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  • 1 См. Barro, 1995; Gray,1996a. Некоторые теоретические аспекты управленияроссийским долгом рассмотрены в (Вавилов, Трофимов,1997; Смирнов, 1998; ИФИ, 1999).

    2 См. ИЭППП, 1998 (б).

    3 Как показывает развитие ситуации в 1999 году, воссоздание рынкакраткосрочных государственных ценных бумаг становится необходимым для улучшенияструктуры денежной массы и снижения угрозы новых потрясений на финансовыхрынках. Отсутствие относительно надежных краткосрочных инструментов вложениясвободных средств при сохранении высоких рисков невозвращения кредитов вреальном секторе привело к образованию значительных объемов избыточных резервову коммерческих банков. В этих условиях увеличивается опасность атаки на курснациональной валюты и дестабилизации всех секторов финансовогорынка.

    4 Разумеется, в экономической литературе существует множестворабот, посвященных исследованию закономерностей развития рынка государственныхценных бумаг, колебаний доходности государственных облигаций, реакции рынка приэкзогенных шоках, на результаты которых мы будем опираться в нашей работе.Среди них особо следует выделить Shiller, 1990;Mishkin, 1993; Anderson, Breedon, Deacon, Derry, Murphy, 1996 и др.

    5 См.Приложение 1.

    6 ММВБ, 1997.

    7 ММВБ, 1994,стр. 23–28.

    8 Подробнее см. ИЭППП,1996(а).

    9 Подробнее см. ИЭППП,1996(б).

    10 Аналогичное соотношение между динамикой уровня процента ивременной структурой долга в периоды усиления политической нестабильностинаблюдалось в ряде стран-членов ОЭСР (Miller,1997).

    11 Подробнее см. ИЭППП, 1997.

    12 См. «Вестник Банка России», №33, 23июля 1996 года.

    13 Подробнее см. ИЭППП,1998(а).

    14 Подробнее см. ИЭППП,1998(б).

    15 Данное наблюдение отмечалось, в частности, в материалах круглогостола «Мировой финансовый кризис и условия стабильности российского финансовогорынка», проведенного в феврале 1998 года РЦЭР, Экспертным институтом,Институтом «Информационное общество» и ЗАО «КФП Капитал».

    16 Подробнее о ситуации в бюджетной сфере см. Синельников С., Архипов С., Баткибеков С., Дробышевский С., ТрунинИ. (1998).

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