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-6,07%

28.9-4.10.98

0,60%

15,99

2,43%

38,81

-17,57%

5-11.10.98

0,40%

15,82

-1,06%

42,55

9,64%

12-18.10.98

0,30%

13,56

-14,29%

55,32

30,01%

19-25.10.98

2,10%

16,76

23,60%

60,42

9,22%

26.10-1.11.98

1,20%

16,01

-4,47%

57,54

-4,77%

2-8.11.98

0,80%

15,01

-6,25%

61,13

6,24%

9-15.11.98

1,00%

16,41

9,33%

59,32

-2,96%

16-22.11.98

1,70%

16,96

3,35%

63,36

6,81%

23-29.11.98

2,00%

17,88

5,42%

71,57

12,96%

30.11-6.12.98

2,60%

19,57

9,45%

64,00

-10,58%

7-13.12.98

2,20%

20,10

2,71%

58,67

-8,33%

14-20.12.98

1,80%

20,75

3,23%

59,24

0,97%

21-27.12.98

3,50%

19,48

-6,12%

59,94

1,19%

28.12.98-3.01.99

2,00%

20,65

6,01%

58,93

-1,69%

Sources: RF Central Bank, RF Goskomstat,Finmarket Information Agency, RTS, Institute for the Economy inTransition

To protect the national currency againstspeculative onslaughts in the situation of a floating exchange rate, inSeptember 1998-January 1999 the Central Bank took a number of administrativesteps to restrict demand for foreign exchange:

  1. It was decided to oblige exportersto sell 50 per cent (from September) and 75 per cent (from 1 January 1999) oftheir foreign exchange earnings on the interbank currency exchanges which holdCentral Bank licenses.

Table1.13 continued

GKO-OFZ weighted averageyield,

% per annum

GKO/OFZ secondary market trade, inblns of Rbs

GKOs/OFZs incirculation

by end of week, in blns of Rbs

GKO-OFZ auction rate,

% per annum

GKO-OFZ market portfolio durationby end of week, days

Week

-

-

-

-

-

14-20.9.98

-

-

-

-

-

21-27.9.98

-

-

-

-

-

28.9-4.10.98

-

-

-

-

-

5-11.10.98

-

-

-

-

-

12-18.10.98

-

-

-

-

-

19-25.10.98

-

-

-

-

-

26.10-1.11.98

-

-

-

-

-

2-8.11.98

-

-

-

-

-

9-15.11.98

-

-

-

-

-

16-22.11.98

-

-

-

-

-

23-29.11.98

-

-

-

-

-

30.11-6.12.98

-

-

-

-

-

7-13.12.98

-

-

-

-

-

14-20.12.98

-

-

-

-

-

21-27.12.98

-

-

-

-

-

28.12.98-3.01.99

  1. A new sales procedure whichenvisages the separation of trading sessions was introduced. At the morningspecial session, the mandatory sale of foreign currency by exporters and thepurchase of foreign currency against import contracts are held, with thetransactions implying immediate delivery. Based on the special session, theCentral Bank announces the official exchange rate for the following day. At theafternoon session, foreign currency transactions are conducted by commercialbanks for their own needs and for clients. Delivery takes place on thefollowing day.
  2. Commercial banks are obliged tosubmit to the Central Bank daily reports on their foreign currencytransactions; failure to comply with the Central Bank's instructions may entailbanishment from the trading.
  3. As from November 1, a seven-daylimit was imposed on how long foreign currency bought against import contractscould be kept on bank accounts. Upon the expiry of this term, the foreigncurrency not used for the specified purpose is to be surrendered forsale.
  4. It was prohibited to purchaseforeign currency at special sessions to pay for the import of services, worksand products of intellectual activity.
  5. Resale by resident legal entitiesof foreign currency purchased on the domestic market and deposited on specialtransit forex accounts may take place only at special morningsessions.

Also, the rules of managing C accounts fornonresidents were revised. A government resolution on innovation in respect ofgovernment securities aimed at reducing the export of capital envisaged aspecial procedure for nonresidents' use of cash received by them on innovationterms.

In our view, although these steps cannot beregarded as compatible with market principles, they are justified in thecurrent economic situation. It is indicative that there is practically nospread between the official exchange rate, the SELT dollar rate and the sellingand buying rates at the bureaus de change. This belies the assumption that theofficial ruble rate is a non-market one.

In February 1999, the ruble/dollar exchangerate stabilized. Having made payments on foreign debts in January, the CentralBank's interventions effectively fixed the exchange rate at slightly less than23 rubles to the dollar (see Fig. 1.10).

Production dynamics and socialstability

According to the Center for the Study ofEconomic Trends,17 the end of the panic on theconsumer market added to the ruble devaluation stepped up import-substitution,as a result of which the industrial production recession in October andNovember had a smaller scale than had been predicted from an inertialassessment of production dynamics.

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