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Between 1999 though early –2000, the international oil supply was under the determining impact of the OPEC countries’ decision on the agreed contraction in oil output. In March 1999, the OPEC countries ( Iraq exclusive) reached an agreement on the contraction in their oil output at 1.7 mln. barrel/day. The agreement supplemented two earlier concluded agreements of 1998. The overall obligations of the OPEC countries on contracting oil output made up 4.3 mln. barrel/day. Despite the fact that the declared contractions were not fulfilled at a full rate, they allowed a substantial contraction in oil supplies, which has led to the depletion of its commercial stock and a sharp rise in world oil prices.

The radical change in the world oil market and the Rb. depreciation have established favorable conditions for the domestic oil sector. The characteristic feature of 1999 and the first months of 2000 appeared the renewal in the oil production and refining growth after the 1998 crisis ( of which the fall in output, profit, and investment was characteristic). In 1999, the total volume of output of oil and condensed gas made up 305.0 mln.t., or 100.5% relative to the prior year, while the volume of primary oil refining – 103.0 ( Table 1). The production of petrol grew by 2.2%, diesel fuel- 4.2%, black oil- dropped by 5.2%. After several years of a steady decline, the size of the operational fund of oil wells has stabilized. The proportional weight of idle wells in the operational fund dropped ( from 26.3%, as of late- 1998, to 24.4%, as of late 1999). The volume of operational and exploration drilling for oil grew for the first time ver the last years ( by 6.6% and 8.8%, respectively).

Table 1

Production, consumption, and export of energy sources from Russia between 1990 through 1999

1990

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Oil, mln.t.

Production

516.2

306.8

301.3

305.6

303.4

305.0

Export, total

220.3

122.3

126.0

126.9

137.1

134.5

Export to non- CIS countries

99.7

96.2

105.4

109.8

117.9

115.7

Export to CIS countries

120.6

26.1

20.6

17.1

19.2

18.8

Net export

201.5

113.8

117.2

119.0

129.2

126.6

Domestic consumption

269.9

150.4

129.7

130.0

123.2

128.6

Ptroleum derivatives, mln.t.

Export, total

50.6

47.0

57.0

60.6

53.8

50.8

Net export

44.8

42.6

54.4

56.6

51.0

49.8

Oil and petroleum derivatives, mln.t.

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives

246.3

156.4

171.6

175.6

180.2

176.4

Net export of oil and petroleum derivatives as % to oil output

47.7

51.0

56.9

57.5

59.4

57.8

Natural gas, bln. cub.m.

Production

640.6

595.4

601.1

571.1

591.0

590.7

Export, total

249.2

192.2

198.5

200.9

200.6

205.4

Export to non- CIS countries

96.0

121.9

128.0

120.9

125.0

131.1

Export to CIS countries

153.2

70.3

70.5

80.0

75.6

74.3

Net export

179.2

188.3

193.9

196.4

197.6

202.4

Domestic consumption

461,4

407,1

407,2

374,7

393,4

388.3

Net export as % to output

28.0

31.6

32.3

34.4

33.4

34.3

Aggregate indices

Oil and gas production, mln. t. of oil equivalent

1092,7

842,7

842,3

819,6

835,3

836,6

Net oil and gas export, as mln. t. of oil equivalent.

407.6

325,9

346,1

352,4

358.0

358.6

Domestic consumption of oil and gas, as mln.t. of oil equivalent

685,1

516,8

496,2

467,2

477,3

478.0

Net export of oil, petroleum derivatives and gas as % to oil and gas output

37,3

38,7

41,1

43,0

42,9

42.9

Note: the data on the geographic pattern of distribution of export in 1990 show export supplies to outside the borders of the former USSR and exports to the former Soviet republics.

Source: Roststagentstvo, the International Energy Agency, OECD, The RF Ministry for Energy and Fuel, the RF State Customs Service, the author’s calculations

As the calculations show, the domestic oil consumption grew from 123.2 mln.t. in 19998 up to 128.6 mln.t. in 199, or by 4.4%. This tend is likely to be related to the ongoing economic growth, primarily to the renewal of industrial output and the related growth in cargo transportation. By our estimates, at the same time, the net export of oil petroleum, and petroleum derivatives fell from 180.2 to 176.4 mln.t., or by 2.1%. It is the export of crude oil which still prevails in the structure of the Russian oil export supplies, while the major share of the export of petroleum derivatives falls on diesel fuel and black oil. In 1999, the share of export in the output of diesel fuel made up 48%, black oil- 42.7%, petrol- 7.2%. The export supplies of natural gas grew by 1%, and they. To a substantial degree were constrained by the CIS countries’ insolvency.

As a result of the growth in world prices for oil, the value volume of the Russian oil export grew significantly. With some drop in the physical volume, the total value of the Russian export of oil and main kinds of petroleum derivatives ( petrol, diesel fuel, and black oil) grew from USD 14 bln. in 1998 up to 18.3 bln. in 1999, or by 30.7%.

As the analysis of the long- term dynamics of the Russian energy export shows, the total net export of oil and petroleum derivatives is still significantly lower compared with the pre-reform period, though it has tended to grow over recent years. As the statistical data show, it slid from 246 mln.t. in 1990 to 176.4 mln.t. in 1999, or by 28.4%. At the same time, as a result of a sharp fall in the domestic oil consumption ( by our estimates, it slid from 269.9 mln.t. in 1990 to 128.6 mln.t. in 1999, i.e. as much as over two times), the proportional weight of export supplies of oil and petroleum derivatives in the oil output grew from 47.7% up to 57.8% over the period concerned. As concerns gas supplies, one notes the growth in both the physical volume of its export and in the proportional weight of export in the output. At the same time, according to our calculations, the total net export of oil, petroleum derivatives and natural gas slid from 407.6 mln.t. in oil equivalent in 1990 to 358.6 mln.t. in 1999, or by 12%. At the same time, the proportional weight of net export in the aggregate output of oil and petroleum derivatives grew from 37.3% up to 42.9%. In the light of that, one can state the intensification of the export orientation of the oil and gas sector, however, it should be emphasized that the said intensification is related to the fall in the output of carbohydrates due to the deteriorating conditions of their production, fall in their domestic consumption and in supplies to the Near-Abroad countries rather than to a growth in the absolute export volume.

In 1999, the oil and gas sector’s organizational structure experience visible changes. In September, LUKOIL management officially announced an acquisition of the control block of KomiTEK, the inclusion of which in LUKOIL strengthened the latter’s position in the oil sector notably and allowed LUKOIL being far ahead of its competitors. In October, Tymen Oil Company (TNK) acquired Kondpetroleum with the annual oil output of 2.5 mln.t. In the past, Kondpetroleum was owned by SIDANCO, against which at present bankruptcy procedures have been launched.

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