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Social services

5985

1660

2750

2943

3488

2691

3165

2995

3264

3196

3136

2849

Servicing state debt

5604

5473

3725

6139

5056

8951

8665

8418

4303

3469

2821

6179

Other expenditure

15569

2828

2146

3111

3209

4099

5802

4590

5210

5742

5334

6237

Overall expenditure

41644

12566

15284

21125

22781

24427

32258

24387

23040

24096

22529

25197

Loans less repayments

-8493

1796

1379

1767

1552

43

-5810

530

-135

-1690

462

-3720

Expenditure and loans minus repayments

38213

14187

16662

22892

24333

24470

26448

24917

22905

22406

22991

21477

Budget deficit (-)

-5061

175

-3280

-6258

-3289

-6214

-2594

-563

-282

223

1544

7333

Total financing, of which

1765

-7249

1252

1347

-336

161

-4761

-721

1887

3005

3297

-7271

domestic

3296

7074

2028

4911

3625

6052

7355

1284

-1605

-3228

-4841

-62

foreign

5061

-175

3280

6258

3289

6214

2594

563

282

-223

-1544

-7333

The data on the execution of the federal budhet between january to November 1999 are represented in Table 1. The deflation of the indices was made using CPI. As the table shows, both the level of tax receipts and the overall revenue level in real terms have grown substantially compared with the two preceding months.

For the eleven months 1999 the level of revenues reached 12.7% of GDP ( estimated) ( 10.1% of GDP over the respective period of 1998 and 10.0% of GDP for the whole 1998), including 10.8% of GDP at the expense of tax receipts ( 8.2% and 8.8% of GDP, respectively), and expenditures reached 14.2% of GDP ( 13.2% and 14.5% of GDP, respectively).

As of 1 October 1999, the level of budget deficit was 1.5 % of GDP ( 3.2% of GDP over the respective period of 1998 and 5.4% of GDP for the whole 1998). ( The difference between the dynamics of the deflated indices of budget execution and dynamics of the analogous indices in terms of share of GDP may be attributed to the difference between the dfaltor based on the price index and the GDP deflator).

According to the preliminary data on execution of the federal budget of Russia in 1999, the revenue made up Rb. 598.4 bln. ( 13.3% of GDP), expenditure- Rb. 666.1 bln. ( 14.8% of GDP), and deficit made up Rb. 67.7 bln.

In November 1999, tax receipts to the federal budget from the taxpayers controlled by th Ministry for Taxes and Charges made up a. Rb. 53 bln., and, considering also the revenues of the targeted budget Funds, th execution of the budget made up Rb. 63.5 bln., of which 10.7 bln. falls on RAO Gasprom.

Table 2

Real tax receipts to the federal budget according to the MTCs data ( prices as of January 1998)

1998

1999

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

25186

10804

12460

12711

10212

11120

12154

10565

6384

9054

11002

21542

10067

11586

12281

12287

10524

11369

12785

12838

12514

14238

16190

21455

In all, over 1999 the MTC collected Rb. 377 bln., or at 25% more than the amount set in the budgetary task by the government ( Resolution of 30 April 1999 # 477).

The dynamics of the real tax indebtedness in the federal budget is represented in Fig.1. As of 1 December 1999, the over volume of the indebtedness to the federal budget was a. Rb. 246 bln., while the value of the balnced, i.e. with the account of tax overpayments to the reached Rb. 1999 bln.

The execution of the consolidated budget between 1998 through 1999 is represented in table 3. As the comparison between the dynamics of tax receipts during the last two years shows, there is no substantial excess of the data for 1999 over the analogous indices for 1998, which may be noted in the course of analysis of the federal budget.

S. Batkibekov

Monetary Policy

In 1999 consumer price index totalled 36.7%. That corresponds to 2.64% on average per month. In particular, food price index grew up by 35.9%, the non-food price index – by 39.2%, the service price index – by 34.0%. In December 1999 the inflation rate amounted to 1.3%. The CPI increment was caused, primarily, by the growth in food prices – at 1.4%, while prices for non-food commodities grew by 1.1% only, and service prices – by 0.9%.

In Januay 2000 the pace of the CPI growth accelerated. According to preliminary estimates, the inflation rate in the first month of 2000 may reach the level of 3.1–3.4% (44.2–49.4% annualised). This would be the highest value since February 1999. The reason for the price growth is mainly the seasonal factors. The fall in the ruble exchange rate in early-January has not yet affected the domestic prices. Should the RCB keep to the rates of monetary aggregates’ growth (within 18–30% for the year) declared by the Main Principles of Monetary Policy in 2000, the inflation rates will not definitely exceed 25–30%.

Figure 1.

The increment of the money base in December 1999 made up 35.5 bln. rubles (from 272.0 to 307.5 bln. rubles), or a 13.05% growth. The evident consequences of a such policy were a sharp rise in balances of commercial banks at correspondent accounts in the RCB (see section IBC Market) and the jump of the ruble exchange rate during the first trading sessions in 2000 (see section Foreign Exchange Market). Between December 27, 1999, to January 10, 2000, the RCB foreign reserves dropped by $400 ml. (see fig. 2 and tab. 1). But the Bank of Russia foreign reserves resumed their growth then (up to $12.8 bln. by 21/1/2000). Nevertheless, the combination of different actions undertaken by the RCB (the recommencement of deposit taking, open market operations) allowed to sterilize the growth of money supply. As of January 24, 2000, the narrow money base amounted to 302 bln. rubles (7.2 bln. rubles less than as of January 10).

The further dynamics of the RCB foreign reserves will be mainly determined by the demand on the part of the RF Ministry of Finance, which needs hard currency to repay the Russian foreign debt. According to the Ministry of Finance, the planned payments in the first quarter of 2000 should make up about $2.43 bln. (according to the schedule – about $3 bln.) (The difference is equal to interest payments on debts to London and Paris Clubs, deferred unless the negotiations on restructuring of this particular part of the former USSR foreign debt are over), namely $1050 ml. in January, $640 ml. – in February, and $740 ml. – in March.

On January 24, 2000, the Russian Central Bank lowered the refinancing rate second for the time over the last one and a half year: from 55% to 45% annualised (see fig. 3). The last time such a low level of the RCB refinancing rate was noted in the first half 1998. That was not a surprise, because the current level of inflation and interest rates at the IBC market has not exceeded 15–20% annualised (the inflation rate in January is not the valid case due to strong seasonal effects). The lowering of the refinancing rate would contribute to a reduction of yields on long-term OFZ, while the upper limit on the level of yields at the domestic market for government securities (doubled refinancing rate) is still in place (The yields of GKO and OFZ matured in 2000 do not exceed 30–40% annualised).

Figure 2.

Figure 3.

Table 1.

Weekly dynamics of the monetary base and foreign reserves of the RCB
between October 1999 to January 2000.

Monetary Base

(bln. rubles)

Growth in Monetary Base (%)

Foreign Reserves

(bln. dollars)

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