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2,2%

1,9%

2,8%

1,2%

1,5%

annualised inflation rate by the month’s tendency

29,8%

25,3%

39,3%

15,4%

19,6%

the RCB refinancing rate

60%

55%

55%

55%

55%

annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues

75,90%

30,06%

65,79%

75%%

volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)

4,28

15,49

9,22

15

yield to maturity on Vneshbonds issues by the end of the month (% a year):

4th tranche

80,3%

54,2%

58,7%

62,8%

59%

5th tranche

40,1%

28,7%

29,6%

31,4%

34%

6th tranche

42,0%

29,7%

30,6%

32,8%

35%

7th tranche

33,1%

22,4%

22,4%

22,8%

24%

INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:

overnight

5,8%

14,0%

16,3%

29,3%

25%

1 week

11%

20%

10%

14%

28%

official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month

24,44

24,22

24,19

24,75

25,05

official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by the end of the month

25,52

25,07

25,94

25,92

26,46

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth

0,87%

-0,90%

-0,12%

1,21%

2,32%

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per DM growth

-0,82%

-1,76%

3,47%

-0,01%

2,08%

volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD)

197,3

272,1

330,2

184,6

120

the value of the RTS-1 Index by the end of the month

97,64

125,65

116,49

102,19

82

growth in the RTS-1 Index (% a month)

6,33%

28,68%

-7,29%

-12,28%

-19,75%

*/ estimated

S. Arkhipov, S. Drobyshevsky

Investment in the real sector

From January through August 1999, the volume of investment in capital assets from all the sources of financing made up Rb. 294.1bln., or 99.3% to the respective period of the prior year. Since the IInd quarter 1999, the decline rate of investment in the real sector experienced some slowdown, which is determined by the growing level of business activity in the real sector.

It is enterprises’ and organizations’ own capital which became the main source for financing investment in capital assets. During the Ist half 1999, the share of enterprises’ and organizations’ own capital in investment made up 56.1%. With the financial indicators improving, the share of profit in the sources of financing grew by 2.5per cent points compared with the respective period of the prior year. Given that during the period between 1997- Ist half 1998the banking structures’ interest in the real sector was slightly growing, after the August 1998crisis the financial and credit market has been in the state of collapse.

His year, the trend have strengthened to the contraction in the share of budgetary funds in the structure of the sources of financing investment in capital assets. At the same time the fall in the share of budgetary funds in investment was taking place on the background of the redistribution of the shares between the federal budget and the budgets of the Federation’s Subjects, in favor of the latter. According to results of the Ist half 1999, the share of budgetary funds in investment in capital assets fell to 1.47% of GDP

In the structure of investment in capital assets by forms of ownership, one may note the contraction of the share of private investment from 27.4% against 29.4% reported in the Ist half 1998. Since the main share of private investment is formed at the expense of private developers’ funds, with the change in the income level and amount of savings, the population’s investment possibilities and the potential circle of investors have narrowed.

With the change of the state of affairs in the domestic market resulting from the Rb. depreciation, the foreign capital has began to operate more vigorously in the country. Compared with the Ist half 1998, FDI grew 1.6 times, and over 70% of FDI were invested in the industrial sector. Contrast to 19998, the share of investments made by enterprises with the foreign capital’s participation and those with 100% foreign capital grew by 1.8 per cent points and made up 10.2% in the overall volume of investment in capital assets reported in the Ist half 1999 versus 8.4% registered during the respective period of 1998. The growth in the investment activity of enterprises with the foreign capital’s participation was determined by both the growing orientation to the output of import- substituting goods and by strategic interests in keeping the potential market.

Table 1

Investment in capital assets by sources of financing, in the prices of the respective years

Ist half year

1998

1999

Investment in capital assets

100,0

100,0

Including:

1. Own and attracted capital

80,2

83,3

Of which:

- enterprises own capital

55,6

56,1

Of which: accumulation fund

11,5

13,1

- attracted capital

24,6

27,2

including:

Credits of commercial banks

5,1

5,1

2.Funds from consolidate budget

19,8

16,7

Of which funds from the federal budget

6,0

4,8

Source: Roststatagentstvo

The changes in the branch structure of investment were caused by the revitalization of economic activity in the industrial sector. Compared with the Ist half 1999, the share of industry in the total volume of investment grew by 2.9 per cent points.

The fall in the share of investment by the fuel and energy sector and metallurgical sector in the structure of investment in capital assets was influenced by the redistribution of investment flows in favor of the industry branches of the chemical, forestry, investment, and consumer sector. In the Ist half 1999, the volume of investment in machine- building sector grew by 28.5% relative to the respective period of 1998, including the volume of investment in such sub- sectors as the car manufacturing- by 2.6%, instrument making- by 50%, construction and highway machine building- 2.4 times. The volume of investment in chemicals grew by 9.6%, including those in the chemical industry- by 4.6%. Another phenomenon which is characteristic of this year is the growth in the share of investment in the consumer sector. Thus, during the Ist half 1999 the share of investment in the production of consumer goods in the total volume of investment grew up to 7.31% versus 3.73% reported for the respective period of the prior year.

Chart 1

Source: Rosstatagentstvo, RF Ministry of Economy

Since the investment resources are limited, the enterprises focus their activity mostly on a vigorous introduction of competitive reserve capacities to production and production modernization at the expense of purchases of new technological lines. Accordingly, the proportional weight of investment in machinery and equipment in the overall volume of investment in capital assets grew by 8.5 points compared with the Ist half 1998 and reached 35.1%. That testifies to the relatively flexible and prompt reaction of the producers to the changes in the domestic state of affairs.

O. Izryadnova

Foreign investment in the Russian economy

In 1999, the trends to the fall in the volume of attracted foreign capital in the Russian economy, which emerged by late 1998, are still in place. For the first half 1999, the foreign investment in the Russian economy made up a. USD 4.3bln., or at 44.5% down compared with the respective period of the prior year. The positive factor in the sphere of attraction of foreign investment became the growing share of FDI (56.9% for the Ist half 1999versus 19.6% for the first half 1998.

During the IInd quarter 1999against the Ist quarter, significant changes took place in the structure of the attracted capital by its major components. That is related to the fact that the amount of FDI grew over three times.

The structure of foreign investment in the Ist and IInd quarters 1999 ( the data on the respective period of 1998 is given in brackets)

The volume of foreign investment received in the IInd quarter 1999as a whole made up USD 2,715. That is at 74.5% higher than the level of the prior quarter and at 27.15% down when compared with the respective index 1998.

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