WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 6 |

As an illustration of consequences of this policy we consider the case of the nominal money aggregate growth in 1996 to 470 trillion rubles (21% of expected GDP’96) and what level of real money balances will occur. The following assumptions hold. First, the money aggregate attains the aimed level of 21% of expected GDP’96 equalled to 2242.9 trillion rubles up to the end of 1997 only. Second, up to the end of current year the Government will keep the monetary targets on 1996.

Our estimates show that the expected strengthening of inflationary processes will lead to a decrease in the demand for money (up to 33 percentage points for 1997). The fall of real GDP can reach 5% per year. The inevitable failure at the financial markets and cessation of foreign lending by the IMF program do not allow the Russian Government to finance the budget deficit without money emission. The additional emission of rubles will have to increase by 91 trillion rubles (according to the project of the Federal Budget Law for 1997).

In that case the broad money aggregate M2 will grow by 106.3% (up to 642.8 trillion rubles) till the end of 1997. The annual consumer price index will sum up 135 – 140%1. The nominal dollar exchange rate will rise to 13000 – 14000 rubles / $1 up to January 1998 (holding the real exchange rate constant). The nominal GDP will increase up to 5 – 5.1 trillion rubles, i.e. the actual ratio M2 to GDP will decline from 14% (in December 1996) to 12.5% up to the end of 1997 against the desired by deputies the process of monetarization of GDP.

On November 15, 1996 the important event from the view of the Federal Budget deficit financing occured. The Russian Ministry of Finance placed the first tranche of eurobonds by the sum of $1 milliard. The maturity is 5 years, coupon interest rate was fixed at 9.25% a year (LIBOR + 3.55%). The terms of placement were more comfortable for Russia, than it had been expected. As it mentioned in the previous report, the supposed cost of the borrowing was estimated 1.5 – 2.5 percentage points higher according to Standard & Poors Corp. rating (BB–).

Financial Markets.

The market for GKO-OFZ. In October – November 1996 the tendency of price growth has prevailed at the government securities market. The average-weighted GKO yield to maturity dropped from 80 – 90% a year in the beginning of October to 45 – 55% a year in the second half of the month. In November the reduce of political risks due to improving of B. Yeltsin’s health has led to the further growth of GKO-OFZ quotations.

The turnovers of secondary market remained stable at the level of 16 – 19 trillion rubles in October – November 1996 (see fig. 4). In November the expected turnover of secondary market amounts to 77 – 79 trillion rubles.

Figure 4.

In November the Ministry of Finance enlarged the monthly quota for non-residents from $1.5 to $2 milliard. The significant demand from the side of foreign investors contributed the further decline of GKO-OFZ yields to 40% annualized up to the last third of November. However, it is expected in December 1996 the yields can rise to 45 – 55% a year due to some intensification of inflationary processes.

Four GKO-OFZ primary auctions occurred in November 1996. There were placed four tranches of six-month GKO (issues 22057, 22058, 22059, 22060). Also two additional tranches of six-month GKO ( 22038, 22044) matured in January and March 1997 accordingly and two additional tranches of OFZ ( 24003 and 24007) were placed. The total volume of issued GKO-OFZ equalled to 30.2 trillion rubles with average yield to maturity 49.3% annualized. In November on the primary auctions the Russian Ministry of Finance got 27.6 trillion rubles. The initial demand exceeded 55.5 trillion rubles. That was more than the securities supply by 30.5%.

Stock market. In the second half of October – November 1996 the corporate securities market was very unstable (see fig. 5). The prevalence of speculative operations over the policy of portfolio management from the side of the largest participants led to the sharp fluctuations of the market index. Low correlation between the average dynamics of deals and the movements of the most liquid stocks’ quotations (see tab. 3, coefficients alpha and R-squared) testify to the unpredictability of this sector of Russian financial market. It is expected in December, on the eve of Holidays, there will be no reason to wait for large capital inflows. That is why high risks will remain.

Interbank credit market. The IBC market demonstrated the tendency of further declining of the interest rates with all kinds of loan terms in November 1996. The INSTAR on overnight and one-week loans dropped from 38 – 40% annualized in the very beginning of November to 29 – 30% a year up to the last decade of the month (see fig. 6). As factors influencing the level of interest rates on interbank loans one can stand out the increase of the one-day limit on report deals up to 650 billion rubles and the decrease of rates on these operations from 30% to 20% on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and from 40% to 25% on Thursday and Friday. The decline of reserve rates on the ruble liabilities of commercial banks contributed the further rise of loan supply and the increase of the total volume of interbank loans by 30% (see tab. 4).

Figure 5.

Table 3. Stock Market Characteristics for 1.10 22.11.96.

Liquidity (the ratio of number of days in which this stock were traded to the total number of days for the period). RAO UES Russia, RAO UES Russia (preferred), Gazprom, LUKoil, Lenenergo, Lenenergo (preferred), Mosenergo, Norilsk Nickel, Rostelecom, Surgutneftegas–1.

The most beneficial stocks*: Market index – 10.30%, Krasnoyarskenergo – 107.49%, Chernogorneft – 72.07%, RAO UES Russia (preferred) – 70.51%, Surgutneftegas (preferred) – 69.15%, Noyabrskneftegas (preferred) – 61.08%.

The most riskless stocks (coefficient beta)*: Market

risk – 129.18%, S.-Petersburg Telephone – -0.212 (0.868), Seversky Pipe Plant – -0.153 (0.368), Krasnoyarskenergo – -0.062 (0.368), Norilsk Nickel (preferred) – -0.055 (0.895), Tomskneft – -0.049 (0.658).

The most underevaluated stocks (coefficient alpha)*: S.-Petersburg Telephone – 0.0783 (0.5), GAZ – 0.0211 (0.368), KAMAZ – 0.0155 (0.711), Norilsk Nickel – 0.0148 (1.0), Rostelecom – 0.0142 (0.974).

The stocks with the highest unique risk (low R-square)*: Noyabrskneftegas (preferred) – 0.02% (0.605), Megionneftegas – 0.09% (0.842), GUM – 0.11% (0.500), Krasnoyarskenergo – 0.13% (0.368), S.-Petersburg Telephone – 0.16% (0.868).

The stocks with the lowest unique risk (high R-square)*: Lenenergo – 7.34% (0.974), Purneftegas – 7.44% (0.947), Mosenergo – 7.90% (1.0), Irkutskenergo – 8.06% (0.974), Moscow City Telephone Network – 26.25% (0.447).

Stocks accounted for the most share in the total turnover*: RAO UES Russia – 14.54% (1.0), Mosenergo – 12.57% (1.0), Surgutneftegas – 12.21% (1.0), LUKoil – 11.60% (1.0), Rostelecom – 8.79% (1.0).

* There are liquidity coefficients in parenthesis

In December 1996 – January 1997 it is expected the further growth of turnover and decline of interest rates at the interbank market due to the improvement of banking system liquidity. First of all, this resulted from the report deals enlargement, the start of refinancing mechanism by means of discount windows for the primary GKO-OFZ dealers.

Foreign exchange market. In October – November 1996 the rates of dollar exchange rate growth remained at the same level about 1% per month (see fig. 7). The official exchange rate increased from 5396 to 5455 rubles/$ (1.09% per month, or 13.9% annualized) in October. On MICEX the dollar exchange rate rase by 0.8% (from 5407 to 5451 rubles/$) and the interbank currency market exchange rate of dollar – by 0.91% (from 5408 to 5457 rubles/$). In November the official US dollar exchange rate will grow up by 0.97% to 5508 rubles/$, while the MICEX exchange rate of ruble will drop by 0.99% (to 5505 rubles/$) and the interbank exchange rate of ruble – by about 1.04% to 5513 rubles/$. In October the exchange rate of Deutsche Mark increased from 3538 to 3609 rubles per DM (by 2% per month, 26.9% per year). Up to the end of November the exchange rate of DM will amount to 3635 rubles/DM.

In October 1996 the gross turnover on MICEX was 820 billion rubles. In November the gross turnover do not change substantially (see tab. 4). The initial total demand for dollars amounted to about 140 million dollars and the supply – to 95 million dollars. The significant gap between the demand and supply of currency is caused by the current spread between the MICEX and the interbank market quotations to much extent.

Figure 6.

Figure 7.

Table 4. Indicators of Financial Markets.

month

August

September

October

November*

inflation rate (a month)

–0.2%

0.3%

1.2%

2 – 2.4%

annualized inflation rate by the month’s tendency

–2.4%

3.7%

15.4%

26.8 – 32.9%

the RCB refinancing rate

80%

80%

60%

60%

interest rate on deposits in Moscow Sberbank for one month (end of the month)

48%

48%

48%

30%

auction yield on three-month GKO (end of the month)

63.18%

69.58%

42.17%

42.17%

auction yield on six-month GKO (end of the month)

74.34%

94.00%

58.46%

38.1%

auction yield on OFZ (end of the month)

139.58%

91.07%

90.03%

38.03%

auction yield on OGSZ (end of the month)

156.17%

75.66%

77.88%

77.88%

annualized GKO yield to maturity:

less than 1 month

40.2%

41.3%

36.5%

30%

1-3 months

63.5%

51.9%

47.4%

40%

3-6 months

94.0%

68.1%

60.9%

50%

average yield on all issues

80.9%

60.9%

54.1%

47%

annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues

3 tranche

91.49%

78.47%

59.18%

53.0%

4 tranche

93.37%

79.86%

61.37%

53.6%

5 tranche

175.54%

525.09%

75.79%

38.0%

6 tranche

163.10%

221.01%

Pages:     | 1 | 2 || 4 | 5 |   ...   | 6 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .