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-0,2

0,0

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,0

-0,2

2.3.Loans from foreign commercailbanks and companies to RF

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,3

0,3

1,9

3,6

3,1

2,7

2,8

2,9

3,2

Table 1.6

Growth of arrears to the federal budget for1998


Deflated growth of arrears to thefederal budget (in millions of Rbs)

Deflated monthly tax receipts by the federalbudget (in millions of Rbs)

January

8298

15792

February

-4381

15274

March

2219

18467

April

10092

18527

May

8386

18617

June

543

17011

July

7172

17908

August

5051

14625

September

3143

10500

October

4498

12565

November

5589

14991

December

-1256

21415

The consolidated budget performance in1998 was, in general outline, similar to the execution of the federal budget,yet it does not show the three periods of the latter as distinctly. Budgetrevenues were coming in at a steadily growing rate from the start of the year,when the budget stood at 18.8 per cent of GDP (with taxes amounting to 16.2 percent of GDP), to 23.2 per cent of GDP in June and July (with taxes topping at19.8 per cent of GDP). Toward year-end, the consolidated budget revenues fellto 22 per cent of GDP in November (with taxes declining to 18.6 per cent ofGDP). Spending followed a similar pattern, peaking at 28.0 per cent of GDP inJune and July, from a much lower level, 24.1 per cent of GDP, and slumping to24.8 per cent of GDP in November.

An analysis of real monthly growth ratesin tax arrears to the federal budget (see Table 1.6) shows arrears to besteadily on the upgrade through most of 1998, February and December being theexception, largely due to netting-out operations (targetfinancing).

Table 1.7

Tax arrears to the federal budget for1998


Deflated arrears to the federalbudget (in millions of Rbs)

Growth rate of deflatedarrears

Arrears in per cent of monthly GDP

January

81566


60%

February

77644

-4,8

59%

March

78798

1,5

55%

April

85844

8,9

59%

May

91617

6,7

62%

June

91922

0,3

62%

July

96969

5,5

64%

August

97463

0,5

63%

September

72714

-25,4

57%

October

72863

0,2

58%

November

74136

1,7

58%

December

65515

-11,6

51%

Taxes due to the federal budget were muchdeeper in arrears than the year before – while they were 4 per cent ofannual GDP in 1997, the figure at year-end 1998 was as high as 6 per cent ofGDP.

A scrutiny of tax revenues as at the startof 1999 is revealing enough – they had shrunk, in comparable prices, from January and February1998, outperforming September 1998 alone.

Little can be learned from a review offederal budget tax arrears as they are captured as stock numbers, and notflows. Some meaningful interpretation can be put on the situation, however. Inparticular, the ratio of accumulated arrears to monthly GDP came out at 64 percent at mid-year (in July), a tad above the 60 per cent registered at the startof the year, in January, and way above the 51 per cent at year-end, inDecember. The decline of real arrears between August and September was notattributable to improved tax collection, but was engineered by a spurt ofrunaway inflation that month, with heavy consequences for the federal budget inthe first place: when and if arrears are paid their real value would be fardifferent from what it was when arrears had first emerged.

Accumulated tax arrears to theconsolidated budget stood at 9.6 per cent of GDP as at 1 January1999.

Table 1.8

Execution of the enlarged government budget(including extrabudgetary funds) for 1998 (per cent of GDP)


Federal budget

Local budgets

Extrabudgetary funds*

Enlarged government budget


in blns of

Rbs

% of

GDP

in blns of

Rbs

% of

GDP

in blns of

Rbs

% of

GDP

in blns of

Rbs

% of

GDP

% of

budget

REVENUE

1.Income tax, profittax

34974,4

1,3

132628,9

4,9

167603,3

6,2

17,8

1.1.Profit tax

34883,9

1,3

61495,0

2,3

96378,9

3,6

10,2

1.2.Personal income tax

90,5

0,0

71134,0

2,7

71224,4

2,7

7,6

2. Taxes on goods and services.License and registration fees

158455,4

5,9

72271,8

2,7

230727,3

8,6

24,5

2.1.Value added tax

104749,0

3,9

51763,1

1,9

156512,1

5,8

16,6

2.2.Excises on excisablegoods and selected mineral raw materials produced on RFterritory

48272,0

1,8

15317,9

0,6

63589,9

2,4

6,8

Excises on oil, including gascondensate

7373,4

0,3

7373,4

0,3

0,8

2.2. Excises on excisablegoods and selected mineral raw materials imported to RFterritory

4181,5

0,2

4181,5

0,2

0,4

2.4.License and registrationfees

428,0

0,0

3859,9

0,1

4288,0

0,2

0,5

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