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Total financing, of which

5061

-175

3280

6258

3289

161

-4761

-721

domestic

1765

-7249

1252

1347

-336

6052

7355

1284

external

3296

7074

2028

4911

3625

6214

4761

563

The deflation of indices was done using CPI. As it it seen from the Table, in July 1999 the level of tax revenues and the overall level of revenues in real terms were grew, and to a greater extent that became possible at the expense of the corporate profit tax and indirect taxes (VAT and excises).

For the seven months of 1999, the level of revenues made up 12.8% of GDP ( 10.7% of GDP for the respective period of 1998, and 11.3% of GDP for 1998 as a whole), including 11% of GDP at the expense of tax revenues (8.8% of GDP and 8.8% of GDP, respectively) and expenditures-15.0% of GDP ( 14.7% during the period of January-July 1998 and 14.5% of GDP for the whole 1998).

As of August 1, the level of budgetary deficit was 2.1% of GDP ( 3.9% of GDP for the respective period of 1998, and 5.4% of GDP for the whole 1998).

The dynamics of real indebtedness to the federal budget by taxes are represented on Fig.1. As of September 1, 1999, the total amount of indebtedness to the federal budget made up Rb. 237 bln.

1998

1999

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

25186

10804

12460

12711

10222

11131

12166

10606

6409

9090

11226

21979

10262

11811

12519

12525

10728

11590

13036

13135

As of September 1, according to the Ministry of Taxes and Charges, tax revenues to the federal budget made up a. Rb. 30 bln. Compared with the respective period of the prior year, the tax revenues ( in prices of January 1998) fell.

S. Batkibekov

Monetary Policy

In August 1999 the consumer prices grew by 1.2%. In particular in August the growth in prices for food stuffs was 0.5%. However, disregarding the price rise for vegetables, the growth in prices for food stuffs made up 3.3%. The price rise for non-food products made up 2.4%, for services – 1.9%. In August prices for petrol grew by 20.2%. Hence, the main reason for a slowing of inflation in August was the seasonal factor.

In September an influence of the seasonal factor has kept. During the first three weeks of September, the inflation rate did not exceed 1.0%. (see fig.1). According to the preliminary estimations, should that tendency sustain in September, the growth rate in consumer prices will not exceed 1.5%. Nevertheless, in October – November 1999 the monthly inflation rate may reach the level of 2 – 3%. In this case, the growth in consumer prices in 1999 would make up 40 – 50%. That inflation rate is less compared to the respective index registered in 1998 (84.2%), however, that is higher than the inflation rate fixed in the 1999 Federal Budget Law (30%).

A percistance of inflation processes in the Russian economy imposes certain limitations on estimations of the CPI rate in 2000. The draft 2000 Federal Budget Law, which has submitted to the State Duma by the Russian Government is based on the assumption that the inflation rate in 2000 will drop to 18% annualized. That implies that the average monthly CPI rate ranging between 1.2% to 1.4%.

Taking into account the fact that consumer price growth in winter 1999 – 2000 would be about 3 – 4% a month, the inflation rate set by the draft 2000 Federal Budget Law may be reached only under conditions of appreciable slowdown of the CPI growth rate during the second half 2000. In this case, in the second half 2000 the average inflation rate should not exceed 1% a month. However such a scenario is rather unlikely in the light of the forthcoming President election in 2000.

Figure 1.

A percistance of inflation processes in the Russian economy imposes certain limitations on estimations of the CPI rate in 2000. The draft 2000 Federal Budget Law, which has submitted to the State Duma by the Russian Government is based on the assumption that the inflation rate in 2000 will drop to 18% annualized. That implies that the average monthly CPI rate ranging between 1.2% to 1.4%.

Figure 2.

Taking into account the fact that consumer price growth in winter 1999 – 2000 would be about 3 – 4% a month, the inflation rate set by the draft 2000 Federal Budget Law may be reached only under conditions of appreciable slowdown of the CPI growth rate during the second half 2000. In this case, in the second half 2000 the average inflation rate should not exceed 1% a month. However such a scenario is rather unlikely in the light of the forthcoming President election in 2000.

Compared to the period between March to June 1999, the monetary policy of the Russian Central Bank between July to September 1999 was tougher (see fig.2 and tab.1). During the second half 1999 the growth rate of the monetary base has not exceeded 1% a month. At the same time, between mid-August to late September the RCB’s foreign reserves fell by about $1 bln. Hence the foreign reserves reached the minimal value over the last five months. As mentioned before, the RCB’s reserves dropped because of massive interventions in foreign exchange market.

Table 1.

Weekly dynamics of the monetary base and foreign reserves of the RCB between June to August 1999.

Monetary Base

(bln. rubles)

Growth in Monetary Base (%)

Foreign Reserves

(bln. dollars)

Growth in Foreign Reserves (%)

31.5-6.6.99

245,6

2,04%

12,0

0,00%

7-13.6.99

254,1

3,46%

12,1

0,83%

14-20.6.99

257,4

1,30%

12,1

0,00%

21-27.6.99

257,3

-0,04%

12,2

0,83%

28.6-4.7.99

259,5

0,86%

12,1

-0,82%

5-11.7.99

264,4

1,89%

11,8

-2,48%

12-18.7.99

265,1

0,26%

11,5

-2,54%

19-25.7.99

263,3

-0,68%

11,0

-4,35%

26.7-1.8.99

260,3

-1,14%

11,9

8,18%

2-8.8.99

263,7

1,31%

11,7

-1,68%

9-15.8.99

267,5

1,44%

11,4

-2,56%

16-22.8.99

266,4

-0,41%

11,5

0,88%

23-29.8.99

264,1

-0,86%

11,1

-3,48%

30.8-5.9.99

262,3

-0,68%

11,1

0,00%

6-12.9.99

266,1

1,45%

10,9

-1,80%

13-19.9.99

264,6

-0,56%

10,9

0,00%

S. Arkhipov, S. Drobyshevsky

Financial Markets

The government securities market. In September 1999 the quotations of Vneshbonds dropped smoothly (see fig.1). Except price dynamics of the fourth tranche of OVVZ to be redeemed 2003. At the same time quotations of the fifth tranche of Vneshbonds, which as well concerns with the Soviet debts, dropped sharply. These price fluctuations were caused, primarily, by the technical correction after the price growth which took a place in summer 1999. By late September 1999, the yields by all Vneshbonds reached the level of mid-June 1999.

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