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62.4

Metallurgicalcomplex

8.2

9.1

11.1

10.7

11.0

12.3

10.4

Chemical and woodcomplex

9.3

10.1

9.3

6.9

5.0

7.2

7.2

Mechanical engineeringcomplex

23.1

20.0

11.9

12.2

11.7

8.3

8.3

Lightindustry

3.3

3.4

2.5

1.7

1.2

0.7

0.6

Foodindustry

8.1

9.1

6.4

8.1

7.8

6.1

7.4

Source: calculated acc. to the data ofRussian Goscomstat

Table 2.10

Structure of industrial productionpersonnel, %

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

Industry,total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Fuel and powercomplex

6.4

6.8

7.4

8.2

9.0

9.7

Metallurgicalcomplex

6.0

6.5

6.7

7.1

7.2

8.0

Chemical and woodcomplex

13.9

14.1

14.8

14.6

14.6

14.7

Mechanical engineeringcomplex

38.2

37.6

35.7

34.2

31.7

30.2

Lightindustry

10.9

10.7

9.2

9.0

9.2

8.5

Foodindustry

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.2

8.9

9.4

Source: Russian Goscomstat.

The data on the employment structure alsoshow the growth of the specific share of the fuel and power complex andmetallurgy in the whole number of the industrial and production personnel;meanwhile, both the relative and absolute numbers of the persons employed inthe mechanical engineering and light industry are dropping (see Table2.10,Fig.2.11). With the general reduction of the number of the industrial andproduction personnel, the absolute number of employed grew only in the fuel andpower complex. The number of employed in the mechanical engineering and lightindustry decreased abruptly.

Hence, the analysis of the structuralchanges shows the significant growth of the shares of the fuel and powercomplex and mechanical engineering in the industry structure. We believe thatthis result reflects not only the objectively conditioned conservation of therelatively high levels of production in the electric power sector and the dropof the investment purpose production, but also the difference between thelevels of competitiveness of different industries. According to the results ofthe studies, the branches of the fuel and power complex (except the coalextraction) and metallurgy are the most competitive in the Russian economy fromthe viewpoint of the international division of labor (according to thecalculations, these industries stay of high profitability even after transitionto the world prices, i.e., under the conditions of the open market economy). Asfor other industries (and rural economy) the production stays eitherunprofitable or of low efficiency with the world level prices for the productsthey produce and consume. As a result, the rapprochement between the domesticand world prices, at the existing technology structure of the Russian economy,will, inevitably, lead to the drop of production in the low competitivenesssectors, and, hence, dismantling of production. At the same time, thecompetitive industries maintain the high levels of production, investments, andemployment; this leads to the growth of their specific shares in the industrystructure.

Fig. 2.8

Fig. 2.9

Fig. 2.10

Fig. 2.11

Hence, in 1996, just as in the precedingyears, the industry dynamics was determined by the set of the economic factors,first of all, the process of dismantling of the inefficient sectors of industryand rural economy; all these have determined the reduction of the aggregatedomestic demand, and, hence, production in the competitiveindustries.

At the same time, the latest years haveshown the trend towards the gradual stabilization of the industrial productionand redistribution of the production, investments, and labor resources for thebenefit of the most competitive sectors. Taking into account the positivegeneral economy processes at the macroeconomic level, this allows to anticipatethe close culmination of the crisis restructuration period of the Russianeconomy and formation of the prerequisites for the steady productionstabilization and restoration of the industry growth.

2.3. Agro-IndustrialComplex

General characteristic

The year 1996 has not become the year of thecrucial changes in the rural economy. The conservation of the maincharacteristics of the agrarian policy conditioned the conservation of theformer trends in production. For the other hand, the wave of the electoralpromises and privileges stayed, firstly, within the limits of the alreadystable strategy of the agro-industrial complex (AIC), and, secondly, did notresult in the implementation due to the budgetary limitations. As a result, theyear 1996 can be characterized as a stagnation year for the agro-industrialcomplex.

The production recession continued for thewhole complex: 7% for the rural economy production (8% in 1995); 9% for thefood industry (9%); 41% in the tractor and agricultural machines building(36%); 5% for the mineral fertilizers production (this production has beengrowing during all the post-reform years, and the growth made 17% in 1995); and21% for the plants protection agents.

The production in the rural sector itselfdepends, in a great extent, upon the weather due to the use of the more andmore extensive methods. The low gross crops of the last year are conditioned,first of all, the low by the low yield resulting, in its turn, from theunfavorable weather in the main agriculture regions and the low level of use ofthe fertilizers and plants protection agents.

The recession in the food industry at therelatively stable consumption of the basic food is due to the growth ofproduction in the private part-time farms and the relevant self-support of thepopulation with certain agricultural products, the direct sale at markets(without use of the processing industry), and the growth of the consumption ofthe imported food in the largest cities.

The branches of the first sphere of the AICbump into the low effective demand in the rural economy and absence of therelevant financial structure.

In 1996, the direct federal transfers to therural economy were among the lowest for the last 5years: Rbl.8.6trln. or0.4% of the GDP; at the same time, the implementation of the 1996 approvedBudget for this parameter was 59%. Meanwhile, for the industry, power, andconstruction the relevant figure was only 53%. Nonetheless, no changes in therural economy support occurred: this is one of the main reasons of the lowlevel utilization of the budgetary investments in this sector.

In practice, the exchange conditions for therural economy have not changed from 1995 to 1996. The changes of the annualprices for the rural products and the production means for the rural economywere almost parallel (see Fig.2.12).

Fig. 2.12

Annual indexes of prices for rural products(series1) and production means for rural economy (series2)

Source: Russian Goscomstat

The rates of change of the rural productspurchase prices, of the processing industry purchase prices, and of the retailtrade prices are of almost the same level (se Figures2.13 and 2.14), thoughtwith seasonal fluctuations. Thus, just as in 1994, the policy ofunderestimation of the purchase prices for milk within the large milk periodled to the lack of the milk feedstock in the 4th quarter-year, and, hence, theoutdistancing growth of the purchase prices (see Fig.2.14). the growth of themilk purchase prices can be supposed for the first quarter of 1997 (judging bythe conjuncture poll, two thirds of the respondents expect such growth; thisconfirms the relatively high degree of familiarization of the producers withthis market1. As for the other products, the dynamic is similar, which confirmsour conclusion made in the previous reviews of IET2 as for the achievement of theequilibrium level by the relative prices in the AIC. No deterioration of thepricing parity for the rural economy seems possible without the governmental orregional interventions in the market pricing.

Fig.2.13

Quarter-year and annual indexes of theretail, wholesale, and purchase prices for meat in 1996

Source: Social Economy Situation of Russia.1996. Goscomstat, 1997.

Fig. 2.14

Quarter-year and annual indexes of retail,wholesale, and purchase prices for milk in 1996

Source: Social Economic Situation in Russiain 1996. Moscow: Goscomstat, 1997. P. 113-114; 131.

Main trends and shifts in plants growingand animals breeding

Plants growing. In1995, the growth of the plants growing and productivity was observed for allthe main crops except grain; as for the year 1996, it was the contrary. In1996, a very important drop was observed in the production and yield ofsunflower (by 33% and 30%, respectively), sugar-beet (16% and 14%), and flax(14% at the same yield). The crop and yield of the potatoes and vegetablesreduced, though not so importantly. The growth was observed only in the grainproduction, though it may seem very relative, taking into account the lowproductivity of 1995 (see Table2.11).

Table 2.11.

Gross harvest and productivity of maincrops in 1996


1996

1996 as % of:



1995

1991-1994

1986-1990

Gross crop, mn mt

Grain (weightafter processing)

69.3

109.3

73.6

66.4

Sugar-beet

16.1

84.3

72.2

48.5

Sunflower

2.8

66.7

100.0

90.3

Potatoes

38.5

96.5

106.9

107.2

Vegetables

10.7

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