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During the secondperiod (March-April 1997) the activity of the stockmarket fell noticeably. Day sales volumes on RTS-2 did not surpass US$35-45 mn(against US$55-65 mn during the first period). That was linked with the pricedrop after two months of growth and possibly with the reaction of part of thenon-residents to the government reorganisation. The level of stock priceachieved during the first two months of the year turned out to be overevaluatedin order to be able to attract new capital stock on the market.

The end of April defines the beginning of thethird period which lastedto the beginning of August. The activity of the stock market at that time wentup substantially (Fig. 18). Daily sales volumes on RTS-1 amounted to US$45-65mn in May, US$60-90 mn in June, and US$100-120 mn in July-August whichsurpassed the scale of the first recovery. A decisive role was played by theinflow of new capital stock to the market after the of Western companiesmanagers had determined the investment limits. Quotation growth on the Russianstock market was taking place against the background of the general increase ofactivity on world stock markets.

In July, the dynamics of trade operations wasinfluenced by a reduction in state bonds yields and attempts of the Russiangovernment to lower the volume of the budget arrears which attracted to themarket rouble assets from the Russian commercial banks and investmentcompanies. The start of the restructuring of corporate arrears, launching ofnew auctions for the sale of packets of shares fixed in the Federal ownershiphave increased potential attractiveness of Russian companies for strategicinvestors, both domestic and foreign.

The beginning of the fourth period fell on the first half ofAugust. From 8 August there started a gradual decline in the prices on the bluechips. Price adjustment was determined by a significant fall in the Americanstock indexes as well as by the fact that investors placed less trust in thegovernment's policy, their desire to minimise political risks. RTS-1 turnoverremained high due to intensive sale of shares by foreign investors. Russiancompanies and banks having entered onto the stock exchange in an anticipationof its growth with simultaneous decline of GKOs-OFZs yields could not manage tomaintain the share prices at the achieved level.

In September there was a certainstabilisation of the majority of quotations, however a general market outlookwas rather stagnant. As before, the trend for American and Russian stockexchange indexes remained well corrected7.

The beginning of the fifth period is closely linked with thecrisis on the world stock exchanges. Active participation of the foreigncapital on the Russian financial markets determined the scale and structure ofthe crisis which started on 23 October 1997. Following the October worldfinancial crisis, the Russian stock market demonstrated a significant fall ofquotations in November 1997 (Fig. 18).

Main reason for such dramatic fall of priceson Russian shares consists in the withdrawal of funds by Western investors.Predominance of the non-residents' capital stock and the absence of significantbarriers for the repatriation of the profit obtained on the Russian stockmarket, in the circumstances of continuing post-crisis adjustment on the stockmarket of Europe and USA, have determined further fall of the quotations forthe Russian shares. From 24 October (pre-crisis level) to 19 December the RTS-1index dropped by 31.4 per cent. On the whole, from 6 October (maximum indexvalue--571.7) to 19 December the drop constituted 37.8 per cent whichsignificantly surpassed the drop of the majority of American and European stockmarket indexes.

Figure 19

The highest reduction in quotations amongfirst rate shares from the end of October 1997, was registered on papers ofKolegergo, Norilsk Nickel, Unified Energy Systems of Russia, Irkutsk Energo,Megionneftegas, Sberbank of Russia and Rostelecom (Fig. 19).

In 1997 the Russian stock market continued tobe characterised by a high level of concentration. Papers of the seven majorcorporations constituted 70 per cent of the overall volumes of tradeduring the mentioned period (Fig. 20).

Figure 20

Table 3

Financial Markets Indicators in1997

May

June

July

August

September

October

Novemb.

December

Monthlyinflation

0,9%

1,1%

0,9%

-0,1%

-0,3%

0,2%

0,6%

1,0%

Calculated annualinflation by a given month' trend

11,4%

14,03%

11,4%

-1,2%

-3,54%

2,43%

7,44%

12,68%

CB RF refinancingrate

36%

24%

24%

24%

24%

21%

28%

28%

GKO auction quotation(by end of month)

27,26%

18,64%

18,84%

18,75%

18,44%

19,91%

28,20%

33,55%

OFZ auction quotation(by end of month)

35,58%

25,84%

24,63%

18,17%

17,91%

18,81%

25,67%

25,67%

OGSZ auction quotation(by end of month)

34,61%

20,42%

18,22%

18,22%

18,22%

19,00%

19,00%

19,00%

GKO redemption yield(per cent annual) with maturity periods:

less than 1month

22,00%

17,84%

17,68%

17,5%

19,27%

21,49%

14,45%

30,98%

1-3 months

24,13%

19,61%

17,49%

18,5%

19,52%

19,71%

23,00%

36,19%

3-6 months

28,24%

21,69%

18,93%

18,5%

18,57%

18,44%

24,93%

31,94%

average rate onoutstanding issues

26,65%

20,28%

18,28%

18%

18,99%

19,60%

22,37%

33,82%

outstanding OFZ averageredemption yield (per cent annual)

35,4%

31,5%

27,1%

27,5%

28,38%

21,67%

30,82%

36,29%

GKO-OFZ market turnoverper month (Rb bn)

77011

82445

71841,6

60000

81660

91882

52488

IBC-INSTAR rate (percent annual by the end of month) on credits for:

1 day

7,71%

15,13%

8,97%

7,5%

26,81%

6,57%

21,47%

36,13%

1 week

9,90%

20,34%

19,51%

16%

20,74%

20,45%

25,88%

33,93%

2 weeks

16,75%

21,04%

16%

15%

17,00%

25,00%

30,00%

36,00%

1 month

22,13%

20,00%

23%

23%

21,00%

22,00%

24,00%

28,00%

IBC market turnover permonth (Rb bn)

67535

74768

78821,8

95000

88843

100262

109866

83258

USD rate by end ofmonth on MICEX (Rb)

5773

5782

5798

5827

5860

5887

5917

5960

DM rate by end of monthon MICEX (Rb)

3394

3352

3160

3250

3327

3414

3457

3361

USD average monthlygrowth rate by trend (per cent annual)

2,32%

1,89%

3,37%

6,17%

7,23%

5,67%

6,29%

9,08%

DM average monthlygrowth rate by trend (% annual)

22,1%

-1,24%

-46,68%

40,07%

50,82%

36,31%

-14,38%

1,56%

USD and DM aggregatemonthly gross turnover on MICEX (Rb bn)

1956

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