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-4024

-1640

Total financing

5061

-175

3287

11232

-4846

-5976

*

The data on the execution of the federal budget in between January through February 2000 are represented in table 1.

The deflation of indices was made using CPI. As the Table shows, the level of tax revenues and the general level of revenues in real terms are substantially, more than 2.5 times, superior to the respective index of 1999.That became possible thanks to the growth in tax revenues from large taxpayers ( RAO UES, RAO Gasprom).

Between January to February 2000, the level of the federal budget revenues made up 17.5% of GDP2 ( see also the statistical Appendix) and expenditure- 14.1% of GDP, including non- interest expenditure- 10.3% of GDP. The level of budget proficit thus made up 3.4% of GDP3.

In February 2000, the revenue plan was fulfilled by 123% to the specified amount of the limit for February, while expenditure- by 82% ( the remaining part of the expenditure limits was funded in early- March. Of the overall amount of the federal budget revenue the share of revenues controlled by MTC was accounted for over 60% ( 133% of the limit on February), and SCS- 37% ( 113%).

Of the government expenditure items, it was the expenditure on defense and on servicing the public debt that were executed to the least extent ( 65.6% and 85% of the February limit, respectively). At the same time the expenditure on social services and transport were financed practically in full. In addition to transfers allocated form the Fund for Financial Support to Regions, in February regions received an additional aid package in a form of non- interest loans totaled Rb. 2.3 bln. (in all, form the beginning of the year- 2.9 bln., or 0.4% of GDP). The budget has also fulfill its obligations on paying salaries and wages worth a total of Rb. 12.9 bln. ( 1.6% of GDP).

In February, the government paid off foreign credits- the payments amounted to Rb. 11 bln. ( a. USD 400 mln.), while the attractions at the expense of the domestic debt made up Rb. 4.8 bln. ( of which Rb. 21 mln. at the expense of privatization).

According to the preliminary data of execution of the federal budget, between January through March 2000, the revenue made up Rb. 221 bln.( 111% of the plan, 17.9% of GDP) expenditure- Rb. 215 bln. ( 101% of the plan, 17.5% of GDP), of which non- interest expenditure made up Rb. 175 bln. ( 14.2% of GDP), and proficit made up Rb. 6 bln., including the primary proficit- Rb. 46.5 bln. ( 3.8% of GDP).

Over the first Quarter 2000, the tax revenues to the federal budget by economic agents controlled by the RF MTC made up a. Rb. 136 bln. (61.4% of revenue), the revenues controlled by SCC made up Rb. 74.1 bln., and those controlled by MinFin- a. 3.2 bln.

Because of the overfulfillment of the revenue limit in the 1st Quarter, a number of decisions were made, which were aimed at the advancing funding of expenditure on such items as national defense (Rb.3.2 bln.), Law Enforcement (3.3 bln.), Social Policy ( 2.8 bln.), Financial Aid to other levels of the government(4.2 bln.). The balance of the federal budget as of the end of the 1st Quarter made up Rb. 19.2 bln.

Table 2

Real tax revenues to the federal budget, by the data of MTC
(in prices of January 1998)

1998

1999

2000

XII

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

I

II

III

21542

10067

11586

12281

12287

10524

11369

12785

12838

12514

14238

16190

21455

15030

16161

18247

The dynamics of the actual tax indebtedness to the federal budget is represented in Fig.1. As of April 1, the overall volume of tax debts to the federal budget remained at the previously reported level- a. Rb. 258 bln., while the respective balance of debts, i.e. extra payments of taxes inclusive, was accounted for Rb. 199 bln.

The execution of consolidated budget between 1998 through 2000 is represented in Table 3.

3


( 1998 ).

1998

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Taxes

30126

33495

37888

45434

43139

40949

41345

35716

25597

28621

33866

50482

Revenues

34978

38540

45684

51720

50198

48945

48502

44052

32081

34197

39069

67225

Expenditure

44836

37683

60997

60148

58386

64209

58078

46184

32366

38604

45711

71973

Deficit

-9858

857

-15313

-8428

-8188

-15264

-9576

-2132

-285

-4407

-6642

-4748

1999

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

X

XI

XII

Taxes

21766

21622

30452

36691

32072

36152

37183

37947

33622

37038

48002

62535

Revenues

24864

24555

34416

42411

38693

43643

43953

45894

42105

44934

56431

76974

Expenditure

23174

28026

40726

44441

42940

46870

43805

45186

42243

42101

48357

94741

Deficit

1690

-3471

-6310

-2030

-4247

-3227

148

707

-138

2834

8075

-17767

2000

I

II

Taxes

34257

74621

Revenues

40177

86605

Expenditure

32667

73598

Deficit

7510

13007

S. Batkitbekov

Monetary Policy

In March 2000 one noted a tendency to decline in inflation rate. The consumer price index grew up by 0.6% over the month (7.44% annualised). The prices for services and for non-food goods demonstrated a high growth rate at 1.5% and 1.4% respectively. The prices for food stuffs rose at 0.5% over the month.

In all in the first Quarter the inflation rate amounted to about 3.9%, or 16.5% annualised. At the same time, the increment in prices for services reached 8.0% and for prices for non-food goods – 5.0%. Growth in the prices for food stuffs was the lowest, and in the first Quarter 2000 the respective price index made up 102.7%.

In April 2000 the weekly inflation rate slightly accelerated (see Figure 1). According to preliminary estimates, the increment of consumer price index over the month will be about 0.7%.

Figure 1

Figure 2.

In March ‑ April 2000 an intensive growth of the RCB's foreign reserves was registered (see Figure 2). The sole reason for that was an inflow of foreign exchange due to relatively high prices for oil and non-ferrous metals at the world market and the excess of foreign exchange supply over demand during last five ‑ six months, regardless of $3 bln. paid by the Ministry of Finance on foreign debts in the first Quarter of 2000 alone. For March ‑ April the RCB's foreign reserves have grown by $3 bln. (from 14.0 to 17.0 billion USD) and reached the level of end-1997 – early 1998 (exclusive of the IMF tranche granted in July 1998). Over the period between 1st of January and 1st of April 2000 the share of foreign exchange in the total volume of international reserves grew up from 68% to 75%.

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