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  • general availability and higher quality of social services,including, above all, health care and general education;
  • alleviation of poverty as monetary incomes grow thanks to economicgrowth and reduced differentiation of incomes through targeted social supportmeasures and redistribution of income in favor of low-income sections of thepopulation;
  • improved demographic situation thanks to reduced mortality,creation of preconditions for stabilized natality and subsequent demographicgrowth;
  • creation of economic conditions enabling able-bodied population touse own income to increase consumption, including purchase and maintenance ofcomfortable housing, access to better education and health care services, and afitting life>
  • adaptation of vocational training and the structure of professionaltraining to labor market requirements;
  • differentiated and personalized education through the developmentof education programs suited to different groups – from gifted children to thehandicapped;
  • integrated renovation of facilities and laboratories of educationalestablishments, introduction of computer-assisted education;
  • real access to health care for broad sections of thepopulation;
  • optimized spending on health care from the oblast budget, moreeffective use of resources through the restructuring of treatment andpreventive medicine establishments;
  • refurbishment and construction of cultural and artsestablishments.

The main indicators of changes in theoblast’s social andeconomic situation brought about by the Program are:

  • gross regional product;
  • industrial production;
  • taxes and other mandatory payments collected in the oblast, andrelated budgetary effect (Tables 19 and 20);
  • revenues of organizations showing the program’s commercial effectiveness (Table21);
  • number of jobs and related social effect (Table 18).
  • An effect computed for a given point in time is called a currenteffect, relevant integral effects are defined as a sum total of current effectsover a certain program period.

Table 18

Effectiveness Indicators of ProgramActivities

Number ofjobs

Payments tobudget

Profit

Socialeffect

total

new

federal

oblast

persons

mn rubles (2001prices)

Total

32,167

15,012

12,564.2

7,321.9

17,527.8

3,781.4

The per capita gross regional product inKaliningrad oblast in 2000 adjusted for the purchasing power parity index was3,800 US dollars, the indicator in Poland was 6,600 US dollars. Assuming thecontinued 4 percent annual growth of the GDP in Poland (with the purchasingparity power growing annually at 5 percent), this indicator will amount to9,000 US dollars in 2010. In 2000, the indicator in Lithuania was 5,600 USdollars, and given the average growth rates and purchasing power growth overthe last five years, it will reach 7,000 US dollars within the coming 10years.

Assuming that the Program is fullyimplemented, the per capita gross regional product in Kaliningrad oblast willgrow 2.4 times over ten years, and the per capita gross regional productadjusted for the growth of the purchasing power parity will increase 1.9 times,to 7200 US dollars. It follows that Kaliningrad oblast will get markedly closerto Poland and catch up with Lithuania in terms of economicdevelopment.

During the program period budget revenue atall levels will increase more than 2.7 times and will amount to over RUR 19 bn(in 2001 prices), including revenue of the federal budget – over 3.8 time (more than RUR 12bn).

Per capita budget allocation will increasealmost two-fold and will amount to some 7,000 rubles. The regional budget willcease to receive subsidies from the federal budget as early as2004.

Table 19

Tax Revenues Generated in Kaliningradoblast (RUR M, 2001 prices)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

CurrentPayments to the Federal Budget

1526

3117

3863

4732

6853

7721

9433

11071

12064

12564

IntegralPayments to the Federal Budget

1526

4643

8506

13238

20091

27812

37245

48316

60380

72944

CurrentPayments to the Oblast Budget

1137

2064

2618

3561

4725

5518

6210

6891

7091

7322

IntegralPayments to the Oblast Budget

1137

3201

5819

9380

14105

19623

25833

32724

39815

47137

Table 20

Revenue Generating Effect from the Program(RUR M, 2001 prices)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006-2010

Current FederalBudget Effect

1,904.9

396.6

1,230.5

3,567.3

46,569.5

Integral FederalBudget Effect

1,904.9

2,301.5

3,532

7,099.3

53,668.8

Current OblastBudget Effect

1,452.69

1,739.75

2,655.6

3,853.43

31,702.83

Integral OblastBudget Effect

1,452.69

3,192.44

5,848.04

9,701.47

41,404.3

Table 21

Business Stimulating Effect from theProgram (RUR M, 2001 prices)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Current Effect

-5884,32

-11089,2

-9208,83

-4370,66

6849,22

9237,599

11522,74

12908,06

13605,6

Integral Effect

-5884,32

-16973,5

-26182,3

-30553

-23703,8

-14466,2

-2943,45

9964,61

23570,21

EnvironmentalImplications of the Program

The Program will stabilize the sanitary andepidemiological situation in Kaliningrad oblast, improve health indicators inthe region, and reduce the damage caused to the environment.

Completion of construction (reconstruction)of water purification systems, water supply and sewage systems in townships andcommunities in Kaliningrad oblast will improve the environmental situation inthe Baltic Sea and the rivers that flow into it, as well as the bays. It isalso planned to upgrade the quality of potable water to the correspondingstandards.

Upon completion of the measures under theProgram aimed at recycling and salvaging of solid municipal and industrialwaste, over 400,000 metric tons of waste will have been recycled, detoxicated,and isolated from the environment, including:

  • 141,500 tons of 1st>
  • 1,500 tons of 2nd>
  • 31,400 tons of 3rd>
  • 94,800 tons of 4th>
  • up to 40,000 tons of unhazardous waste (recycled, -able resources),and
  • 23,200 tons of solid municipal waste.

Introduction of modern low-wastetechnologies, waste recycling, detoxication and collection installations willmake it possible to significantly reduce waste disposal areas, to keep downtransportation of waste to dumping grounds (by 40,000 tons of unhazardous wasteper year, and by 20,000 tons of hazardous waste per year), which ought todrastically lower the likelihood of emergency contamination of surface andunderground waters.

Development and introduction of a Programfor integrated monitoring of the Kaliningrad Oblast ecosystem will make itpossible to keep track of changes to the environment, the degree ofcontamination of the soil and plants with heavy metals and radio-nuclide,quality of water along the coastal area and to forecast oil contaminationhazards.

________________

Chief of Staff,

Government, Russian Federation

Minister, Russian Federation

I. Shuvalov

APPENDICES

Appendix1

Program activities

Item No.

Activity

Size offinancing (mln rubles)

Term(years)

Expected results

Transportation complex

Portcomplexes and facilities

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