Principal differences are caused by externaldevelopment conditions. The deciding factor was the level and dynamics of worldoil prices: the average contract price in the first variant equals to 18.5dollars per barrel, in the second variant 23.5 dollars. Bothvariants’ calculationswere based upon equal suppositions about energy resources (oil and gas) exportdynamics and performance of obligations to repay and service foreign debts. Inconnection with changes in external economic situation in the adjusted forecastwithin borders of the conservative variant there are studied consequences of adrop of the world oil prices to the level of 16.5 – 14.5 dollar per barrel (Variants Aand B). Internal development conditions are determined by a growth ofinvestments and consumer demands.
The GDP growth rate considering the factorsand conditions of economic development are defined within the limits of 3.5– 4.3% by variants. TheGDP production pattern is determined on the background of accelerated growthrates in civil construction and services in trade. Industrial output growth ispredicted at the level of 3 – 4%. The predominant trend in changes in the pattern of the GDP inuse remains the situation when the final domestic demand outruns the externaldemand in its growth rate.
The domestic demand pattern will bedefined by the fact that the investment demand growth rate will outrun that ofthe final public consumption. In connection with growing expenses to settle foreign debts of the statethe domestic gross accumulated resources will slightly diminish, which will tell uponthe investment expenditure rate. Fixed capital investment increment in 2002 ispredicted at a level of 6.0 - 8.0%, their share in the GDP will equal 18.1%against 17.7% in 2001.
According to the forecast real money incomegrowth in 2002 will be 5 – 6%. Real income of the population, though, will not reach higherthan 84.4% of year 1997 (before the crisis).
If one uses figure dynamics for real incomeprovided in the forecast, the growth rate of the final consumption by thepopulation in the GDP will be equal to 103.8 – 104.6% against 107.4% in 2001. Thepresent level of income and spendings of the population and consumer pricesgrowth gives grounds to predict a slower savings growth rate in the privatehomes sector.
GDP In-Use Elements Dynamics, in % to thePrevious Year
Final consumption of goods andservices, total expenses
Gross savings, total
Net exports of goods, commodities and services
Consequently, the factor that limitsgrowth of final demand is a lower share of gross savings in the GDP on the onehand, and changes in their use on the other. The share of gross savings in theeconomy in the GDP will remain according to different variants within the limits of 30.9 – 32.4% compared to 34.8% in2001. Due to the fact that extra revenues will be used with fiscal aims toincrease budget surplus and expenses to repay the state debt, the gross domestic savings growthrate will fall from 17.0% in 2001 to 6.7 – 7.4% in 2002.
In spite of the fact that the positivedynamics of investment growth will remain, due to the present technological, reproduction and agepattern of fixed capital, investments given in the forecast will be inadequate to promote activeindustrial policies.
A slower industrial growth rate isaccompanied by a relative fall in the share of investments to development ofthis sector of the national economy. Most exposed are the branches that havecapacity shortages: oil-refining and chemical industry, ferrous and non-ferrousmetallurgy, machine-building, food industry.
Situation in the investments sphere isaggravated by the fact that the economy needs investments on a higher scale; moreover it is also inneed of a determined strategy to attract investments to branches that want competitivecapacities. If one takesinto account a high concentration of revenues within export-oriented branchesof the raw material sector and lack of mechanisms of inter-industry capitaltransfer, one can hardly expect a higher investment rate and drastic changes inthe pattern of fixed capital reproduction. Against a background of a slower productiongrowth rates and low revenue increase for enterprises the forecast for 2002envisages prolongation of existing trends. In the situation when internal funds of the realsector of the economy are limited and there are no possibilities for long-term loans forthe Russian economy, the situation that provokes narrowing of investment demandwill be reproduced.
2. World oil prices forecasts. World oil prices forecasts are worked out by a number ofinternational organizations. According to the basis variant of the latest(December 2001) forecastby the US Department of Energy world oil price defined as the average price ofoil imported by the USA in 2002 will be 18.69 dollars/barrel or 15% lower, thanthe average world oil price in 2001.23. According to theprognosis of theInternational monetary fund the world oil price in 2002 will average 18.5dollars/barrel
Price of oil imported by the USA (dollars per barrel)
Source: U.S. Department of Energy/EnergyInformation Administration.
Prognoses for world oil prices dynamicsbeyond year 2002 are appreciably different depending on starting points oftheir authors as for forecasts for world oil production and demands. Accordingto the basis prognosis variant provides by the US Department of Energy worldoil price in year 2005 will be equal to 20.83 dollars/barrel. Quite close tothis forecast are prognoses by the OECD International Energy Agency (19.83doll./barrel), Natural Resources Canada (21.24 dollars/barrel) and Standard& Poor’sPlatt’s (19.47dollars/barrel). A number of organizations give lower forecasts for 2005: WEFAGroup – 18.39dollars/barrel, Gas Research Institute – 18.17 dollars/barrel, DeutscheBanc Alex. Brown –17.08 dollars/barrel, Petroleum Economics – 15.63 dollars/barrel. It should benoted, though, that the above values are given in 1999 prices and are adjustedfor inflation. The nominal oil price by year 2005 will be 1-2 dollars higher.
Thus, one expects that in year 2002 oilprice for Urals will not be lower than 18 dollars/barrel, i.e. it willcorrespond to the forecast price for Russian oil on the world market, used forthe expenditures side of the budget. For a period beyond there is aconsiderable scatter of predicted prices. At the same time the majority ofprognoses give prices at the level of 18 – 21 dollars/barrel.
3. Influence of external factors and thebalance of payment situation. The scenarios, suggestedin the Forecast are calculated with their starting points in the average oilprices for one barrel Urals $17 – 18.5 and $22 – 23.5 correspondingly. In both scenarios oil prices are below theaverage world level in 2000 – 2001. It is envisaged, though, that the exports as compared toexports in 2000-2001 will be even higher (108.5 against 105.5 billion dollars).
Simple econometric estimates made by ourInstitute based on data from 1996-2001 give the following export values: forthe first variant (17-18.5 dollars/barrel) 82 - 86 billion rubles and for thesecond variant (22-23.5 dollars/barrel) 95-100 billion rubles accordingly. The96.1 and 108.5 billion rubles given in the Forecast envisage an industrialgrowth. Admitting these export values when the assumed oil prices will be lowerthan the current ones one should bare in mind that mineral raw materials,ferrous and non-ferrous metals and goods made of them correspond to a half ofthe exports and physical volume of exported commodities and goods changesslowly. All this gives us grounds to suppose that the figures given in theForecast are very optimistic, that is exports estimates don not quitecorrespond to the basic values of world oil prices used in the Forecast, exportvalue of 108.5 billion roubles cannot be reached if world oil prices remainapproximately on the current level.
In 2000 and the first quarters of 2001 aconsiderable positive balance of trade and good export revenues together withthe condition of obligatory sale of a part of export revenues caused asituation when the Central Bank was forced to increase money supply while itscapacity to sterilize it by operations on the open market were next to nothing.All this created monetary preconditions for inflation. In 2002 this problemwill be partially smoothed over due to the following:
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