1.2. Change of balanceof assets on foreign currencies accounts in banks
Balanceas of beginning of period
Balanceas of end of period
2.5. Other exteriorfinancing
-Repayment of principal of loan
Inflation and policy of the RF CentralBank. In August 1996, the consumer prices indexreduced by 0.2% (deflation). This is due to not only the strict monetarypolicy, but also the seasonal prices fluctuation. In September-October 1996,the tendency of the inflation rate decrease was superseded by the inverse one.In September 1996, the consumer prices index grew by 0.3% (or 3.7% in theannual calculation); in October to December 1996, the average monthly inflationwas 1.5%.
The dynamic of the monetary sets in Januaryto August 1996 shows the excess of the actual values over the limitations setby the monetary program of the RF Government and Central Bank for 1996,coordinated with IMF. Thus, as of 1 August, the money base was Rbl. 131.1 trln.at the limit Rbl. 127.9 trln., i.e., the excess was 2.5% (see Table 1.16). Theacceleration of the prices growth rate in September to October 1996 shows thatthe growth of demand for money could not compensate the excessive emissionalactivity in the pre-elections period.
In October, for the second time in 1996,Russia did not receive from the IMF the due tranche of the EFF credit. Therigid position of the IMF management resulted from the aggravation of the taxescollection situation of August-October 1996. The financing under the EFFprogram was recommenced only in January 1977
Nevertheless, simultaneously with the delayof the October tranche, the leading agencies Standard & Poor Corp.,Moody’s InvestorServices, and IBCA declared the assignment to Russia the internationalcrediting ratings BB (for Governmental loans) and Ba2 (for corporate loans).Russia took the 15th place in the rating of the borrowing countries, i.e.,higher than the Governmental experts and foreign investors hadexpected.
The significant decrease of theprofitabilities in the financial markets allowed to the Central Bank to reduce,on 21 October, the refinancing rate (see Fig. 1.10). The new value was fixed atthe level 60% annual which agreed with the actual 40% annual rate. At thattime, the mean weighted profitability of the GKOs equaled 68%.
In October, the refinancing system saw itsfurther development. It was decided to divide the GKOs-OFZs market dealers intothe starting ones and the rest. The starting dealers were to assume theobligation to purchase at the initial auctions at least 1% of the currentissue; for this they were authorized to use the liquidity windows, i.e., takefrom the RF Central Bank unsecured overnight credits and be entitled to executethe repurchase transactions25.
From November 1996, the new normatives ofthe mandatory reserves for commercial banks took force. Thus, for the Ruble ondemand accounts with less than 30 days maturity, the rates were reduced from18% to 16% for the up to 30 days maturity; and from 14% to 13% for the up to90 days maturity. For the hard currency accounts, the norm was increased from2.5% to 5%.
In December 1996, the above mechanism servedfor a significant growth of the refinancing (up to Rbl. 3.5 trln., whichexceeds 60% of the average monthly increase of the M2 in 1996).
The second half of 1996 showed the tendencyto a certain absolute reduction of the available monetary mass and thesimultaneous growth of the monetary mass M2. Thus, in the first four months ofthe second half of 1996, the ready cash (M0) reduced by 10.2%, the monetarybase reduced by 4.2% against the growth of the monetary mass M2 by 4.4% (seeTable 1.16). This reflects the growth of the monetary multiplier from 2.07 asof the end of July up to 2.25 as of the end of October. Firstly, the reductionof the monetary base was due to the currency policy of the Central Bank havingto make currency interventions at the exchange market and withdraw Rubles fromcirculation. Secondly, from 11 July, the reserve requirements for the depositsin commercial banks reduced by 2 percentage points. Thirdly, under thepolitical incertitude due to the elections and the following illness of the RFPresident, the demand of the population for the hard currency grew. Thisresulted in the reduction of the ready money in hands of the population, and,hence, the growth of the credit multiplier M2.
State securities marketsituation. The dynamic of the interest rate in theGKOs-OFZs market in the second half-year was determined rather by thefundamental factors than by the short-term effects of liquidity and politicalrisks. This showed itself in the fact that, in contrast to 1995 and first halfof 1996, the volumes of the bonds placed by the Ministry of finance influencedless and less the cost of servicing of the internal borrowings. This situationcan be explained by the inflow of foreign investments to this market. Thegrowth of the acceptance of non-residents in this market allowed to theMinistry of finance to eliminate the effects of the liquidity limitation in thefinancial markets and smoothened the fluctuations of the interest ratesconserving the high enough rates of growth of the circulating State securities(see Table 1.5.and Fig. 1.4).
In September and October, the general levelof profitability reduced from the weekly 1.5%-1.6% (78%-83% annual) at thebeginning of September to the weekly 1.1%-1.2% (57%-62% annual) in the lastthird of October (see Fig. 1.11). A series of leaps ofd profitability observedin the market during this period, was due, in a great extent, by thecirculation of the rumors on the state of health of the RFPresident.
In October, the mean weighted profitabilityto maturity was 58% annual, with the continuing growth of the volumes forplacement. The volumes of the secondary market also continued growing: from theweekly Rbl. 12 to 15 trln. as of the beginning of September to the Rbl. 16 to19 trln. as of the end of October. In November, the market of the Statesecurities continued showing the tendency to the prices growth for all theseries. The mean weighted profitability to maturity felt from the 80% to 90%annual as of the beginning of October to the 45% to 55% in the second half ofthe same month. The lowered level of the political incertitude due to thesuccess of the surgical operation of B. Yeltsin led, in November, to thefurther decrease of the bonds profitability. In October and November, theturnover of the secondary market stayed stable, at the level Rbl. 16 to19 trln. weekly.
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