Indices of value of residential property incomparable prices of December 1997 (IGS)
* - the indices were computed basing on theaverage bid prices for residential property in Moscow in 2000-2001 according tothe old methodology.
The index values for December 2001 showthat the value of residential property in Moscow in comparable prices, whilegrowing over 1.7 times in December 1998, in December 2001 still exceeded byone-third the level of December 1997. In St.-Petersburg, Ekaterinburg andNovosibirsk, this index exceeded the pre-crisis level by 24-28 p. p.; in Perm,Tver and Omsk the increase accounted for almost 10 p.p. as compared to thepre-crisis level. By contrast, in Ulyanovsk in December 2001, the residentialproperty value in the prices of the baseline period was 5 points less than the1997 level, and in Kaliningrad and Nizhny Novgorod the same parameter was lowerby about 20 points. In 2001, this parameter stagnated in Kaliningrad anddeclined only in Nizhny Novgorod.
Thus, basing on the assumption that themarket is gradually regaining the stability of 1996-97, one can expect thefollowing changes in the residential property value during the next two or fouryears (in the comparable prices of December 1997):
- in Moscow, Novosibirsk, Petersburg andEkaterinburg - a decline by 21-27 p.p.;
- in Perm, Tver, Omsk and Ulyanovsk– a stable levelwithin the limits of +/- (6-7) p.p.;
- in Kaliningrad and Nizhny Novgorod– an increase by20-22 p.p.
In other words, the transfer to the stablereal estate prices approximating the pre-crisis level in Moscow, Novosibirsk,St.-Petersburg and Ekaterinburg should follow the "leading" scenario (similarlyto the market situation in Moscow back in 1995), and the "lagging" scenario inthe other cities.
The summarizedprojections of price dynamics in the Russian cities in 2002
As in the previous years (after the 1998financial crisis), the projected changes in the residential property prices inthe Russian cities in 2002 were calculated heuristically basing on the RGRmethodology of price calculation. This methodology includes the analysis of theimpact of various factors on the price dynamics, and the generalization of thefindings by computation or logical techniques44.
The forecast for 2002, given theunfavorable situation with the world fuel prices, the increasing payments ofRussia's external debt, and the decelerating economic growth of the developedcountries, takes account of the following factors:
- the general economic outlook for thecountry (retardation of the growth rates as compared to 2001: the GDP rate willdecline from 5% to 3-4%, and the growth rate of the actual individual revenueswill decline from 5-6% to 2-4%);
- the estimated macroeconomic parameters(the reduction of the inflation rate from 18,6% in 2001 to 12-14%, a further7-9% devaluation of the rouble against the dollar. As a result, the dollarpurchasing capacity in Russia, which in 2001 dropped by 9%, is expected todecline by another 3-5% in 2002).
The implementation of the aforementionedmacroeconomic factors will serve to slow down theprice growth rates in most of the sample cities,except for those where the growth potential has not been realizedyet.
Basing on this approach, it is possible toforecast that:
- Moscow, St.-Petersburg, Ekaterinburg andNovosibirsk will follow (not quite synchronously) the "leading" stabilizationscenario, i.e. at the year start the growth of the supply prices (in the dollarequivalent) will slow down, although for a short time the actual prices willexceed the pre-crisis level (by 5-10%), while in spring and summer the priceswill slightly roll back, reaching the stable level of December 2001 by the yearend;
- in Perm, Tver, Omsk and Ulyanovsk thestabilization will follow the "lagging" scenario, i.e. in January-Februaryprices (in the dollar equivalent) will start slowly growing up to 80-95% of thepre-crisis level;
- in Kaliningrad and Nizhny Novgorodprices will be growing in 2002 at first at a rapid rate (by 20-25%) and then ata slower rate, and the expected stabilization may occur after 2002.
Thus, in 2002 the real estate market inmost of the Russian cities will complete the growthphase and will enter therecession phase, i.e. the retardation of the growthrates and the subsequent price stabilization, which would mostly beoscillating. The beginning of the recession phase in Ekaterinburg, Perm andUlyanovsk may already be expected this winter, in Moscow and St.-Petersburg -in the spring-summer of 2002. Those cities, which have not yet realized theirgrowth potential and have not approximated the pre-crisis price level(Kaliningrad, for instance), will experience a further price growth, and somestabilization may be expected after 2002.
The Russian real estatemarket in late 1990-s and its role in the sector of new marketservices
In 2001, the RF Goskomstat continued thepublication of official data on the real estate market performance, includingthe institutional aspects thereof with one-year lag.
The number of intermediary real estatetransactions concluded in 1996-2000
Материалы этого сайта размещены для ознакомления, все права принадлежат их авторам.
Если Вы не согласны с тем, что Ваш материал размещён на этом сайте, пожалуйста, напишите нам, мы в течении 1-2 рабочих дней удалим его.