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Between January through October 2003 vs. the respective period of the prior year oil exports grew by 17.9%, while that of petroleum derivatives – by 1.9% (Table 12). In the period in question the proportion of export supplies in the commodity resources of diesel fuel accounted for 56.5%, mazut – 56.3%, automobile gas –13.7% (for reference, in 19999 the share of export supplies in the automobile gas output accounted just for 7.2%). High international prices for oil boosted oil export revenues. In value equivalent, the oil exports during the period in question grew by 34.4% vs. the respective period of the prior year, which proved to be nearly twice as high vs. the rise in the physical volume of oil exportation. The aggregate value of oil and main oil products export over the period concerned amounted to USD 41.97 bn., or at 34% more than in the respective period of the prior year.

The domestic price rise for oil products and the real appreciation of the Rb. fueled the rise in importation of oil products. More specifically, the import supplies of automobile gas grew at 69.0% over the period in question vs. the respective period of 2002.

When compared with the prior year, the export growth rate of gas dropped notably, which was caused by a low effective demand on the part of the CIS countries (gas supplies to those countries fell by 8.7% over the period in question).

Table 12

Export of Oil, Oil Products and Natural Gas from Russia,
as % to the Respective Period of the Prior Year

2002
January-October

2003
January-October

Oil, total

112,8

117,9

Including:

To the non-CIS countries

108,2

118,6

To the CIS countries

141,5

114,4

Oil products, total

117,0

101,9

Including:

To the non-CIS countries

117,6

101,3

To the CIS countries

100,9

119,0

Gas, total

104,1

102,1

Source: Goskomstat of Russia

The evaluation of the data on the production and export of oil and petroleum derivatives (Table 13) shows that most (nearly 85%) of extra oil output was exported (either directly, or in the form of petroleum derivatives). The 2003 net export of oil and oil products reached 291.0 mn.t., i.e grew by 34.9 mn.t. vs. the prior year (including by 33.5 mn. t. falling on the growth in the export of oil and 1.4 mn. t. – on the export of oil products). In other words, as in 2000-2002, it was again the rise in exportation in 2003 that propelled a considerable growth in oil output. As a result, the proportional weight of net export of oil and oil products in the oil output reached 69.1%, with the net oil export exceeding 50% of its output. Similarly, the rise in demand for gas in the domestic and external markets in 2003 boosted the natural gas output notably, with the proportional weight of next export in gas production accounting for 29.4%

The aggregate export volume of oil and oil products grew from 262.5 mn.t. in 2002 up to 297.4 mn.t. in 2003, or by 13.3%. Crude oil supplies still dominated the structure of oil export and accounted for nearly three-fourth of the overall export of oil and oil products. As concerns export supplies of the latter, the major part fell on diesel fuel and mazut. Export supplies of natural gas grew by 2.1%. The main part of energy sources (83% of oil, 96% of oil products and 75% of gas) was exported to countries other than the CIS.

As the analysis of the Russian oil export dynamics over a long period of time shows, the 2003 aggregate net export of oil and oil products for the second time in line already bet its 1990 level (246.3 mn.t.) and nearly hit the 1998 level with record-breaking 291.6 mn. t. output. At the same time, the oil exports witnessed a substantial rise in the share of exported oil products that has grown steadily since 1996. As a result, the proportional weight in the oil-refinery produce in the total oil export grew from 18.2% in 1990 up to 26.2% in 2003 (Table 14). A sharp decline in the domestic oil consumption (according our computations, it plunged from 269.9 mn. t. in 1990 to 130.0 mn.t. in 2003, i.e. more than twice), the proportional weight of exported oil and oil products in oil output grew from 47.7 up to 69.1% over the period in question. By contrast to export of oil and petroleum derivatives, net gas export has lately failed to exceed the level noted over the late 1990s, and it proved to be close to the one of the early 1990s, though the proportional weight of net gas export in its output remained slightly over the pre- reform period (29.4% in 2003 vs. 28% in 1990).

Table 13

The Correlation between Production, Consumption
and Export of Energy Sources in 1997-2003

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003
(estimated)

Oil, mn. t.

Output

305,6

303,4

305,0

323,2

348,1

379,6

421,0

Export, total

126,9

137,1

134,5

144,5

159,7

187,5

221,0

Export to the non-CIS countries

109,8

117,9

115,7

127,6

137,1

154,8

183,6

Export to the CIS countries

17,1

19,2

18,8

16,9

22,7

32,7

37,4

Net export

119,0

129,2

128,5

138,7

154,7

181,3

214,8

Domestic consumption

132,2

125,1

120,5

123,0

122,9

123,5

130,0

Net export as % to output

38,8

42,4

42,1

42,9

44,4

47,8

51,0

Petroleum derivatives, mn.t.

Export, total

60,6

53,8

56,9

61,9

70,8

75,0

76,4

Export to the non-CIS countries

58,4

51,2

53,9

58,4

68,3

72,5

73,4

Export to the CIS countries

2,2

2,6

3,0

3,5

2,5

2,6

3,0

Net export

56,6

51,0

50,3

61,5

70,5

74,8

76,2

Oil and petroleum derivatives, mn.t.

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives

173,4

178,3

184,5

200,2

225,2

256,1

291,0

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives as % to oil output

56,7

58,8

60,5

61,9

64,7

67,5

69,1

Natural gas, c.m. bn.

Output

571,1

591,0

590,7

584,2

581,5

594,5

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