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20,47

20,47

30,10

30,10

Natural Resources Canada (NRCan)

April 1997.

20,97

20,97

20,97

20,97

Gas Research Institute (GRI)

January 2000.

17,90

17,90

17,90

-

Petroleum Economics, Ltd. (PEL)

February 2000.

16,78

14,78

-

-

Petroleum Industry Research Associates (PIRA)

October 1999

19,75

20,64

-

-

Note: The forecast of the US Energy Department- the average price for oil imported to the US; WEFA, DBAB, GRI- the average price for oil purchased by oil- refining companies; PEL- price for Brent; PIRA- prices for East-Texan oil.

The forecast of PEL for the period until 2010 and the international Energy Agency for the period after 2010 may be considered sharply differing form the others. The PEL’s forecast ( USD 14.78/barrel) is lower than the one of the US Energy Department for the variant of low prices ( 14.90). beyond 2010, the price forecast of the International Energy Agency exceeds the US Energy Department’s forecast for the variant of high prices by a. USD 2/barrel. At the same time, the forecast of the US Energy Department for the period between 2005- 202 is higher than the forecasts of the other centers, except the NRCan’s projections for 2005 and the one of the International Energy Agency for the period after 2010.

Proceeding from the US Energy Department’s projections for the short- and medium term prospects, one may envisage that the situation in the world oil market would still be favorable for both the Russian oil and gas companies and the national economy as a whole, for the revenues from the energy exports are an important factor of providing revenues to the state budget, maintenance of the Rb. exchange rate and paying off the country'’ external debt.

Fig.1

Source: US Department of Energy

Yu. Bobylev

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