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Local budgets

Off-budget funds

The budget of the general government


billionroubles

% ofGDP

billionroubles

% ofGDP

billionroubles

% ofGDP

billionroubles

% ofGDP

%Receipts/Expenditures

Creditsreceived:

42257,7

0,5%

914,8

0,0%



43172,5

0,5%


Repayments of the majordebt sums:

-138055,1

-1,5%

0,0

0,0%



-138055,1

-1,5%


2.2. Credits formgovernments of foreign countries granted to the Russian Federation

6197,6

0,1%

0,0

0,0%



6197,6

0,1%


Credits received (used)

144252,8

1,6%

0,0

0,0%



144252,8

1,6%


Repayment of the majordebt sums

-32875,1

-0,4%

8720,0

0,1%



-45237,4

-0,5%


2.3. Credits by foreigncommercial banks and companies granted to the Russian Federation

0,0

0,0%

0,0

0,0%



0,0

0,0%


Credits received (used)

33242,0

0,4%

11995,4

0,1%



45237,4

0,5%


Repayments of the majordebt sums:

-26689,4

-0,3%

-12109,9

-0,1%



-43414,1

-0,5%


2.4. Other externalfinancing

0,0

0,0%

0,0

0,0%



0,0

0,0%


Credits received(used)

26689,4

0,3%

16724,6

0,2%



43414,1

0,5%


Repayment of the majordebt sums

-28126,6

-0,3%

-1597,3

0,0%



-29723,9

-0,3%


2.5. Changes in balancesof bank accounts of the budget in foreign currency

77292,4

0,9%

769,5

0,0%



78061,9

0,9%


Balances forthe beginning of the period

105419,0

1,2%

2366,8

0,0%



107785,8

1,2%


Balances forthe end of the period

2375,7

0,0%

17,6

0,0%



2393,3

0,0%


Exchange rate difference

-252873,5

-2,8%

-5579,6

-0,1%

0,0

0,0%

-284150,1

-3,1%


EXTERNAL FINANCING, TOTAL

-265007,1

-2,9%

-1559,9

0,0%

-52378,5

-0,6%

-340347,1

-3,8%


1.3.2. MacroeconomicForecast for 2001 and Comment on the Federal budget for 2002

Comment on the MajorFigures of the Macroeconomic Forecast Used for Federal Budgeting for2002

Analysis of the adjusted Forecast ofsocio-economic development of the Russian Federation in 2002, the results of which were used to draftthe federal budget for 2002, to forecast budget revenues in particular, givesus grounds to make several conclusions that contradict to each other to a certaindegree:

- firstly, GDP prognosis for 2002 (10700– 11000 billionroubles) that exerts major influence on budget revenues assessments are adequatelyrealistic and coincidewith out assessments;

- secondly, the Forecast contains certainitems (e.g. in parts that concern the prognosis for the balance of payment)that can, as we see it, call into question the correctness of calculations by thegovernment;

- thirdly, an important flaw of theForecast is a lack any of kind of reference points for the nominal and realroubles exchange rates dynamics. Substituted data (foreign trade figuresprognosis) give ground to suppose that an invariable or a dropping (according to the firstscenario) roubles exchange rate was used;

-fourthly, the expected character of theinflation process and rouble exchange rate dynamics make assessments of interdependence of majormacroeconomic variablesin 2002 depending on oil prices less unambiguous, which is practically not studied in theForecast;

- fifthly, our calculations show thatfederal budget revenues assessments are close to the upper bound of possiblevalues (taking actual execution of the budget in the first six months of 2001and most important changes in the tax legislature into account). Thus,predicted revenues can appear to be overestimated (e.g. if market situation forother, than oil and gas export goods and commodities, i.e. metals,timber etc., becomesworse) and the planned reserve funds will be lower, than the expected.

Further we will look in detail upon thefollowing major items:

  1. Forecast by the government;
  2. Expected dynamics of oil prices;
  3. External factors’ influence analysis (using situation with the balance ofpayment);
  4. Inflation processes in the economy’
  5. GDP prognosis reasonings;
  6. Assessment of tax receipts of the federal budget.

1. Forecast by the government. The 2002forecast is worked out in two variants. Figures of the conservative (1) and theoptimistic (2) variants depend on a combination of internal and externalfactors. An important point here is a supposition that repayment of foreigndebts of the Russian Federation can be made in full, according to the currentschedule of payments and the prerequisite about accumulation of reserves for2003.

Table 14

Basic Factors of the Socio-EconomicForecast for 2002, in % to the Previous Year

Year 2001.

Year 2002.

Optimistic

Conservative

Variant 2

Variant 1

World oil prices, Urals,dollars/tonne

22,9

23,5

18,5

16,5

14,5

Consumer price index

118,6

112,0-113,0

113,0

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