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Section 2

Real Sector ofeconomy

2.1. Main Trends in RealSector of Economy

Production of GDP: Factors andTrends

In the first half of 1998, the trends formedin 1997 continued their positive effects on the situation in the real sector ofeconomy. During the first quarter of 1998, the positive dynamic of the GDP andindustrial production remained effective. However, already this period has seenthe gradual growth of the negative effect of the world commodities marketsituation. In 1997, the export reduction reached 2.7% compared with 1996. Thiswas due to both the changes of the world prices on the main export commodities(including the sharp drop, in November 1997, of the world prices on the fueland energy resources) and the lowered demand for the feedstock resourcesresulting from the worsened world economic conjuncture.

From the beginning of 1998, the export hasbeen reducing not only from the money but also in the physical viewpoint (in1998, the export reduced by more than 17.0%). The loss of the incomes from theexternal trade had the negative effect on both the financial situation of theexport-oriented industries and the macro-economic situation.

In these conditions, the trends to thedecrease of the real volume of the GDP have renewed; the dynamic of theindustrial and agrarian production has worsened; the volume of the contractworks in the construction has diminished; and the volumes of the transportfreight turnover have decreased, as well.

Table 2.1

Dynamic of main macro-economicindexes
(% the relevant period of the precedingyear)


1997

1998

By quarters ofyear

1

2

3

4

Gross domesticproduct

100.4

95.4

100.9

99.9

96.8

89.9

Industry

101.9

94.8

101.3

98.7

96.1

91.8

extractive

103.0

97.0

101.6

99.3

98.7

94.7

manufacturing

101.8

92.8

101.0

97.7

94.5

90.2

consumergoods

102.1

91.0

101.4

99.1

96.3

91.4

Agrarianeconomy

100.1

87.7

99.2

100.7

78.0

85.6

Investments

94.5

93.3

94.4

93.6

94.1

91.6

Freight turnover oftransport entities

96.4

96.5

96.0

96.4

96.6

96.9

Communicationsservices

123.6

101.5




Retailtrade

101.4

95.5

99.6

98.4

99.8

85.6

Paidservices

103.7

97.6

99.7

101.0

97.6

93.6

External tradeturnover

101.5

82.4

99.0

96.3

78.8

60.8

Export

97.3

83.6

87.6

91.1

82.8

75.0

Import

107.4

80.9

115.6

102.4

74.1

44.4

Balance






Real disposable moneyincomes

103.5

81.8

90.6

87.2

81.3

72.2

Unemployed. officiallyregistered

79.4

82.1

77.6

74.4

82.1

94.4

Priceindexes:*






consumer

111.0

184.4

103.1

101.0

143.8

123.3

food

109.1

196.0

104.1

100.9

142.7

130.9

non-food

108.1

199.5

101.0

100.2

165.4

119.1

paid services topopulation

122.5

118.3

104.0

102.6

105.9

104.7

industry






finishedproducts:

107.4

123.2

101.3

99.2

105.3

116.5

purchasedresources

106.8

115.1

100.9

100.0

100.6

113.8

capitalconstruction

105.0

112.1

102.6

99.8

103.6

105.6

cargotransport

100.9

116.7

101.3

88.8

125.0

103.8

communicationsservices

104.2

106.2

103.9

99.5

101.9

100.9

Official exchange rate of US$*

107.6

341.9


*- end of the period to end of the precedingperiod

Source: Russian State Committee forstatistics (Goskomstat).

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