The direct investments in the Russianeconomy amounted to US$ 1.4 bn, which is by 30% more than for the relevantperiod of the preceding year. The registered volume of the direct investmentsin the Russian economy formed at the level of the first nine months of 1995,i.e., about US$ 300 mn.
The significant growth of the foreignliabilities for the portfolio investments took place. The capital inflow to thegovernmental management sector was determinant; this is due to theparticipation of the non-residents in the Russian securities market, first ofall, the GKOs and OFZs.
In whole, during the nine months, the netinflow of the foreign investments in the GKOs and OFZs amounted toUS$ 1.7 bn.
It should be noted that the non-residentswere indirectly presented by the Russian crediting entities in the GKOs andOFZs market on a larger scale. This is confirmed, in particular, by the sharpgrowth of the foreign money mobilized by the commercial banks and investmentfunds; this is hard to explain from the viewpoint of the dynamics andsituations of their international ratings. The calculations show that suchindirect participation of the non-residents in the governmental securitiesmarket of January to September 1996 grew by US$ 3.7 bn. It seems possible thatthe investments inflow by the above channels means the repatriation of theformer exported Russian capital to be legalized, in particular, forparticipation in the market privatization. The estimated aggregate inflow ofthe foreign capital to the GKOs and OFZs market for the considered period andall the possible forms (using both the official and unofficial investmentschemes) amounts to US$ 5.4 bn.
The capital export in form of the portfolioinvestments is executed, mainly, by commercial banks.
The increase of the foreign currency in thenon-banking sector confirming the renewal of the economy dollarization processwas US$ 7.7 bn in January to September 1996. The growth of the demand for thecash hard currency was determined by the reduction of the interest rates on theRuble instruments, the rapprochement of the profitability of the Rubleinvestments to the one of the investments in the cash US Dollar, and theremaining problem of the mutual non-payments stimulating the use of the cashhard currency in the non-registered channels of the moneycirculation.
During the first nine months of 1996, theforeign assets in the Russian commercial banks reduced by US$ 0.2 bn, while theliabilities increased by US$ 2.6 bn; this led to the reduction of the netforeign assets by US$ 2.9 bn. The decrease of the foreign assets is due, in agreat extent, to the “withdrawal” by the Russian banks of the monies from thecurrent and deposit accounts abroad, in order to satisfy domestic currencymarkets.
The greatest increase of the foreignliabilities of the commercial banks was due to the growth of the assets placedby the non-residents on the current and deposit accounts in Russian banks.Hence, the volume of the loans and credits, mobilized by the Russian banks fromabroad, was continuously growing.
The negative balance for the item “Tradecredits and advances” amounted to US$ 8.1 bn; this meant the growth of theassets of the foreign non-residents.
The positive balance for the item “Grantedloans and credits” amounted to US$ 7.9 bn; this means the relaxation of therequirements to the non-residents.
The balance for the mobilized loans andcredits was positive and amounted to US$ 8.2 bn (for the first nine months of1995, it amounted to US$ 2.5 bn). This means the growth of the Russianliabilities towards the non-residents.
As,of 1 October 196, the international goldand hard currency reserves of Russia amounted to US$ 15.1 bn; during the firstnine months of 12996, they reduced by US$ 2.1 bn. However, during the periodunder consideration, the stocks of the monetary gold increased by US$ 0.9 bn,while the hard currency reserves decreased by almost US$ 3 bn.
The above reduction was seen on thebackground of the growing demand of the residents for the cash hard currencyand the massive escape of the non-residents from the GKOs-OFZs marketaccompanied with conversion of the received assets in Rubles to hard currencieswith their further repatriation.
Despite the unfavorable monetary situation,the financial control bodies managed to conserve the Russian monetary and hardcurrency reserves at an acceptable level.
1 As for the results of the poll, see Appendix IIIhereto.
2 See IET reviews “Russian Economy. Trends and Outlooks”, issues 14and 15.
3 As for the results of the poll, see Appendix IIIhereto.
4 For the reasons of such important growth see also the “ExternalTrade” secton.
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