Legislative conditions (this set of criteria was analyzedseparately only at the beginning and later was included in “investmentrisks”.
Investment capacity – a set of available production and business fields. Includes thefollowing integrated subtypes:
Resources potential, calculated on the basis of an average weighted availability ofthe most important natural resources. It is calculated on the basis of a numberof indicators, in particular:
Non-ferrous metals deposits;
Ferrous metals deposits;
Iron ore deposits;
Resources for chemical industry;
Industrial capacity, is a cumulativeoutput of economic activity of the population in he region. The followingindices are used for its calculation:
Gross regional product;
Number of employed in the economy;
Number of enterprises and organizations.
Consumer potential, purchasing capacityof the population characterized by:
A ratio between population’s income and subsistenceminimum;
Total deposits of the population in the Savings bank.
Infrastructure potential, its analysisis based on the economic and geographical location and infrastructure networkin the region, characterized by:
Number of urban household telephones;
Density of highways.
Innovative potential evaluatesscientific and technical activity in the region. It is calculated on the basisof the following indices:
Number of new machine models;
Number of researchers;
Number of organizations engaged in research process;
Number of industrial enterprises dealing with innovatingactivity;
Current expenditure on research projects;
Investment in science.
Labor potential as an aggregatecriterion of the following indices:
Number of able-bodied people;
Share of people higher and secondary vocationaleducation;
Number of people with higher and secondary vocational education inthe number of employed in the economy.
Institutional potential represents alevel of development of main institutions of market economy in the region. Thefollowing indices were used in its calculation:
Number commercial bans and their branches;
Number of small businesses;
Number of enterprises with foreign participation;
Number of insurance companies.
Financial potential, expressed in theoverall sum of fiscal and other monetary revenues in the budgetary systemproceeded from the territory of the given region.
Investment risk – qualitative feature, itestimates probability of loosing investments and profit. The following riskswere identified:
Political risk depends on stability ofregional government and political polarization of the population.
Economic risk is linked with regionaleconomic development.
Social risk is characterized by thelevel of social tension.
Criminal risk is determined by the crimerate taking into account crime weight.
Ecological risk calculated as anintegral level of environmental pollution.
Financial risk reflects problems of theregional budget and aggregate financial results regionalenterprises.
Legislative risk characterizes a set oflegal norms regulating economic relations on the territory: local taxes,privileges, limits, etc.
A method was developed for the assessmentof the investment attractiveness of the regions. The method is based on acombination of statistical and expert approaches. At the first stage, out ofthe statistical data referring to this or that type of investment risk andpotential the most indicative indices have been determined with the help of thecorrelation analysis. Next with the help of the factor analysis input of eachindicative index in the overall value of a corresponding potential or risk wasdetermined. At the last stage, with the help of the cluster analysis regionsranked by the potential and risk were divided into types by the character ofinvestment climate.
The integral rating for each region byinvestment potential was calculated as an average weighted value of the region’s role in Russia by indices,which refer to all enumerated above potential types. In cases when the realvalue of statistical data for several regions were equal, the whole group wasgiven an average group rating. Integral rating of each region by the level ofthe investment risk was calculated on the basis of the average weighted difference of chosenrisk indices from the average Russian ones. In cases, when the real value ofstatistical data for several regions was the same, the whole group was given anaverage group rating.
Final regional typology by the investmentattractiveness has the following form (as an example, let us take 1998research):
Type 1А.Мaximum potential – minimum risk. Moscow, St. Petersburg.
Type 2А.Average potential – minimum risk. Belgorod region, The TatarRepublic.
Type 2В.Average potential – moderate risk.. Nizhniy Novgorod, Volgograd, Samara,Saratov, Rostov, Orenburg, Perm, Cheliabinsk, Kemerovo, Novosibirsk, Irkutskregions, Krasnodar, Altai and the Primorsk Territory.
Type 3В1.Reduced potential – moderate risk. Komi Republic, Archangelsk, Vologda, Murmansk, Leningrad,Vladimir, Kaluga, Orel, Ryazan, Smolensk, Tver and Yaroslavl regions, theChuvash Republic, Kirov, Voronezh, Rursk, Lipetsk, Penza and Ulianovsk regions,the Stavropol Territory, Omsk, Tomsk, Amur and Kaliningrad regions.
Type 3В2.Low potential – moderate risk. The Republic of Karelia, the NenetzAutonomous Region, Novgorod, Pskov, Ivanovo and Kostroma regions, the Republicsof Mariy El, Mordovia, Tambov and Astrakhan regions, the Republic of Adygeya,the Kabardino-Balkar Autonomous Region, the Komi-Permyak Autonomous Region, theRepublic of Buriatia, the Taimyr Autonomous Region, the Jewish AutonomousRegion.
Type 1С. Highpotential – highrisk. KrasnodarTerritory.
Type 2С.Average potential – high risk. Yamalo-Nenetz Autonomous Region, SakhaRepublic (Yakutiya).
Type 3С1.Reduced potential – high risk. Briank region, Udmurt Republic, Tumen,Chita regions, Khabarov Territory.
Type 3С2.Low potential – high risk. Kalmyk Republic, Karachaevo-Cherkes, Northern Osetiya-Alania,Kurgan regions, Republic of Altai, Tyva, Khakassiya, Evenk, Ust-Ordynsk Buryat,Aginsk Buryat, Chukotka Autonomous Regions, Kamchatka region, Koryak AutonomousRegion, Magadan and Sakhalin regions..
Type 3D.Low potential – extreme risk. Republic of Dagestan, Chechen Republic.
17. Typology of the regional investmentclimate*
Regional typology by the investmentclimate was done by ranking data, such as:
Industrial production dynamics (real and forecast for the nextyear);
Retail turnover dynamics (real and forecast for the nextyear);
Inflation rate (real and forecast for the next year);
Geographical location in relation to migration;
Geographical location in relation to Russian sea ports and accessto foreign markets;
Attitude of local administration to market orientedreforms;
Level of social stability;
Level of political stability, etc.
Evaluation of factors, which determineinvestment attractiveness of regions, permitted to divide Russia’s regions by the state of theinvestment climate into the following types:
Regions with maximum business activity, high speed of constructionof new economic institutions and relatively favorable investment climate. Thistype comprises 11 regions: Kaluga, Moscow, Tula, Yaroslavl, Nizhniy Novgorod,Volgograd, Samara, Cheliabinsk, Tumen, cities of Moscow and St.Petersburg.
Regions with minimum business activity, slow speed of constructionof new economic institutions and unfavorable investment climate. This typecomprises 25 regions. Among them there are eight regions with a higher incomparison with average Russian share of agro-industrial complex in regionaleconomy (in particular, a number of regions of ), fourregions have a higher share of enterprises subject to conversion and all sevenrepublics of North Caucasus.
Regions which belong to the interim type.Thirty-nine regions belong to this type. Forty eight per cent of the populationinhabits these regions. Such high share corresponds to the transitionalcharacter of the Russian economy.
18. Business climate inRussia’sregions
Business climate in Russia’s regions was presented in thetypology. In order to accomplish this all indicators were divided into threecomponents:
Regional factorsinclude economic and geographical location, natural conditions and resources,population and economy. Economic and geographical location determines featuresand qualities of territorial entities (cities, districts, enterprises or thewhole) regarding their relations with other social and economic entities, whicheither stimulate or hamper their development. Natural conditions represent oneof main factors, which facilitates or hampers colonization and development ofthe territory. Resource capacity also exerts influence on business climate notonly directly (the higher and more diverse it is the better) but indirectly aswell (via economic structure, economic activity, investment flow, etc.). Thefollowing structure was selected for the analysis of the “population” factor:settling, demographic (gender and age, household), ethnic (national), social,educational. Regional economy can be divided into very different structuralparts. In the simplest version usually identify industry, agriculture,investment (construction) complex, transportation, infrastructure.
Regional policy.Under this term the authors understand “a system of measures aimed atregulating regional development” and single out such structural elements, as:а) subjects; б) directions; в) types. Subjects of the regional policy areorganizational structures which are authorized and strive to carry out economicpolicy with respect to regions. Main aspects are: fiscal policy, investmentpolicy, budget policy, price (tariff) policy, structural policy, institutionalpolicy and social policy. The type of the regional policy is determined by themost common approaches and mechanisms of its realization. At the federal leveltwo type of regional policy are identified: “liberal” and “conservativemodels.
Regional situation results from a combination of economic and geographical factorsand conditions, on the one hand, and regional social and economic policy, onthe other. Main components of the regional situation are: economic situation,social situation, financial situation, political situation, and ecologicalsituation.
Final ranking of the subjects of theRussian Federation by business climate was based on ten factors.
Climate and resource capacity.
Demographic situation. On the basis of the coefficient of changesin regional population in 1990-1996 correlated with average Russiandata.
Economic capacity. Simple average of the share of the region inAll-Russia production of industrial goods, agricultural products, investment,retail turnover, divided by the share of an “average” subject of the RussianFederation (1,1% = 100/89).
The level of economic development. Simple average of the fourcoefficients which characterize the volume of production of industrial andagricultural goods, capital investment, per capita retail turnover in relationto All-Russia indices (in contrast to the previous index, this parameter doesnot characterize absolute but relative “size” of a region).
Economic activity. At the beginning “simple average” slump inindustrial and agricultural production as well as in construction iscalculated. Then it is multiplied on the ratio of the average unemploymentlevel to the regional one. At the end the obtained indicator divide on itsaverage value.
The living standard of the population. Simple average differencebetween infant mortality, income purchasing power, share of poor people, numberof private cars and corresponding average All-Russia indices.
The state of regional finances. Simple average difference betweenfiscal capacity, share of federal budget receipts, share of loss-makingenterprises, per capita income and corresponding average all-Russiaindices.
The state of economic reforms. Share of subsidies for industry inthe overall volume of regional budget expenditure, subsidy level of agriculture(the volume of budget subsidies per 100 Rubles of agricultural produce), thelevel of “small” privatization (share of privatized enterprises in commerce,catering and consumer services), share of goods and services with regulatedprices (by local authorities), price regulation on food stuffs. Due to the factthat indices are rather different, they were compared with average all-Russiaindices and the difference coefficient from the average number wascalculated.
Political preferences of the electorate. Expert estimates ofregional type were transferred (reformative – 4, relatively reformative 3,relatively conservative – 2, conservative – 1) in numbers. Then simple average of these numbers wascalculated together with an estimation of stability of political preferences (1– minimum, 5– maximum). Thenthese numbers were divided on the average for the subjects of the RussianFederation.
Stability and influence of regional authorities. It is themost subjective of all factors. At first, stability and influence of regionalelite on the whole was estimated. Average number of corresponding expertestimates was determined and divided on the average all-Russia index. Then theexecutive power was estimated.
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