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On the background of the growth in demand and output, the growth in the number of enterprises with an excessive stock of finished products testify to the negative trends remaining in the industrial sector. It has been for the first time since September 1998 that the surveys registered the excess of replies above norm. In March, it was just the industry of construction materials and light industry that reported the lack of the stock of finished goods, while the stock has become excessive in other sectors and especially huge in the non-ferrous metallurgy and petrochemicals.

After fluctuating in December 2000 through February 2001, the dynamics of producer prices got back to the past growth rates. In March, the slowdown in the growth rate was registered in all the sectors, except electric power, chemicals, petrochemicals, and light industry.

The forecasts of changes in effective demand have not altered for the third month running. The main part (over 60%) of enterprises across the industrial sector on the whole hopes to maintain the volume of their monetary sales, while the others show the prevalence of forecasts of the growth in the volume of monetary sales. However at the sectoral level the forecasts are different in principle. In the IInd Quarter, an absolute contraction in sales is envisaged in electric power, non-ferrous metallurgy, forestry, wood - working and light industries, while the other sectors forecast a rise in effective demand.

The forecasts of changes in barter deals have also stabilized. The slowest decline in barter over the last 10 months may become possible in the industrial sector in the forthcoming future, i.e. enterprises have not yet finally believed in the renewal of the growth in effective demand, and they still are ready to employ direct goods exchange operations, should their sales remain low. None of the sectors forecast an absolute rise in barter now, but enterprises in the electric power sector and ferrous metallurgy expect its volume to stabilize.

The analogous situation emerges in terms of sales schemes with the use of promissory notes and off-sets. The industrial sector as a whole should experience a minimal decline in the volumes of such transactions. The most intensive reduction may become possible in the sectors for chemicals, petrochemicals and industry of construction materials, while such changes in other sectors should be zero.

S. Tsoukhlo

Oil and gas sector

the determining impact of an extremely favorable price situation in the world market for oil. The average world oil price calculated as an average price for oil imported to the US made up USD 27.66/barrel, i.e. at 60.7% higher than the level of 1999 (17.21 USD/barrel). The extremely high world oil prices and the depreciation of the Rb. created extremely favorable conditions for the Russian oil and gas sector and determined a significant rise in output, profit and investment in the oil sector. In 2000, the overall volume of output of oil and gas condensate reached 323.2 mln.t, thus showing a 6.0% growth vs. the prior year, while the growth in the volume of oil refining vs. 1999 made up 2.7%. The investment activity in the sector grew sharply: the volume of operational and prospecting oil drilling grew by 67.5% and 27.8%, respectively, and the placement of new oil wells into operation- by 53.7% vs. the respective indices of the prior year.

As the evaluation of the data on the output and export of oil and petroleum derivatives shows, in 2000 the main part of the additional oil output was exported (either directly, or in a form of petroleum derivatives). The net export of oil and petroleum derivatives in 2000 reached 200.2 mln.t., i.e. showed the growth at 15.7 mln.t. compared with the prior year (including at 10.2 mln.t.- thanks to the growth in oil exports and at 5.5. mln.t.- through raising the export of petroleum derivatives). In other words, it was the growth in exports that appeared a main factor of the rise in oil output in 2000 (over 80% of the increment in oil output can be attributed to growth in exports). As a result, the proportional weight on net exports of oil and petroleum derivatives in oil output reached 61.9% ( Table 1).

Table 1

Output, consumption and exports of energy sources form Russia in 1995-2000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Oil, mln.t

Output

306.8

301.3

305.6

303.4

305.0

323.2

Export, total

122.3

126.0

126.9

137.1

134.5

144.5

Net export

113.8

117.2

119.0

129.2

128.5

138.7

Domestic consumption

150.4

131.3

132.2

125.1

120.5

123.0

Net export as % to output

37.1

38.9

38.8

42.4

42.1

42.9

Oil and petroleum derivatives, mln.t.

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives

156.4

170.0

173.4

178.3

184.5

200.2

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives as % to oil output

51.0

56.4

56.7

58.8

60.5

61.9

Natural gas, bln. cubic m.

Output

595.4

601.1

571.1

591.0

590.7

584.2

Export, total

192.2

198.5

200.9

200.6

205.4

193.8

Net export

188.3

193.9

196.4

197.6

201.3

189.7

Domestic consumption

407.1

407.2

374.7

393.4

389.4

394.5

Net export as % to output

31.6

32.3

34.4

33.4

34.1

32.5

Sources: Goskomstat of Russia, Minenergo RF, the State Customs Committee of RF, author’s calculations

The structure of oil exports is still dominated by the export of crude oil, while it was diesel fuel and black oil that accounted for a major part of the export of petroleum derivatives. In 2000, the proportion of export in the output of diesel fuel made up 48.6%, black oil- 52.6%, petrol- 15.4% (in 1999 the share of export in petrol output accounted for just 7.2%). It should be noted that the government actually constrained exports of petroleum derivatives by setting special balance commissions to oil companies in terms of oil supplies to domestic market. The export of natural gas fell by 5.6%, which resulted from the contraction of supplies to the CIS countries, while the major part of energy resources (88% of oil, 94% of petroleum derivatives and 69% of gas) was exported to the non-CIS countries.

Because of the rise in the world prices for oil the Russian oil export has generated a sharp growth in foreign exchange export gains (Fig.1). The overall value of the exports of oil and main kinds of petroleum derivatives (petrol, diesel fuel, and black oil) grew from USD 18.82 bln. in 1999 up to 34.89 bln. in 2000, or by 85%. When compared with the crisis 1998 when the respective index made up just USD 13.96 bln., the value of oil and petroleum derivatives exports grew by 150%. As a result, last year the proportional weight of oil and petroleum derivatives in the Russian export reached 33.2%.

As the evaluation of the dynamics of the Russian energy exports over a long time period shows, though the overall net export of oil and petroleum derivatives recently has tended to grow, it is still substantially lower compared with the level noted between the late ‘80s- early ‘90s. As statistics shows, over the last ten years it fell from 246.3 mln.t. in 1990 to 200.2 mln.t. in 2000, or by 19%. At the same time, due to a sharp fall in the domestic consumption of oil (we estimate that it slid from 269.9 mln.t. in 1990 to 123.0 mln.t. in 2000, i.e. more than twice), the proportional weight of the exports of oil and petroleum derivatives in oil output grew from 47.7% to 61.9%. As long as gas output and export indices are concerned, during the period in question one noted a certain growth in both the physical volume of its export and in the proportional weight of export in output.

At the same time, by our estimates, the overall net export of oil, petroleum derivatives and natural gas fell from 407.6 mln. t. in oil equivalent in 1990 to 370.9 mln.t. in oil equivalent in 2000, or by 9%, while the proportional weight of net exports in the total output of oil and gas grew from 37.3% up to 43.7%. In this sense one can speak of an intensification of the export orientation of the oil and gas sector. It should be noted, however, that it was related to the contraction in the output of hydrocarbons as a result of the fall in their domestic consumption, decrease in supplies to the Near-Abroad countries and deterioration of their production conditions rather than with the growth in their absolute export volume.

The high world prices for oil determined a sharp growth in revenues in the oil sector. Gross profit (financial balance) of the oil sector, including the oil production and oil refining, grew from USD 6.32 bln. in 1999 up to 10.42 bln. in 2000, or by 65%, while the oil sector’s profit accounted for 40.4% of profits of the whole national industrial sector and 27.8% of the profit of the Russian economy as a whole. The growth in the oil sector’s revenues has determined a significant growth in tax revenues to the state budget and allowed oil companies a substantial increase in the volume of investment and reduction in credit liability (Table 2).

Table 2

Financial indicators of the oil sector's performance between 1997 through 2000 As USD bln..

1997

1998

1999

2000

Export gains from exports of oil and main kinds of petroleum derivatives

21,09

13,96

18,82

34,89

Profit ( balance)

3,52

0,60

6,32

10,42

Outstanding credit liability (as of the end of the year)

6,79

2,41

1,61

1,35

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