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The estimates made by the enterprises asregards their financial and economic situation during the independent surveys,in our opinion, has provided the most accurate reflection of their situation.This circumstance is very important under the present conditions in Russiasince the official reports submitted by enterprises are not reliable because ofintentional or unintentional distortions, and their utilization may result inincorrect conclusions3. The results of one of thespecial surveys conducted by the IET in 2000 have already confirmed thisstipulation4. A quarter of the enterprises surveyed were then able to clearlyadmit that their official reports (on the whole) did not reflect their truesituation, and they knew it for sure. Since in the year 2000 this question wasconcerned about the full scope of reporting on the part of the enterprises, inthe commentaries it was suggested that had this question been formulated in adetailed manner the financial reports of an enterprise would have certainly becharacterized as the least reliable. This assumption was fully confirmed duringa similar survey conducted in 2001. This time the respondents were asked toestimate the five principal types of an enterprise’s official reports. The resultsfully confirmed our assumptions: the financial reports turned out to be theleast reliable (see Table 15).

Table 15

Can official reports of an enterprise beapplied in the analysis of the actual situation in industry

Types of reports andbranches

yes, they can beapplied

no, betternot

difficult toestimate

On output andshipment

85

6

9

Onemployment and payroll

65

19

16

Onfinances and payments

44

27

29

in ferrous metallurgy

34

51

15

in the chemical and petrochemicalindustries

40

31

29

in machine-building

48

23

29

in construction materialsproduction

40

29

31

in the light industry

50

29

21

in the food industry

60

18

22

Oncapital investments

66

10

24

in ferrous metallurgy

80

5

15

in the chemical and petrochemicalindustries

56

21

23

in machine-building

70

7

23

in construction materialsproduction

49

12

39

in the light industry

68

6

26

in the food industry

68

11

21

On stockdistribution

43

19

38

Source:September (2001) survey of the IET,%.

The obvious improvement of the situation inindustry that has been occurring since the beginning of the growth in theeffective demand and output has cast some doubt on the thesis that barter andother monetary surrogates are beneficial for enterprises because in this waythey can avoid paying taxes, take assets out of the control of privatecreditors and outside shareholders5. As Russian industry has beenexisting under the conditions of growing effective demand for three yearsalready we can now test several hypotheses about factors that influence thereal financial and economic situation at Russian industrial enterprises.

Firstly, we are going to deal with simplemodels of the interaction between the actual estimates of the FES and certainseparate components of the total demand for industrial products - theeffective, barter and other non-monetary types. Testing of the hypotheses oftheir independence has shown that the actual estimates of anenterprise’s FES donot depend on any changes of barter and other non-monetary types of demand. Forthese types of demand, the observed significance level during the whole periodof monitoring was above the 5% threshold. Thus the actual situation at theenterprises, most probably, is not defined by the dynamics of barter or othernon-monetary types of demand for their products. A different situation can beobserved in the sphere of the effective demand. The independence hypothesiscannot be applied during almost all those surveys that include the estimates ofthe FES. The only exception can be represented by the results of the Januarysurveys when the independence hypothesis probably cannot be rejected. But thisexception is explained by the seasonal peculiarities of the changes in thesales of industrial products. Every year in January the surveys register adramatic decrease in business activity, and all the relations between variousindices that are traditionally observed during the other periods of the yearare disrupted. The tested hypothesis of the independence of the FESsimultaneously for all the three types of demand was not confirmed either. Theobserved significance level was persistently zero. Similar results wereobtained also for the model where only the indices of the effective and barterdemands were included.

At the next stage of analysis, the modelwas augmented by the linear interactions between the main types of demand andthe FES. This more complicated model resulted in a better fitting quality.Acceptable significance level values were obtained for the effective demand. Acomparison of the two models with the participation of the effective demand(with and without the exclusion of linear interaction) confirmed thefeasibility of this more complicated version. The increment of the probabilityratio with simultaneously decreasing number of degree of freedom per unitturned out to be considerable. Thus the hypothesis that the changes ofthe effective demand influence the actual situation at Russian industrialenterprises cannot be rejected. As far as the barter demand is concerned, themore complicated model turned out to be feasible only in one case (April 2000);in twelve cases the addition of the linear interaction between the changes ofbarter and the FES was not found to be feasible because only a relatively smallimprovement of the model’s fitting quality was obtained. A similar situation emerges withthe bill and set-off realization schemes. Their interaction with the FES turnedout to be necessary only in two cases.

The coefficients of linear interactionshave confirmed the conclusions resulting from the analysis of themodels’ fittingquality. Firstly, the coefficients in the model of the interactions between thechanges of effective demand and the FES of the enterprises turned out to bealways positive and almost always (except in January 2000 and January 2001)statistically significant. Secondly, the coefficients for barter and othernon-monetary types of demand are almost always negative and statisticallyinsignificant. I.e., the growth of non-monetary schemes of product realizationin a great majority of cases does not improve the situation at the enterprises.Only the effective demand always (during the periods of considerablebarterization as well as at the time when monetary transactions prevail)allowed the enterprises to consolidate their real financial and economicsituation.

At the next stage of the analysis we aregoing to consider the model that simultaneously includes all the three types ofdemand and the estimates of the enterprises’ real FES which will be treatedas a dependent variable. The fitting quality turned out to be very good– the observedsignificance level was 0.9922-1.0000. The model’s coefficients (see Table 16)were always positive and statistically significant only for the effectivedemand. For the barter demand they were positive but in the majority of casesstatistically insignificant. They were found to be significant only in Januaryand July 2001 when the enterprises were stating that they were no more sellingtheir products for money. I.e., barter had come to rescue Russian industry.And besides, for bills and set-offs the coefficients turned out to be negative.Thus, only the hypothesis of a positive influence of the effective demand onthe FES of Russian industrial enterprises in 2000-2001 cannot be rejected.

Table16

Estimates of the influence of the changesof the three types of demand on FES in model including simultaneous influenceof the factors in question

Date

Effective demand

Barter demand

Bills and set-offs


SE

SE

SE

4/00

0.2837

0.0850

0.0181

0.0962

0.1214

0.1089

7/00

0.4005

0.0936

0.0448

0.1171

-0.0495

0.1246

10/00

0.3535

0.1023

0.1590

0.1104

0.0549

0.1203

1/01

0.2019

0.0896

0.2449

0.1187

-0.0318

0.1278

4/01

0.4298

0.1025

0.2200

0.1404

-0.1951

0.1531

7/01

0.3785

0.0943

0.2618

0.1306

0.0171

0.1274

10/01

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