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7.04%

IPC Index (Mexico)

7336.65

0.30%

11.16%

IPSA (Chile)

95.95

-4.76%

-

Nikkei-225 (Japan)

19720.10

0.90%

0.92%

Straits Times (Singapore)

2118.65

0.13%

-

Seoul Composite(South Korea)

819.01

-3.11%

-

DAX-30 (Germany)

7587.13

-0.04%

10.99%

CAC-40 (France)

6102.73

2.27%

7.83%

Swiss Market (Switzerland)

6917.80

-0.64%

-

FTSE 100 (UK)

6099.60

0.30%

-

ISE National-100 (Turkey)

15315.29

5.12%

-

Foreign exchange market. In February 2000 the situation at the Russian foreign exchange market stabilised. The main factors that influenced the market were as follows: firstly, despite of the fact that between January to February the significant volume of external payments was effected, during the last month the RCB’s foreign reserves grew appreciably (see the section of report on the Monetary policy). In January 2000 Russia paid off to the IMF about $371 mln. and in February – about $391 mln. In February, the total volume of payments by the Russian external debts was $640 mln. Secondly, if such a high level of oil prices at the international markets will be kept for several forthcoming months, the volume of dollar supplies from exporters to the Russian exchange market should not be lower than the current level. Thirdly, the agreement between the Russian Government and the London club of creditors has alleviated the uncertainty about the CBR’s future exchange rate policy.

In January 2000, the official dollar exchange rate grew from 27.0 rubles/$ to 28.55 rubles/$ (see Fig.6). That corresponds to 5.74% a month, or 95.39% annualized. The ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT grew from 27.0031 rubles/$ to 28.5523 rubles/$, i.e. by 5.74% a month (95.31% annualized). The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate grew from 27.0433 rubles/$ to 28.6287 rubles/$, i.e. by 5.86% a month (98.11% annualized).

In February 2000, the growth pace of the dollar exchange rate dropped significantly: the official rate grew from 28.55 rubles/$ to 28.66 rubles/$. That corresponds to 0.39% a month, or 4.72% annualized. According to preliminary estimations, in February the ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT grew from 28.5523 rubles/$ to 28.7997 rubles/$ (as of February 24), i.e. by 0.87% a month (10.91% annualized). The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate grew from 28.6287 rubles/$ to 28.6631 rubles/$ (as of February 28). That corresponds to 0.12% a month (1.45% annualized).

In February 2000, the trading volumes in the SELT grew appreciably. According to the preliminary estimations, the overall trading volume of the most liquid ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’ contracts made up last month 91,385 bln. rubles and 86,347 bln. rubles, respectively. If so, the total volume of turnover by these contracts in February 2000 should be at about 16.3% superior to the respective index registered in January 2000.

Figure 6.

The record drop in the exchange rate of European currency to the level of 0.939 dollars/euro was registered at the international financial markets in late February 2000. That drop was caused by the fact that the problem of increase in the discount rate in the nearest future was not included in agenda of European Central Bank. Nevertheless, the drop in euro/dollar exchange rate did not affect the market of ‘ruble/euro’ seriously. According to preliminary estimations, in February the total trading volume by ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’ contracts in the SELT on euro made up 2250 mln. rubles. That is at about 7.4% superior to the respective index registered in January 2000.

In January 2000, the official euro exchange rate grew from 27.33 rubles/euro to 28.23 rubles/euro. That corresponds to 3.29% a month (47.52% annualized). The ‘today’ euro exchange rate in the SELT grew from 27.4241 rubles/euro to 28.0687 rubles/euro, i.e. by 2.35% a month (32.15% annualized). The ‘tomorrow’ euro exchange rate grew from 27.2200 rubles/euro to 28.0800 rubles/euro, i.e. by 3.16% a month (45.25% annualized).

In February 2000, the official euro exchange rate dropped from 28.23 rubles/euro to 27.44 rubles/euro (see Fig.7), i.e. by 2.8%. According to preliminary estimations, in February the ‘tomorrow’ euro exchange rate in the SELT dropped from 28.08 rubles/euro to 27.82 rubles/euro (as of February 28), i.e. by 0.93% a month.

Figure 7.

Table 2.

Indicators of Financial Markets.

month

October

November

December

January

February*

inflation rate (monthly)

1.4%

1.2%

1.3%

2.3%

1.3%

annualised inflation rate by the month’s tendency

18.2%

15.4%

16.8%

31.4%

16.8%

the RCB refinancing rate

55%

55%

55%

45%

45%

annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues

83.56%

81.10%

65.81%

45.50%

35%

volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)

25.77

9.67

12.13

8.52

20.0

yield to maturity on Vneshbonds issues by the end of the month (% a year):

4th tranche

60.9%

49.22%

46.64%

42.52%

35%

5th tranche

33.9%

29.77%

27.03%

25.51%

23.5%

6th tranche

34.4%

28.60%

24.08%

20.16%

20%

7th tranche

23.9%

19.75%

17.65%

16.85%

16.5%

INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:

overnight

44.0%

47.9%

15.14%

38.14%

15%

1 week

16.0%

10.0%%

20.0%

18.0%

12%

official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month

26.05

26.42

27.00

28.55

28.66

official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by the end of the month

27.43

26.84

27.23

28.23

27.44

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth

3.87%

1.42%

2.20%

5.74%

0.39%

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per DM growth

3.67%

-2.15%

1.45%

3.67%

-2.8%

volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD)

151.7

264.1

289.3

489.5

440

the value of the RTS-1 Index by the end of the month

97.80

112.36

177.71

172.31

170.9

growth in the RTS-1 Index (% a month)

17.66%

14.89%

58.16%

-3.04%

-0.8%

*/ estimated

S. Arkhipov, S. Drobyshevsky

Investment in the real sector

In 1999, for the first time over the last eight years, the dynamics of investment in capital assets became positive. The investment sphere adequately reacted to the growth in business activity in the real sector. Organizations and enterprises of all forms of ownership invested a total of Rb. 598.7 bln. in their capital assets, which is at 1.0% more than in the prior year. According to the RF Ministry of Economy, the volume of investment in capital assets at the expense of all sources of financing in the social sphere made up Rb. 140 bln., or 99.7% relative to the prior year.

Table 1.

Dynamics of investment in capital assets by socially- oriented sectors, as % to the prior year

1998

1999

Total

:

93,4

99,7

Housing and utilities

91,3

99,2

Housing

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