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118,77

International activity

0,38

0,29

92,34

National defense

2,65

2,69

108,20

Law enforcement and national security

1,87

2,03

115,34

Basic research and development and technology promotion

0,31

0,30

104,46

Industry, power engineering and construction

0,48

0,44

96,10

Environmental protection and resources conservation, hydrometeorolgy, mapping and geodesy

0,08

0,08

104,24

Prevention and elimination of after-effects under emergency conditions and natural disasters

0,16

0,17

112,56

Education

0,75

0,77

109,69

Culture, art and cinematography

0,11

0,11

104,21

Health care and physical education

0,30

0,31

108,88

Financial support to budgets at other levels

5,45

5,32

103,72

Economy preparedness activity

0,00

0,01

200,00

Source: the RF Ministry of Finance, Russian State Statistics Committee (Goskomstat), estimates of the Institute for Economy in Transition (IET).

Among the key factors of increased expenditures are full implementation of the decisions on raise since October 1, 2003 of official wages of state-financed employees (by 1,33), wages for military personnel and equal persons and wages of public servants (by 1,11), wages of judges and attorneys (by 1,4), and scholarships ( doubled ) since the beginning of the academic year 2003/2004. Budget expenditures on judicial system in 2003 includes additional funding of new full-time job positions within the entire judicial system’s framework. The amount of federal budget expenditures allocated to wages of all categories of state-financed employees will grow to 435,5 bln rubles in 2004 (against 362,3 bln rubles allocated under the approved budget 2003). This will increase by 1,3 the share of federal budget expenditures allocated to wages in terms of percentage points.

The International activity item ( by 0,09 in terms of percentage points of GDP or by 18% in comparable prices ) is most of all affected by the reduction in federal budget expenditures. In addition, the budget 2004 provides for reduction in expenditures on industry, power engineering and construction by 0,04 in terms of percentage points of GDP or almost by 2% in real terms against the pervious year in comparable>

Macroeconomic Scenario Forecast for 2004

This section presents forecast on key macroeconomic parameters in 2004, namely GDP, tax revenues, federal budget revenues, CPI, export, import, gold and foreign exchange reserves, real exchange rate. The forecast was conducted on the basis of a system of structural econometric equations. Each of the foregoing parameters was treated by a specified equation including variables with logs having a relevant and economically logical impact on interpretable variable. Moreover, corresponding dummy variables were added to the equations, which enabled us to consider quarterly seasonal fluctuation of variables and their structural movements, as well as moving average components were employed, which allow autocorrelated remainders to be eliminated.

The section also presents a comparison of achieved estimates with those made by the RF Ministry of Economy, as well as the parameters specified in the Federal Budget Law 2004. For this purpose one of the most considered scenarios is based on the parameters of the budget 2004 and corresponds to the estimates of the RF Ministry of Economy.

Macroparameters were estimated on the basis of the preset scenarios of Brent oil prices, capital investments and M2. Basic economic trends are expected to remain the same throughout the entire forecasting interval.

Scenario 1:

Average price of Brent oil in 2004 varies from $24 to 25 US dollars per barrel, which is almost $4 US dollars less than the corresponding average annual price in 2003. Average growth M2 will not exceed 20% in 2004. Annual capital investment growth rate will account for 8% in 2004.

Scenario 2:

Average price of Brent oil is $28 US dollars per barrel throughout the entire forecasting interval, which corresponds approximately to that of 2003. In 2004, M2 will grow by 30%. Annual capital investment growth rate is about 8% in 2004.

One of the RF Ministry of Economy’s scenarios of the Russian economy development in 2004 predicts that the existing trends in economic development will remain the same and average prices of Urals oil will vary between 22 and 23 US dollars per barrel. Under this assumption capital investment growth rate (according to the RF Ministry of Economy’s estimates) is expected to account for 8% in 2004. The forecast of the RF Ministry of Economy fully agrees with Scenario 1 given that the estimated growth rate of M2 is 20% in 2004 according to the RF Central Bank.

Table 17

Scenarios of Brent Oil Prices, M2 and Capital Investments

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Oil price ( US dollar/barrel )

M2 ( bln rubles )

Investment rate of increase ( % )

Oil price ( US dollar/barrel )

M2 ( bln rubles )

Investment rate of increase ( % )

1st quarter 2003

31,4

2208,5

10,1

31,4

2208,5

10,2

2nd quarter 2003

26,1

2604,5

13,1

26,1

2604,5

13,1

3rd quarter 2003

28,4

2732,1

12,1

28,4

2732,1

12,1

4th quarter 2003

29,4

3212,7

13,4

29,4

3212,7

13,4

1st quarter 2004

26,0

3373,3

8,0

28,0

3453,7

8,0

2nd quarter 2004

25,0

3534,0

8,0

28,0

3694,6

8,0

3rd quarter 2004

24,0

3694,6

8,0

28,0

3935,6

8,0

4th quarter 2004

23,0

3855,2

8,0

28,0

4176,5

8,0

Till 4th quarter of 2003 inclusive – actual data, after 2003 – scenarios.

However, the key parameters of the federal budget law in 2004 are based on the parameters of the Russian socio-economic development forecast in 2004 and medium-term outlook. The key parameters of federal budget revenues are calculated in accordance with the macroeconomic forecast in 2004 which is based on the estimated average annual price of Urals oil of 22 US dollars per barrel, while the federal budget expenditures are based on the estimated basic oil price. The basic oil price is represented by the average Urals oil price over the last five years, 20 US dollars per barrel. Thus, the parameters that provide the basis of the federal budget 2004 agree with Scenario 1 as well.

Table 18

IET´s Estimates vs. RF Ministry of Economy´s Outlook

Scenario 1

Outlook for 2004

Outlook for 2004

Outlook for 2004

CPI ( annual growth rate in terms of % )

8–10

8,3

10,5

of GDP ( annual growth rate in terms of % )

5,2

4,0

5,1

Export ( total bln US dollars )

125

118,1

128,5

( total bln US dollars )

78,4

73,8

75,7

External reserves ( growth in bln US dollars )

7–15,

9,1

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