

00651

7/00

157.7889

156

0.4449

-0.1781

0.0765

0.1392

0.0816

0.2704

0.0886

0.1868

0.0851

10/00

167.2671

156

0.2544

-0.1237

0.0768

0.0178

0.0840

0.2820

0.0831

0.2284

0.0843

1/01

144.7811

156

0.7301

-0.2098

0.0679

0.1077

0,0748

0.2919

0.0697

0.1490

0.0720

4/01

145.8152

156

0.7094

-0.1162

0.0718

0.1442

0.0722

0.1665

0.0695

0.1978

0.0699

7/01

147.4734

156

0.6750

-0.2257

0.0735

0.1072

0.0765

0.3997

0.0837

0.2694

0.0742

10/01

133.9639

156

0.8986

-0.1740

0.0871

0.1441

0.0832

0.2602

0.0861

0.2113

0.0795

Note. This table presents: G2 -probability ratio; df - degrees of freedom; Sig - observed significancelevel; coefficients estimating the linear connection (association) of theranges of each factor with the actual changes of finished stock volumes, andstandard errors (SE).

The current changes in demand did have theexpected signs. They produced reverse changes of finished stock, i.e. thegrowth of sales volumes in Russian industry is accompanied by decreasingwarehouse stock volumes. Thus, demand in part is satisfied at the expense ofaccumulated stock, while some of the unsold products remains as stock. Thismechanism of utilizing stock has become especially obvious lately when thecoefficients reached their maximum negative values and turned out to be moreand more often statistically significant. Before the 1998 default nosignificant values of these coefficients were obtained. The current changes ofcosts have positive but statistically insignificant influence on the changes offinished stock. Consequently, Russian industrial enterprises prefer to usetheir stock more as a buffer to level off sudden demand changes than as abuffer for smoothing cost changes. Again we wish to emphasize that theseconclusions refer to the current changes of demand, costs and finished stockonly.

Table 20

Characteristics of the influence of output,demand and costs on the changes of finished stock volumes

Date

Characteristics of model’s fitting quality

Model’s coefficients



Actual demand changes

Actual output changes

Expected demand changes

Expected costs changes


G2

Df

Sig

SE

SE

SE

SE

7/97

140.8559

156

0.8020

-0.2559

0.0937

0.3531

0.0864

0.1787

0.0873

0.3594

0.0805

10/97

178.0193

156

0.1094

-0.1846

0.0926

0.3525

0.0764

0.1194

0.0801

0.2940

0.0715

1/98

191.3076

156

0.0286

-0.2317

0.0853

0.3639

0.0738

0.2147

0.0702

0.1084

0.0633

4/98

188.3887

156

0.0394

-0.1789

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