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35.17

37.10

37.40

32.94


Dynamic ofarrears to consolidated Budget of Russia in 1996

Jan. 96

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

Sept.

October

Novem.

Decem.


GDP (Rbl.trln.)

166

322

508

691

876

1066

1260

1403

1659

1819

2031

2256


Arrears total, Rbl.bn*

78717.9

80979.0

83740.8

105642

118040

115600

108655

127692

132311

135335

147138

128185


Inflation in % toDecember 1992

1829.2

1880.4

1933.1

1975.6

2007.2

2031.3

2045.5

2041.4

2047.5

2072.1

2111.

2141.04


Arrearsincrease

21928.4

2261.1

2761.8

21901.6

12398.5

-2440.8

-6944.9

19037.7

4618.9

3023.3

11803.7

-18953


MonthlyGDP

166

156

186

183

185

190

194

143

256

160

212

225


Arrears increase in %of monthly GDP

13.21

1.45

1.48

11.97

6.70

-1.28

-3.58

13.31

1.80

1.89

5.57

-8.42


Arrears increasedeflated

11.74

0.03

0.26

10.15

5.33

-1.90

-3.79

9.43

2.07

0.69

4.37

-9.81


Arrears total in % ofmonthly GDP

43.03

43.06

43.32

53.47

58.81

56.91

53.12

62.55

64.62

65.31

69.69

59.87


Arrears totaldeflated

47.42

51.91

45.02

57.73

63.81

60.84

56.01

89.30

51.68

84.58

69.41

56.97


* Thearrears were calculated using the methodology differing from the one usedbefore.

Several factors of the reduction of the taxinflows may be separated13.

1) The main reason for the reduction of theBudget incomes was the growth of the tax arrears. The real volume of arrearsfor January 1996 (see Table1.8) grew by 42.1%. However, in January, the RFState Fiscal Service changed the methodology of calculation of the tax arrears.If the older methodology is used to estimate the January growth, thecalculations yield 18.1%; if the new methodology is used for the monthscompared it yields 35.7%. The accumulated volume of arrears to the consolidatedBudget in constant prices grew by 37.4% in January1996, compared with January1995. It should be noted, that, in January 1995, the growth of the real volumeof arrears made 3.5% for the Federal Budget and 7.1% for the consolidatedBudget. To a large extent, this seasonal growth effect is due to the growth ofthe volume of the taxes charged in the first month of the followingquarter-year; this leads to the growth of the arrears at the lack of liquidassets.

The quantitative estimate of thecontribution of the arrears growth in the reduction of the tax inflows at thebeginning of 1966 is also complicated by the lack of the information on thestructure of the arrears growth. The latter, besides the taxes not transferredto the Budget for the liabilities of the current month, includes the penaltiesfor the non-fulfillment of the fiscal liabilities of the previousperiods.

The growth of the arrears was additionallyactivated by the badly thought over mechanism of grant of tax deferment fixedby the Presidential Decree of 19January1996. About 30,000 tax payers weregranted the deferment. Not less important was that the indebtedness newlycreated in the first quarter of 1996 did not influence the decision on thedeferment for the arrears accumulated before 1January1996.

However, even taking into account the changeof the methodology, the seasonal character of their dynamic, and the mechanismof grant of the deferment, one can say that the growth of the arrears inJanuary1996 was conditioned by the high political incertitude and was animportant factor for the taxation crisis.

2) The growth of the scales of the illegalevasion from the taxes payment in any ways, including, very important, bytransactions sing cash and not reflected in the accountancy, also became afactor of the tax inflows growth. An indirect confirmation of this is thegrowth of the share of cash in the money aggregate M2 in the first half year of1996 by 2.5 percentage points (see Table1.16).

3) Due to the serious enough growth of thedebtor’s indebtedness,the taxation basis for the profit tax and VAT reduced. As Table1.8 shows, atthe beginning of 1996, the volume of the debtor’s indebtedness grew sharply (from191% of the GDP in December1995 to about 280% of the GDP in the first half of1996). One of the possible factors having accelerated the growth of the mutualnon-payments was the ban, introduced at the beginning of the year, to cut theelectric power supply to consumers in the event they fail to pay thesuppliers.

Table 1.8.

1996

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

Sept.

October

Nov.

Dec.

Indebtednessfor payment of labor remuneration (as of the end of the month),Rbl.bn

20804

22488

24325

24748

28476

29926

33950

36022

40235

43110

46624

47151

GDP (Rbl.trln.)

166

322

508

691

876

1066

1260

1403

1659

1819

2031

2256

GDP by months(Rbl. trln.)

166

156

186

183

185

190

194

143

256

160

212

225

Debtor’sindebtedness as for the end of the month (Rbl.trln.)

379,8

408,9

464,5

502,6

518,8

542,2

567

578,9

608,4

637,8

664,8

-

Creditor’s indebtedness as for the end of the month(Rbl.trln.)

521,3

547,2

616,2

658,9

691,8

749,3

782,9

802

857,6

888,5

918,2

-

Inflation (to December 1991)

1829,2

1880,4

1933,1

1975,6

2007,2

2031,3

2045,5

2041,4

2047,5

2072,1

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