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17,1

Real exchange rate ( annual growth rate in terms of % )

4–5,

2,5

3,6

Referring to Table 18, inflation growth rate is estimated to be maintained within the range ( 8,3% ) scheduled by the RF Ministry of Economy for 2004. Estimated increase in gold and foreign exchange reserves in 2004 is about $9 bln US dollars, which also corresponds to the RF Ministry of Economy’s estimates ( from 7 to 15 bln US dollars ). However, GDP’s growth rate in 2004 is expected to be 1,2% less than the RF Ministry of Economy’s forecast. Volumes of export and import in 2004 are estimated to account for about $118 bln and $73,8 bln US dollars correspondingly, which is $7 and $4,6 bln US dollars less than the RF Ministry of Economy’s estimates. Estimated adjustments ( Scenario 1 ) of the real ruble exchange rate are 2% less on the average than the RF Ministry of Economy’s forecast. Even in case of a more optimistic scenario for oil prices ( Scenario 2 ), the real ruble exchange rates are 1% less on the average. The forecast of key parameters based on the structural econometric equations system agree with the RF Ministry of Economy’s scenario and hence the forecast.

The reduction in revenues caused by previous amendments to the tax and budget legislation in 2004 vs. 2003 was also considered in calculating predictive federal budget revenues, specifically reduction of VAT rate by 2 percentage points in 2004, growth in specific rate of mineral tax in case of oil production from 340 to 347 rubles per ton, as well as transfer of 1% of profit tax and a share of alcoholic products excise from the federal budget to the budgets of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to compensate local budgets’ losses incurred by abolition of sales tax. In case Brent oil prices average 24 US dollars per barrel in 2004 ( or Urals oil prices between 22 and 23 US dollars per barrel, which corresponds to the parameters of the federal budget revenues 2004 ) the federal budget is expected to lose about 125 bln rubles7 in 2004 due to the amendments to the tax and budget legislation. Consequently, the estimated federal budget revenues in 2004 account for about 2725 bln rubles (18,3% of GDP ). Given the expenditures approved to the amount of 2659,4 bln rubles in the federal budget law 2004, the federal budget surplus in 2004 will account for about 66 bln rubles according to our estimates. However, the federal budget law 2004 provides for a surplus to the amount of about 83 bln rubles in 2004. According to the optimistic scenario, federal budget revenues are estimated to be 2810 bln rubles ( 18,9% of GDP ) and surplus 150 bln rubles correspondingly, with average price of Urals oil in 2004 being about 26 US dollars per barrel.

Thus, given the same parameters of budget revenues, our estimates on federal budget surplus is 17 bln rubles less than that provided for in the federal budget law 2004.

Annex 2
The data on execution of budgets between 1996 through 2003

Table 19

General Government Budget ( %GDP)8

Federal budget

Local budgets

Extra budgetary funds

General Government Budget

1

2

3

4

5

1996

Total expenditures, including:

13,9

16,1

11,5

38,7

Tax revenues

12,0

12,9

9,2

34,2

Total expenditures, including:

22,0

17,1

11,1

47,1

Healthcare and physical training

0,2

2,6

1,1

3,9

Social policy

0,7

1,3

7,6

9,6

Transport, road network, communication and information technology

0,0

0,8**

1,0

1,8

Deficit/ Surplus

–8,1

–1,0

0,4

–8,5

1997

Total expenditures, including:

13,8

17,7

12,1

40,5

Tax revenues

12,0

14,3

9,9

36,3

Total expenditures, including:

20,5

19,1

12,0

47,9

Healthcare and physical training

0,4

2,8

1,4

4,6

Social policy

1,0

1,4

8,5

9,9

Transport, road network, communication and information technology

0,2

0.8**

1,4

3,5

Deficit/ Surplus

–6,7

–1,4

0,2

–7,4

Table 19 cont’d

1

2

3

4

5

1998

Federal budget

Local budgets

Extra budgetary funds

General Government Budget

Total expenditures, including:

11,5

15,1

11,4

35,5

Tax revenues

9,9

12,4

9,7

31,9

Total expenditures, including:

14,8

15,5

11,1

38,9

Healthcare and physical training

0,2

2,2

1,1

3,5

Social policy

1,4

1,1

7,4

9,9

Transport, road network, communication and information technology

0,7

1,0**

1,9

3,6

Deficit/ Surplus

–3,4

–0,4

0,3

–3,4

1999

Total expenditures, including:

12,9

13,4

9,5

33,8

Tax revenues

11,7

11,1

8,6

31,4

Total expenditures, including:

13,8

13,5

9,8

35,4

Healthcare and physical training

0,2

1,9

0,9

2,8

Social policy

1,0

0,9

6,3

7,8

Transport, road network, communication and information technology

0,7

1,0**

1,8

3,5

Deficit/ Surplus

–0,9

–0,1

–0,3

–1,6

2000

Total expenditures, including:

15,5

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