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1,2

1,6

11.Other expenditure

0,6

1

1,1

1

1,1

1,3

1,2

1,3

1,2

1

1,2

1,1

TOTAL EXPENDITURE

10,5

11,8

13,9

14,1

14,1

14,3

14,2

13,6

12,7

12,4

12,6

14,3

CREDIT LESS REPAYMENT

4,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,6

0,4

TOTAL EXPENDITURE AND CREDIT LESSREPAYMENT

14,9

12,1

14,3

14,4

14,5

14,7

14,7

14,0

13,2

13,1

13,2

14,7

SURPLUS OF REVENUE OVER EXPENDITUREAND CREDIT LESS REPAYMENT

-4,7

-1,8

-3,5

-3,7

-3,6

-3,9

-3,9

-3,5

-3,0

-3,1

-3,2

-3,3

TOTAL FINANCING

4,7

1,8

3,5

3,7

3,6

3,9

3,9

3,5

3,0

3,1

3,2

3,3

DOMESTIC FINANCING

1,2

0,1

2,5

2,7

2,6

1,0

-0,6

-0,8

-0,8

-0,6

-0,3

-0,1

1.1.Change in bank acccountbalances of budget funds, in rubles

-0,3

-1,6

-0,8

-0,7

-0,5

-1,3

-0,1

-0,1

-0,6

-0,5

-0,6

-1,2

1.2.Short-term governmentdebt

1,5

1,9

2,9

0,8

0,6

-0,5

-3,4

-3,4

-3,0

-2,6

-2,3

-2,2

1.3.Federal floating ratebonds

0,0

0,0

0,0

-0,3

-0,2

-0,3

-0,3

-0,3

-0,3

-0,2

-0,2

-0,2

1.4.Non-marketable governmentbonds

-0,3

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,2

0,2

0,1

0,1

0,0

0,0

1.5.Federal fixed ratebonds

0,0

0,0

0,9

3,3

2,9

3,0

3,2

3,1

3,0

2,8

2,9

3,4

1.6.Government savingsbonds

0,3

0,1

0,3

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,1

1.7.Other domesticborrowing

0,0

0,1

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,3

-0,2

-0,3

-0,3

-0,2

-0,2

-0,2

EXTERNAL FINANCING

3,5

1,7

1,0

1,0

1,0

2,9

4,5

4,3

3,9

3,6

3,5

3,4

2.1.Loans from internationalfinancial institutions

3,2

1,7

1,2

0,9

0,7

1,0

0,7

1,1

1,0

0,7

0,5

0,5

2.2.Foreign government loans toRF

0,3

0,0

-0,2

-0,2

0,0

0,0

0,1

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,0

-0,2

2.3.Loans from foreign commercailbanks and companies to RF

0,0

0,0

0,0

0,3

0,3

1,9

3,6

3,1

2,7

2,8

2,9

3,2

The second period, from March toSeptember, registered a higher level of takes (an average 0.5 per cent of GDP)than the start of the year, and a higher rate of federal spending (around 14per cent of GDP). The spending went up mostly as a result of larger allocationsto service government debt (about 5 per cent of GDP). Tax receipts in thisperiod occasionally (in May) rose to 9 per cent of GDP.

Beginning in September, federal budgetrevenues sagged (to just over 10 per cent of GDP), and spending slid further byalmost 1 per cent of GDP, little or no allocations being made to service thegovernment debts in this period. The healthy growth of revenues and prodigalspending of federal money in December were precipitated by the clearance ofarrears, on one hand, and repayment of debt to public sector dependents (targetfinancing), on the other hand, as well as so-called bottom line evening(balancing of revenues against expenditures in the first week of January andsomewhat later).

To qualify, an analysis of month by monthperformance of the budget as percentage of monthly GDP reveals a morenoticeable uptrend in both the revenues and spending in March from the yearbeginning (revenues in March ran at 11.5 per cent of monthly GDP, of whichtaxes were coming in at 9.5 per cent of GDP, and spending surged to 18.3 percent of GDP, as compared to 10.2 per cent of GDP in January for the revenues,with taxes accounting for 8.5 per cent of GDP, and 14.9 per cent of monthly GDPfor spending), and a plunging downtrend for both the revenues and spending inSeptember through November from mid-year (the revenues in September to Novemberwere a depressed 10 per cent of monthly GDP, with tax takes averaging amodest 6.5 per cent of GDP, against spending at 14 per cent of monthly GDP).From October 1998 on, Goskomstat (the Russian Statistics Committee) ceasedpublishing monthly GDP figures, so our figures are just guestimates. Whichmeans that a likely overhaul of monthly GDP levels by Goskomstat may cripplethe numbers arrived at specifically through an analysis of the performancecurve as a percentage of monthly GDP more seriously than by an appraisal of thecumulative figures.

A month by month look at the federalbudget revenues suggests that both the receipts in general and individualtaxes, leaving aside the inspired hikes in December, peaked at mid-year. Toillustrate, the profit tax high point of 1.4 per cent of GDP (in 1997, theprofit tax take of 2.9 per cent of GDP occurred in August and May) wasregistered in April and May, VAT crested in April at 4.2 per cent of GDP (4.7per cent in April 1997), and, finally, customs duties and fees topped at 1.4per cent of GDP in May and June (1.7 per cent of GDP in April and May 1997).Excise duties are a thing apart, to an extent, being spread out evenly over theyear, more or less. The spike in non-tax revenues in December is set down tothe sale of the government’s shareholding in Gazprom, which was unloaded for Rb13.8billion.

A structural analysis of the federalbudget revenues shows VAT (with 3.9 per cent of GDP) to be the biggest earnerfor the 1998 federal budget. It was trailed by excise duties (1.8 per cent ofGDP), customs duties and fees (1.4 per cent of GDP), and profit tax (1.3 percent of GDP). Together, these four tax categories accounted for nearly 90 percent of all tax flows into the budget. In 1997, the situation was a trifledifferent, with 80 per cent of all revenues contributed by thesesources.

Taxes contributing the remaining 10 percent of the tax receipts included the earnings of the target budgetary fundsand nature management taxes. Non-tax proceeds (1.6 per cent of GDP) consistedof gains from the sale of public property (0.6 per cent of GDP) and foreigntrade receipts (0.6 per cent of GDP). Overall, the federal budget revenues wereequivalent to 11.3 per cent of GDP in 1998, significantly lower than the yearbefore, when they came to 12.4 per cent of GDP.

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