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The reduction of the domestic demand and thelowering of the export efficiency for the metallurgy and chemical industryconditioned the renewal of the recession in these sectors. Compared with 1995,the reductions were the following: 8% for the iron ore mining; 5% for the steelproduction; 7% for the pipes manufacture; 35% for the aluminum rolling; 5% forthe mineral fertilizers production; 22 for the synthetic resins and plasticsproduction; and 38% for the chemical fibers and threads production. At the sametime, the production growth was observed for certain items: 3% for the aluminumproduction; 7% for the copper production; 5% for the zinc production; and 18%for the tires manufacture. The ferrous metallurgy has conserved the trendtowards the growth of the specific share of the state-of-the-art technologies:the shares of the converter and electrical steel in the total melting volumegrew from 60% in 1995 to 64% in 1996; the share of the continuous casting grewfrom 37% to 41%. In 1995 to 1996, in the non-ferrous metallurgy, thespecific share of the products produced by tolling from the give-and-takefeedstock reduced from 44% to 43% for aluminum and grew from 45% t0 51% forzinc and from 4.3% to 5% for copper.

The external demand is becoming a more andmore significant factor influencing the dynamics of the feedstock production.For certain products, it determines, in the decisive extent, the currentvolumes and dynamics of production. E.g., the specific share of the productionfor foreign markets in the total production volume reached, in 1996, 60% forthe ferrous metallurgy and 70% to 80% for aluminum, copper, mineralfertilizers, and cellulose.

The sharp drop of the investment activity inthe economy, due, in a great extent, to the influence of the Presidentialelections, conditioned the significant reduction of the investment mechanicalengineering production. In whole, the rates of reduction of the productionmeans production grew from 9.8% in 1995 to 14.5% in 1996. The most significantwas the reduction in the machine-tools manufacture (by 33%, compared with 1995)and in the tractors and agricultural machinery manufacture (by 41%). Thesituation in the automobile industry stayed stable enough: the general levelstayed the same as in 1995, while the manufacture of passenger cars grew by 4%.The significant growth of manufacture of personal computers from importedcomponents should be noted, as well (2.8‑fold, compared with the precedingyear).

The greatest production drop among the mainindustries, both compared with the pre-crisis level and with the precedingyear’s level, wasobserved for the light industry. The trend to the further production dropremained in the food industry, as well. The manufacture of the long usecommodities also reduced sharply (e.g., the manufacture of the tape recorders,VCRs, and TVs reduced by 67% to 71%). Under the stabilization of theeffective demand of the population, this is, obviously, explained by thegrowing import (growth of the imported products share in the structure of thedomestic market effective demand satisfaction), conditioned by the lowcompetitiveness of the domestic goods. This is confirmed by the results of thestudies by the statistic bodies in the administrative centers of the RussianFederation subjects. To the end of 1996, the specific shares of the importedgoods offered for sale in the total amount of the goods studied were thefollowing: 36% for sausages; 39% for butter; 38% for cheeses and vegetableoils; 62% to 65% for overcoats; 71% for men’s shirts; 79% for men’s shoes; 84% for ladies’ shoes; 94% for color TVs; 99% forVCRs. In whole, the specific share of the imported products in the commoditiesresources of the retail trade made 52% in 1996.

The analysis of the industry recessionstructure by sectors, based on the 1992 prices, shows that the greatest sharein the total reduction of production in Russia is due to the mechanicalengineering and light industry (see Fig.2.7). The reduction in these branchesdirectly conditioned almost 40% of the recession. Besides, the reduction of theeffective demand from these industries conditioned a significant share ofrecession in the metallurgy and chemical industry, and, hence, the fuel andpower complex. This allows to consider the mechanical engineering and lightindustry as the main generators of the industry recession in Russia. Moreover,if the recession in the light industry is due, most of all, to its lowefficiency, the recession in the mechanical engineering accumulated the effectsof all the main factors of the recession, first of all, the low efficiency,investment crisis, and demilitarization. Agreat role in the production drop,especially in the mechanical engineering, chemical, and food industries wasplayed by the drop of efficiency and production decrease in the rural economywhich led to the sharp drop of demand for the agricultural equipment andmineral fertilizers and shortening of the feedstock base of the foodindustry.

Structural shifts

The differences in the production dynamicsby main sectors of industry conditioned the significant changes in theindustrial production structure (see Table2.7, Fig.2.8). As the datareflecting, together with the changes of the physical production volumes, thedynamic of the prices for the products of these sectors, show, the last yearsare characterized by the sharp growth of the fuel and power complex share inthe industry structure; the fuel and power complex is becoming not only thebasis of the export potential, but the basis of the Russian economy in whole.Taking into account the stable demand for the power resources in the foreignmarkets and the remaining gap between the domestic and world prices for themain power resources, the further growth of the specific share of the fuel andpower complex in the industry structure is possible.

The specific share of the metallurgicalcomplex grew, as well, compared with the pre-reform level. At the same time,the shares of the mechanical engineering and light industry decreasedpointedly. The above trends are also seen when analyzing the structure of theindustrial production in comparable prices. Thus, the specific share of thefuel and power complex (in the 1995 prices) grew from 20.4% in 1990 to 30.9% in1996; during the same period, the specific shares of the mechanical engineeringand light industry reduced from 22.6% to 17.5% and from 7% to 2%, respectively(see Table2.8, Fig.2.9).

Together with the change of the productionstructure, the structures of the capital investments and labor resources arechanging quite significantly. The analysis of the capital investmentsstatistics shows the important growth of the fuel and power complex andmetallurgical complex in the investments in industry. At the same time, theimportant reduction of the investments in all the other industries is observed.Thus, the share of the fuel and power complex in the structure of capitalinvestments in industry (in the current prices) grew from 39.1% in 1990 to62.4% in 1996. At the same time, the specific shares of the capital investmentsreduced from 23.1% to 8.3% for the mechanical engineering and from 3.3% to 0.6%in the light industry (see Table2.9, Fig.2.10).

Fig. 2.7.

Contributions of main industries in totalrecession of industrial production in 1991-96, %

Table 2.7.

Structure of industrial production incurrent prices, %

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Industry,total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Fuel and powercomplex

12.2

11.9

25.3

26.7

29.4

31.0

35.8

Metallurgicalcomplex

12.0

11.7

17.8

17.1

16.6

17.1

15.5

Chemical and woodcomplex

12.9

13.2

13.5

11.4

11.7

13.1

10.9

Mechanical engineeringcomplex

30.8

25.7

20.5

20.3

19.1

17.7

18.1

Lightindustry

12.1

16.5

7.1

5.2

3.1

2.4

1.9

Foodindustry

11.7

13.3

9.8

12.4

11.9

11.3

10.7

Source: calculated acc. to RussianGoscomstat

Table 2.8

Structure of industrial production incomparable prices*, %

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Industry,total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Fuel and powercomplex

20.4

21.2

23.4

24.8

28.5

29.1

30.9

Metallurgicalcomplex

14.4

14.2

13.3

13.1

14.3

15.9

16.4

Chemical and woodcomplex

14.1

14.1

13.9

12.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

Mechanical engineeringcomplex

22.6

21.9

22.4

22.0

19.3

18.1

17.5

Lightindustry

7.0

6.8

5.6

5.0

3.4

2.5

2.0

Foodindustry

12.0

11.7

11.4

12.1

12.7

12.1

11.9

* 1995 prices

Source: Russian Goscomstat; calculations byauthors.

Table 2.9

Structure of capital investments inindustry from all sources of financing
(currentprices), %

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Industry,total

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Fuel and powercomplex

39.1

39.7

52.8

55.7

57.6

61.7

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