Table 2 provides main indices that characterize the actual organizational structure of the Russian oil and gas sector and the structure of the market for oil and petroleum derivatives emerged by late- 1999 ( by the official data reported for 1999). The indices in question illustrate the actual integration ( institutional merger) of oil companies LUKOIL and KomiTEK, Yukos and VNK (Eastern Oil Company), Tatneft and Nizhnekamskneftekhim, TNK and Kondpetroleum.
Indices characterizing the magnitude of economic performance and market share of the Russian oil companies in 1999
The output of oil and gas condensate, mln.t.
The company’s share in the output of oil and gas condensate, mln.t.
Gas output, cub.m. bln.
The share of the company in the gas output by oil companies, as
Primary oil refining, mln.t.
The company’s share in primary oil refining, as
LUKOIL + KomiTEK
YUKOS + VNK
SIDANCO – Kondpetroleum
The Bashkir Fuel Company
Source: RF Mintopenergo, the author’s calculations
As the data show, the vertically- integrated oil companies (VIOC) dominate in the sector. Their share in the overall national oil output is accounted for 86.6% and in oil refining- 87.7%. The largest Russian oil companies are: LUKOIL ( 18.7% of the total Russian oil output and 12.1% of its refining), Yukos ( 14.7% and 15.3%, respectively), and Surgutneftegas ( 12.3% and 10.1%).
Last year joint- stock companies operating in Russia’s oil industry produced 6.9% of the total oil output. As concerns the gas production, it is Gasprom which is an indisputable leader: in 1999, the share of Gasporm in the total gas output in the country was 94.2%, while yet 5% of gas are produced by oil companies, and a. 1% falls on other gas producers.
It may become possible that the further transformation of the organizational structure of the oil and gas sector would become an establishment of a State Oil Company ( Gosneft) on the basis of state-owned oil companies Rosneft, Slavneft, and ONACO. Such a development would imply a substantial change in the balance of forces in the oil sector. Proceeding from the data on 1999, such a company would be able to produce up to 32,5 mln.t. of oil and gas condensate, or 10.7% of the respective domestic output, and it would be able to perform a primary refining of 201 mln.t., or 11.9% of the overall refining in Russia. Hence, in terms of the volume of oil output and refining, and by oil deposits, Gosneft would be ranged the fourth among the Russian oil companies. Meanwhile, however, at the early stage of concept development the project has already encountered an opposition on the part of large oil companies, which suggested their options of redistribution of the government property, and the project has been temporarily frozen. The attempts to reanimate the project after the presidential elections are not at all excluded, and another scenario would become privatization of the state- owned oil companies, which would entail the transfer of their assets to the largest national oil producers.
One should also envisage a further expansion of the Russian largest oil and gas companies through acquiring production assets of foreign companies, primarily in the eastern Europe and CIS.
In March, the OPEC session made decisions regarding oil price levels that became determinant for the Russian economy’s development for the forthcoming months. Should the oil prices stabilize at the level of USD 22- 25/barrel, the prices for less qualitative Russian oil should not slid below the last year’s level ( a. USD 18/ barrel). Hence the OEC countries’ decisions should not affect the Russian economy in the forthcoming future, though the national budget and exporters may bear certain losses.
Main average monthly prices in January, the respective years
Oil (Brent), USD/t
Natural gas, USD/mln..м3
Source: calculated by the data of London Metal Exchange ( UK), New York Mercantile Exchange
In January 2000, Russia’s foreign trade turnover made up USD 8.8 bln., or at 16.7% more than in the prior month. The growth became possible thanks to a significant growth in export supplies. Russia’s export grew by 37.9% compared with January 1999 and made up USD 6.4 bln., of which 1.6 bln. fell upon the oil export revenues. Import supplies fell by 17.1% compared with January last year and reached the lowest value ever noted over the last five years- USD 2.3 bln. hence the balance again became positive- USD 4.1 bln.
The export dynamics still is determined by contracting prices and the price rise for petroleum derivatives in the world market, while the import dynamics finds itself under the impact of a relative growth in costs for import goods due to the Rb. depreciation and low insolvency of both the population and the Russian enterprises.
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