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as of April 27, 2000

value

the change in value during the last week (%)

the change in value during the last month (%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA)

10888.10

0.41%

-0.84%

Nasdaq (USA)

3774.03

3.57%

-15.34%

S&P 500 (USA)

1464.92

2.12%

-1.55%

Bovespa Index (Brazil)

15440.11

1.56%

-12.50%

IPC Index (Mexico)

6844.78

6.18%

-9.99%

IPSA (Chile)

96.99

-0.22%

-2.69%

Nikkei-225 (Japan)

18019.17

-4.96%

-11.85%

Straits Times (Singapore)

2151.72

3.43%

1.65%

Seoul Composite(South Korea)

692.07

-9.09%

-22.23%

DAX-30 (Germany)

7221.74

0.89%

-5.54%

CAC-40 (France)

6247.86

0.21%

-1.04%

Swiss Market (Switzerland)

7400.80

0.40%

0.24%

FTSE 100 (UK)

6179.30

-0.99%

-4.13%

ISE National-100 (Turkey)

18470.06

9.04%

17.75%

Foreign exchange market. In April 2000, the Russian foreign exchange market reacted to the negative influence of fluctuations at the international financial and commodities markets to a much lesser degree than the Russian stock market. Some growth in the speculative demand for dollars which was observed in late April did not result in any serious drop in ‘ruble/dollar’ quotations. A continuious growth in the CBR’s foreign reserves (for details, see the section on the Monetary Policy) and the stabilisation of international oil prices, which took place in April, pacified the investors’ speculative activity. Moreover, notably enough, the privileges of a number of the Russian companies with respect to repatriation of gains in hard currency from abroad, which had been granted over the previous years4, were abolished, which became quite an important factor for the foreign exchange market.

In March 2000, the official dollar exchange rate dropped from 28.66 rubles/$ to 28.46 rubles/$ (see Fig.7). That corresponds to 0.70% a month. The ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT dropped from 28.6534 rubles/$ to 28.6019 rubles/$, i.e. by 0.18%. The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate dropped from 28.7005 rubles/$ to 28.6754 rubles/$, i.e. by 0.09%.

In April 2000, the official dollar exchange rate dropped from 28.46 rubles/$ to 28.43 rubles/$, i.e. only by 0.11%. According to preliminary estimations, in April the ‘today’ dollar exchange rate in the SELT dropped from 28.6019 rubles/$ to 28.4550 rubles/$ (as of April 26), i.e. by 0.51% a month. The ‘tomorrow’ dollar exchange rate fell from 28.6754 rubles/$ to 28.4333 rubles/$ (as of April 28), i.e. by 0.84%.

In April 2000, the trading volumes in the SELT did not change significantly. According to the preliminary estimations, in April the overall trading volume of the most liquid ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’ contracts made up 77.835 bln. rubles and 131.543 bln. rubles, respectively. If so, the total volume of turnover by these contracts in the last month should be at about 1% superior to the respective index registered in March 2000.

Figure 7.

Figure 8.

In April 2000, at the international financial markets the ‘euro/dollar’ exchange rate dropped by about 3.8%. This process manifested itself in the change of the growth pace in the ‘euro/ruble’ rate. Rather a high level of volatility of ‘euro/ruble’ quotations has been noted in the decreasing investors’ interest in this segment of financial market. According to preliminary estimations, in April the total trading volume by ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’ contracts on euro in the SELT made up 2.097 bln. rubles. That is at about 25.85% inferior to the respective index registered in March.

In March 2000, the official euro exchange rate dropped from 27.44 rubles/euro to 27.13 rubles/euro, i.e. by 1.13%. The ‘today’ euro exchange rate in the SELT fell from 27.8276 rubles/euro to 27.4222 rubles/euro, i.e. by 1.46% a month. The ‘tomorrow’ euro exchange rate dropped from 28.0 rubles/euro to 27.275 rubles/euro, i.e. by 2.59% a month (see Fig.8).

In April 2000, the official euro exchange rate dropped from 27.13 rubles/euro to 26.2 rubles/euro, i.e. by 3.43%. According to preliminary estimations, in April the ‘today’ euro exchange rate in the SELT fell from 27.4222 rubles/euro to 26.2313 rubles/euro (as of April 26), i.e. by 4.34%. The ‘tomorrow’ euro exchange rate in the SELT dropped from 27.275 rubles/euro to 26.2 rubles/euro (as of April 26), i.e. by 3.94%.

Table 2

Indicators of Financial Markets

month

December

January

February

March

April*

inflation rate (monthly)

1.3%

2.3%

1.0%

0.6%

0.7%

annualised inflation rate by the month’s tendency

16.8%

31.4%

12.7%

7.44%

8.73%

the RCB refinancing rate

55%

45%

45%

33%

33%

annualized yield to maturity on OFZ issues

65.81%

45.50%

33.13%

30.53%

33%

volume of trading in the secondary GKO-OFZ market a month (billion rubles)

12.13

8.52

19.46

17.91

12

yield to maturity on Vneshbonds issues by the end of the month (% a year):

4th tranche

46.64%

42.52%

35.40%

28.22%

31%

5th tranche

27.03%

25.51%

23.50%

18.25%

20%

6th tranche

24.08%

20.16%

20.12%

16.65%

17%

7th tranche

17.65%

16.85%

16.49%

14.34%

15%

INSTAR – MIACR rate (annual %) on interbank loans by the end of the month:

overnight

15.14%

38.14%

14.40%

26.26%

30%

1 week

20.0%

18.0%

20.0%

9.0%

10%

official exchange rate of ruble per US dollar by the end of the month

27.00

28.55

28.66

28.46

28.43

official exchange rate of ruble per Euro by the end of the month

27.23

28.23

27.44

27.13

26.2

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per US dollar growth

2.20%

5.74%

0.39%

-0.70%

-0.11%

average annualized exchange rate of ruble per euro growth

1.45%

3.67%

-2.80%

-1.13%

-3.43%

volume of trading at the stock market in the RTS for the month (millions of USD)

289.3

489.5

441.5

810.76

499.2

the value of the RTS Index by the end of the month

177.71

172.31

170.93

231.88

226.18

growth in the RTS Index (% a month)

58.16%

-3.04%

-0.80%

35.66%

-2.16%

*/ estimated

S. Arkhipov, S. Drobyshevsky

Investment in the real sector

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