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1.2%

1.9%

1.0 – 1.5%

annualised inflation rate by the month’s tendency

3.7%

15.4%

25.3%

12.7–19.6%

the RCB refinancing rate

80%

60%

60%

48%

interest rate on deposits in Moscow Sberbank for one month (end of the month)

48%

48%

30%

30%

auction yield on three-month GKO (end of the month)

69.58%

42.17%

42.17%

42.17%

auction yield on six-month GKO (end of the month)

94.00%

58.46%

38.1%

32.59%

auction yield on OFZ (end of the month)

91.07%

90.03%

43.81%

37.84%

auction yield on OGSZ (end of the month)

75.66%

77.88%

52.7%

52.7%

annualised GKO yield to maturity:

less than 1 month

41.3%

36.5%

35.36%

28%

1-3 months

51.9%

47.4%

41.88%

37%

3-6 months

68.1%

60.9%

53.49%

39%

average yield on all issues

60.9%

54.1%

48.4%

37.5%

annualised yield to maturity on OFZ issues

3 tranche

78.47%

59.18%

34.46%

36.83%

4 tranche

79.86%

61.37%

34.99%

37.38%

5 tranche

525.09%

75.79%

37.94%

54.44%

6 tranche

221.01%

565.52%

52.54%

74.35%

7 tranche

148.22%

138.70%

186.58%

73.06%

8 tranche

392.05%

89.73%

69.85%

140.48%

9 tranche

89.01%

69.58%

119.34%

10 tranche

44.13%

turnover of GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)

64285

77842

77155

85000

the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ (trillion rubles)

197.533

214.9

227.8

240

nominal surplus of the overall value of outstanding GKO–OFZ compared to the previous month

5%

8.8%

6%

5.4%

IBC – INSTAR rate (annual %) on loans by the end of the month:

overnight

53.39%

43.83%

18.1%

25%

1 week

52.36%

41.33%

30.78%

37%

2 weeks

48.96%

39.67%

35.26%

35%

1 month

48.05%

39.40%

39.06%

40%

turnover of IBC market a month (billion rubles)

32360

37254

38155

40000

effective yield on Vnesheconombank’s bonds. USD:

3 tranche

13.4%

11.8%

10.6%

10.6%

4 tranche

14.6%

13.2%

11.8%

12%

5 tranche

15.3%

13.5%

12.4%

12.5%

6 tranche

14.9%

13.4%

12.3%

12.4%

7 tranche

15.0%

13.5%

12.5%

12.7%

official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month

5396

5455

5508

5560

official exchange rate of ruble per DM by the end of the month

3538

3609

3597

3585

average annualised exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth

11.3%

12.9%

12.3%

11.9%

average annualised exchange rate of ruble per DM growth

-13.2%

2.0%

-3.9%

-5.5%

gross turnover at the currency exchange market a month (billion rubles)

1175

822

719

1250

turnover at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD):

292.24

483.35

183.983

100

average annualised return at the stock market in the RTS:

-13.53%

15.8%

-12.5%

-5%

RTS market portfolio risk:

12.26%

59.7%

60.56%

30%

*/ estimate

Arkhipov S.A.. Drobyshevsky S.M.

Investment Process



According to some estimations, the overall volume of investments should shrink by 18% this year, against the last one.

Because of a high risk of long- term investments, the investment sphere still remains rather unattractive for both banking capital, domestic and foreign investors, and the population.

In the conditions of enterprises’ worsening financial situation and due to a lack of their own capital for investing, it is banking credit rate which becomes a crucial factor. However, the said rate is still superior to production profitability one. For banks, it is a high risk of an untimely recovering of issued loans which is such a factor of risk.

The situation in terms of enterprises using their own capital as a source for financing investments intensified significantly in 1996. A. 80% of overall volume of investments are financed at the expense of both enterprises’ and organizations’ own and attracted capital. The shrinkage of profit as a resource for production development has not allowed to increase amount of the above capital spent on investing. Enterprises’ financial situation deteriorated significantly in 1996, as compared with 1995. The share of unprofitable companies in industry grew from 30% up to 40%, given the respective index is rather higher in basic branches.

In the conditions of a lack of enterprises’ own capital, loans could not be used efficiently, either.

Table 6

I quarter

II quarter

III quarter

October

The Central Bank’s refinancing rate, % annualized *)

133

120

98

60

Prices indices in industry for finished products ( over quarter), % annualized

108,7

105,2

105,2

102,8

Real effective interest rate, % annualized

96,0

97,9

75,4

38,2

Long- term credits issued to economy and the population, as of the end of the respective period, in % to volume of all credit placements

9,0

7,3

8,6**)

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