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INSTITUTE FOR THE ECONOMY IN TRANSITION

RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES

September 1997

MONTHLY BULLETIN

Moscow

1997

© Institute for the Economy in Transition, 1996. Licence, 021018 of 09.11.95

5 Gazetny pereulok, Moscow 103918, Russian Federation

Phone: (095) 203-88-16 Fax: (095) 202-42-24 E- Mail: iet@online.ru

The State of the Budget 3

Monetary Policy 4

Financial Markets. 6

Political and economic situation between August- September 1997 10

Investment 12

Foreign trade 13

Situation in agroindustrial complex 14

Situation in industry 17

Individual business: some aspects of development 19

The State of the Budget

Table 1. Execution of Russia's budget ( % to GDP)

1995

1996

1.02.97

1.03.97

1.04.97

1.05.97

1.06.97

1.07.97

1.08.97

Revenue

Profit tax

2,47

1,44

0,59

0,67

0,88

1,13

1,30

1,29

1,16

Personal income tax

0,2

0,23

0,20

0,20

0,17

0,12

0,12

0,10

0,10

VAT, special tax and excises

5,81

6,74

4,21

4,57

5,44

6,30

6,64

6,28

6,19

Taxes on foreign trade and foreign economic activities

1,46

1,01

0,55

0,71

0,83

0,86

0,88

0,93

0,94

Other taxes, levies and payments

0,34

0,28

0,15

0,37

0,22

0,23

0,25

0,14

0,24

Overall taxes and payments

10,28

9,70

5,70

6,52

7,54

8,64

9,19

8,74

8,63

Non-tax revenues

3,4

2,80

1,59

1,91

1,35

1,57

1,54

1,55

1,71

Total revenues

13,68

12,50

7,29

8,43

9,22

10,20

10,73

10,29

10,34

Expenditure

State administration

0,27

0,24

0,17

0,18

0,21

0,21

0,24

0,24

0,29

International activity

1,3

1,18

0,36

0,34

0,60

0,69

0,69

0,73

0,71

National defence and law enforcement activity

4,03

4,10

2,92

3,37

4,46

4,69

4,91

4,28

4,31

Fundamental research

0,29

0,29

0,05

0,11

0,23

0,28

0,31

0,31

0,36

Services to national economy

2,18

1,84

0,86

0,89

1,43

1,53

1,62

1,47

1,63

Social services

1,12

1,22

0,52

1,70

2,19

2,28

2,36

2,38

2,30

Servicing state debt

1,5

1,51

1,24

1,32

1,94

1,85

1,91

1,74

1,69

Other expenditure

2,79

1,94

2,88

1,19

1,66

1,55

2,04

2,21

2,32

Overall expenditure

15,24

14,37

8,42

9,10

12,72

13,09

14,08

13,36

13,61

Loans less repayments

1,37

1,04

0,60

0,94

0,35

0,80

0,19

1,03

0,89

Expenditure and loans minus repayments

16,61

15,33

9,02

10,04

13,07

13,89

14,28

14,39

14,51

Budget deficit

2,94

2,83

1,73

1,61

3,84

3,69

3,55

4,10

4,17

Total financing, of which

2,94

2,83

1,73

1,61

3,84

3,69

3,55

4,10

4,17

domestic

1,41

1,36

1,20

0,38

1,95

1,84

1,66

1,48

1,92

foreign

1,53

1,47

0,52

1,23

1,89

1,85

1,89

2,62

2,26

GDP (trln rubles)

1659

2256

201

401

605

812

1019

1226

1454

*Preliminary data

The outcome of the federal budget execution can be seen in Table 1

According to the latest data, by August 1 the reduction of tax revenues was minimal for the last three months. At the same time by way of increasing the non-tax revenues the overall sum of revenues remained the same.

Execution of the federal budget expenditure has not undergone any major changes. Thanks to that fact the budget deficit grew insignificantly.

Execution of the consolidated budget is represented in Table 2.

Table 2. Execution of Russias consolidated budget (% of GDP)

1996

I

II

III

IV

V

VII

VIII

Taxes and payments

20,97

12,99

14,15

16,07

18,39

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