The calculations done in the framework of thesecond stage as concerns cross-regional sample of municipalities were on thewhole based on the same approaches as those taken in the case of large cities.There were used the same coefficients of changes in revenues over 10 months of2002 (Table 6.6). Theconsequences of the reform of the corporate asset tax and abolishment of thesales tax were evaluated in the similar manner. The principle differences maybe reduced to the following:
In Krasnoyarsk krai and Leningrad oblast revenues generated bylocal taxes decreased twofold, since approximately such dynamics might beexpected after the imposition of the sales tax and respective reduction of thelist of local taxes;
There were used more complex methods of prognostication of growthin revenues due to higher rates of the personal asset tax.
It is very difficult to forecast the dynamicsof revenues generated by the personal asset tax, since municipal policies inthis regard depend on a large number of different factors, which are muchharder to detect and prognosticate as concerns small municipalities. In thiscase it was attempted to take into account two parameters significant formunicipal entities –levels of household incomes and quality of housing. Since evaluation wasiterative, it allowed to somewhat objectivize the appliedhypotheses.
At the first stage, as in the case of largecities, the existing personal asset tax was increased 20 times for eachmunicipal entity, and the resulting value was increased by 20 per cent in orderto take into account the growth in rent (a 30 per cent increase for the sampleof large cities).
At the second stage, for each region therewas determined the distribution of municipalities by the levels of householdincomes. As in the case of large cities, the sum of contingents of income taxand the tax on aggregate personal incomes was used as the indicator of thelevel of income. Depending on the degree of differentiation of this indicatorand taking into account the urban or rural nature of municipalities, in eachregion the municipal entities were >
At the third stage, there were analyzed twogroups of municipal entities – those where per capita HUS expenditures exceeded regional averagesand those where respective expenditures were below the averages. According tothe aforesaid hypothesis, this differentiation primarily depends on the degreeof urbanization of respective municipal entities and is therefore indirectlyrelated to the quality of real estate. It was assumed that the coefficientdetermined at the preceding stage can not exceed 0.5 per cent for municipalentities where the share of per capita HUS expenditures is below the average.
At the fourth stage, the obtained evaluationof the revenue generating capacity of the personal asset tax was compared withthe actually collected amount of the tax increased 20 times. In the case theobtained evaluations significantly exceeded this value for a significant partof municipal entities or demonstrated a significant deviation from the formedtrend, the coefficients determined at the second stage were adjusted. For tworegions - Kabardian-Balkarian Republic and Rostov oblast – this iteration demonstrated thenecessity to reject changes made in the framework of the third stage.
Table 7.8 reflectsthe results of evaluation of factors affecting the changes in budgetaryrevenues of municipal entities and demonstrates the potential of growth inthese revenues.
Calculations: the thirdstage
At the third stage of calculations there wascarried out the scenario based evaluation of changes in expenditures of localbudgets depending on the distribution of powers between the regional andmunicipal levels. In this respect, the cross regional analysis of municipalentities also somewhat differed from the case of large cities. Due tounavailability of exhaustive information and heterogeneity of municipalentities in the region, the modeling of the evolutionary scenario was somewhatsimplified. The calculations were done in the following way:
expenditures of municipal entities were increased by 10 percent;
expenditures for remuneration of labor with payroll tax inaccordance with the item “State administration and local government” wereincreased 1.2 times, expenditures for remuneration of labor with payroll tax inaccordance with other items were increased 1.4 times;
90 per cent of the funds relating to the item “conditionalsubsidies” of the subsection “Housing” and to the items “subsidies for servicesrendered to population by energy and heat supply organizations” and the item“subsidies for services rendered to population by water supply and sewerageorganizations” of the subsection “Public utilities” were excluded from theexpenditures relating to the HUS item;
expenditures of municipal entities, where per capita HUSexpenditures in 2001 were above the average (Table7.3) were increased by 7 per cent for payment ofhousing allowances;
expenditures of municipal entities were decreased by 3 per cent forfinancing of federal mandates and 2 per cent as the reserve of short timeretrenchment.
Therefore, the aggregate expenditures of amunicipality will make, according to the evolutionary scenario ():
1) - are adaptedexpenditures of municipal budgets in 2001;
2)- are expendituresfor repayment of accounts payable and servicing of the municipal debtdetermined as
where are actualexpenditures of local budgets in 2001;
3) is the growth inremuneration of labor with payroll tax of public officials and employees in thebudgetary sphere in comparison with the figures registered in 2001 calculatedas:
where are expendituresfor remuneration of labor with payroll tax of public sector employees; are expenditures of local budgets forremuneration of labor with payroll tax of public officials;
4) HUS subsidies;
5) expenditures forhousing allowances:
where per capita HUSexpenditures in the i-thmunicipality of the j–th region in 2001; n is the number of municipalities in theregion j;
6) is theretrenchment of municipal budgets determined as
where is the potentialof current retrenchment; are expenditures for financing offederal mandates at the expense of funds of municipal budgets.
The changes in expenditures in the frameworkof the evolutionary scenario in comparison with the actual expenditures borneby municipal entities in 2001 are presented in Table7.9.
The calculations done in the framework ofother scenarios do not differ from the algorithm applied in the case of largecities. The results of scenario based estimates of expenditures are presentedin Table 7.10.
Calculations: the fourthstage
At the fourth stage of calculations therewere reviewed the outcomes of the variants of assignment of revenue sourcesselected in the course of analysis of different expenditure scenarios for thesample of large cities as applied for municipal entities across regions.
First, there was determined if additionalrevenues obtained in the framework of the second stage of calculations weresufficient to defray expenditures borne in accordance with the evolutionaryscenario, i.e. in the case the current distribution of powers (and thereforefinancial resources) between the regional and municipal levels was retained.For the results of comparison of additional revenues and expenditures seeTable 7.11. Apparently, thesituation is ambiguous. In the case the sales tax is retained as a municipaltax, additional expenditures may be covered in 7 regions out of 12. In the casethe sales tax is abolished, additional expenditures can be covered at theexpense of additional revenues only in 5 regions.
Yet another potential financial source is thefull assignment of the revenues previously shared not only between regions andmunicipalities, but also by the federal budget. These means make about 1 percent of the revenues of the federal budget and do not significantly affect itsstanding. As the data in Table 7.12 demonstrate, in this case (proceeding from the assumption thatthese revenues will be rather evenly distributed among municipalities) revenuesof municipal entities may increase by about 2 per cent. This development willsignificantly improve the situation in 3 other RF subjects, both if the salestax is abolished and retained. Therefore, in the case the sales tax isretained, only the most deficit regions belonging to the first cluster willencounter the problem of sources for defrayal of additional expenditures. Inthe case the tax is abolished, this problem will arise in 2 other regions, butwill it become acute only in the Chuvash Republic.
Therefore, the analysis reveals thatpossible increase in expenditure needs of municipal entities in the frameworkof the evolutionary scenario will not result in a global financial imbalanceand in the majority of cases may be compensated at the expense of increases inexisting revenue sources and attraction of new ones. This allows proceeding tocalculations concerning other expenditure scenarios similar to those for thesample of large cities. The results of calculations in accordance with eachvariant of each of the four scenarios are presented in Annex 7.1.
The overall result of these calculation isthe extremely low level of the overall surplus and, accordingly, small numberof cities where revenues exceed expenditures. In all variants of assignment ofrevenue sources, the total number of such municipalities in all analyzedregions was at or below 11 (2.75 per cent of the sample of municipal entitiesin selected regions), while the number of municipalities with surplusesexceeding 10 per cent was at or below 5 (1.2 per cent of the sample of theanalyzed municipal entities). This result is radically better than thatobtained at the first stage of calculations (financing of expenditures formedin 2001 at the expense of revenue sources available in 2001), where inaccordance with two best variants the number of municipal entities with surplusmade 25 and 28 or, respectively, 6.2 per cent and 7 per cent of the analyzedsample.
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