WWW.DISSERS.RU


...
    !

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 7 | 8 || 10 | 11 |   ...   | 20 |

In January prices for copper for cash deals at London Metal Exchange held at the level that has been the lowest since May 2005. As on January 30 the price for copper at LME made USD 3206 per ton, which is only by USD 135 per ton more than on the first trading day of the month. On average the price for copper in January was equal to USD 3221 per ton, which is a slight higher than in December USD 3072 per ton. However as compared with January 2008 the prices for copper reduced by 2.2 times. As a result of the month the stocks of metal at LME went up considerably and were equal to 491.5 thousand of tons as on January 30, compared with 340.6 thousand of tons at the beginning of the month. Over Balance Export Import 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Central Bank of the Russian Federation Fig. 1. Main Indices of Russian Foreign Trade (as USD billion) Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Ma Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep Sep - - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES 2008 the stocks of copper at LME increased by nearly 300 thousand of tons (by 2.5 times), reaching the figure that has been the maximum since November 2003.

The reason for the drop in prices for copper in the second half of 2008 was the world financial crisis and resulting recession that started in the majority of the developed countries of the world. As a consequence of the drop in the production volumes in the majority of the countries a considerable excess of copper formed in the period of time mentioned.

By the end of January the prices for aluminum for cash deals at LME dropped to USD 1.3 thousand per ton as compared with USD 1.5 thousand per ton at the beginning of the month. The stocks of aluminum at LME were 2804 thousand of tons as on January 30, which is approximately by 465 thousand of tons more than at the beginning of the month.

In January the average monthly price for aluminum for cash deals made USD 1413 per ton versus USD 1490 per ton a month ago. As compared with January 2008 the prices for aluminum fell by mre than 42%.

The drop in prices for aluminum was accounted for by the excess of the metal at the market, evolving when the demand reduced as a result of the world economic crisis, and, as a result, a considerable increase in market exchange stocks and producers stocks.

In January 2009 the prices for nickel for cash deals at LME increased a bit, by the end of the month fluctuating in the range of USD 11.0-11.5 thousand per ton. On average in January the price for nickel made USD 11.3 thousand per ton, which is higher than in December and November (USD 9.7 thousand per ton and USD 10.7 thousand per ton, correspondingly). However as compared with the price of USD 27.7 thousand per ton in January 2008 the prices for nickel reduced nearly by half.

The main reason for the drop of prices in 2008-2009 was the decrease in the volumes of consumption as a result of the reduction in the volume of stainless steel production. The increase in nickel stocks at LME sustained in January 2009. As a result, by the end of the month the stocks of nickel at LME went up by 83.7 thousand of tons versus 78.4 thousand of tons at the beginning of the month.

Table AVERAGE MONTHLY WORLD PRICES IN JANUARY OF CORRESPONDING YEAR 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Oil (Brent), 15.3 11.3 25.5 26.0 19.4 28.1 31.3 42.9 62.5 54.8 92.4 45.USD/barrel Natural gas, 2.097 1.426 2.431 5.214 2.146 5.048 6.156 6.907 9.725 6.917 7.860 5.USD/1 mln BTU Petroleum, USD/ 0.507 0.494 0.739 0.865 0.573 0.852 0.992 1.291 1.849 1.590 2.38 1.gallon Copper, USD/ton 1682 1528.2 1887.9 1849.6 1557.8 1571.3 2441.9 3170 4734 5668.7 7061.6 3220.Aluminum, 1480 1301.4 1695.5 1641.5 1377.9 1291.1 1608.2 1832 2378 2808.3 2445.5 1413.USD/ton Nickel, USD/ton 5496 4550.8 8338.1 7091.3 6094.6 7643.9 14855 14505 14555 36795 27689 Source: calculated on the basis of London Metal Exchange, International Oil Exchange (London) In January 2009 the proportion of fuel and energy commodities in the structure of export reduced by 5.8%, the proportion of minerals non-energy commodities increasing by 3.5% and the proportion of machinery and equipment by 1.3%.

In January 2009 Russian exported 18.6 million of tons of oil, which is by 2% less than in January 2008. It should be noted that in terms of value oil export decreased by 2 times and made USD 5.5 billion. The export to non-CIS countries was equal to 17.2 million of tons of oil (decrease by 3.4% as compared wit the corresponding figure of 2008) worth USD 5.billion (twofold decrease). Export of oil to CIS countries over the period mention made 1.million of tons (growth by 22%) worth USD 347.8 million (decrease of 42%).

FOREIGN TRADE Russia and Ukraine could not reach an agreement on the conditions for gas supplies to Ukraine and its transit to European countries since the end of December. On January Russia stopped completely the gas supplies through the territory of the Ukraine because Ukraine had shut the transit gas pipelines, and the supplies were renewed after the conclusion of the contracts on January 21.

As a result in January 2009 export of natural gas to non-CIS countries reduced by 71.7% as compared with the corresponding period of 2008 down to 4.8 billion of cu. m. 0.8 billion of cu. m. of natural gas was sold to CIS countries, this is by 72.8% less than in January 2008.

Export of fuel and energy commodities reduced by 2.2 times as compared with last January (a year ago it went up by 1.7 times), export of mineral non-energy commodities by 1.times (in January 2008 it increased by 32.4%), export of machinery and equipment by 32.1% (last January it increased by 1.6 times), export of other commodities by 30.7% (in January 2008 it demonstrated the growth of 45%).

The reduction of Russias export value volume in January 2009 as compared with January 2008 occurred as a result of both the drop of average prices of export goods and because of the decrease in physical volumes of export supplies. Index of average export prices in January 2009 was 56.4% of their level in January 2008, whereas index of export physical volume reduced to a smaller extent and was equal to 88.1%. The most considerable decrease was observed for fuel and energy commodities, whose index was equal to 49.4%, and for ferrous and non-ferrous metals (70.2%).

Export to CIS countries because of the considerable drop in physical volumes and prices suffered more serious contraction than export to non-CIS countries. The decrease in the export to non-CIS countries was mainly connected with the decrease in average prices.

Table INDEX OF COMMODITIES EXPORT IN JANUARY 2009 (FIGURE OF JANUARY REGARDED AS 100) By value By physical volumes Prices index Total 49,7 88,1 56,Non-CIS countries 50,1 90,2 55,CIS 47,2 75,6 62,Source: Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation In January 2009 Russian import was equal to USD 10.3 billion, which is by 34.1% below the figure of January 2008. Such a considerable decrease in Russian import at the beginning of 2009 was accounted for by the drop in average prices for import goods and the reduction of their physical volumes.

The decrease in import was observed for all the consolidated positions of the trade commodities list, including machine-building production by 47%, foodstuffs and the raw materials for their production by 25%, chemistry production by 29%, textile production and footwear only by 2.7%. The decrease of import was attributed to the increase in import duty rates for motor vehicles, meat and sugar, but the main reason for such a sharp fall is a devaluation and credit shock that was supplemented by the decrease in the real incomes of the population.

As to the category of foodstuffs, the import of sugar, alcoholic and alcohol-free beverages, oil, meat and by-products reduced by more than 50%. The import of crops reduced by 34.4%, of fish by 26.5%. At the same time import of vegetables increased by 3.8%, import of tobacco by 3.4%, of fruit and nuts by 2.7%.

The proportion of machinery and equipment in the trade structure of import was 42.4% (50.0% in January 2008), the proportion of foodstuffs and raw materials for their produc- - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES tion 17.8% (14.6%), of chemistry industry production 14.9% (13.1%), of textile goods and footwear 7.8% (5.2%).

Among the goods of the chemistry industry import of polymers and rubber decreased by 46.8%, products of organic and inorganic chemistry by 35.0%, fragrance and cosmetics commodities by 30.4%, soap and synthetic detergents by 26.7%, whereas import of the pharmaceutical production went up by 8.8%.

The decrease in the physical volumes and prices of import from CIS countries was more pronounced than that from non-CIS countries.

Table INDEX OF COMMODITIES IMPORT IN JANUARY 2009 (FIGURES OF JANUARY REGARDED AS 100) By value By physical volumes Price index Total 62.6 66.7 93.Non-CIS countries 64.5 67.7 95.CIS 52.4 61.2 85.Source: Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation The most important result of the development of the foreign trade in the first month of 2009 was the strengthening of the trade balance, which more than doubled as compared with the previous month and was equal to USD 9.4 billion. This is accounted for by the acceleration of import decrease rates at the beginning of the year. Whereas in November 2908 import reduced only by 0.9% as compared by the corresponding month of the previous year (export reducing by 15.8%), in December 2008 by 0.7% (26.1%), in January the reduction was of 34.1% (43%).

The decrease of reciprocal trade was observed for nearly all the countries except Sweden, the turnover with which went up by 20.5% in January 2009 as compared with January 2008, Australia (18.3%), Indonesia (57.9%), Singapore (60%), Turkmenistan (88.1%), India (22.4%) and Cuba (18.6%).

The following countries were Russias main trading partners in January 2009: China, the turnover with which was USD 2.4 billion (64.6% versus January 2008), Netherlands USD 2.1 billion (46.7%), Germany USD 1.8 billion (41.6%), Italy USD 1.7 billion (39.7%), Turkey USD 1.5 billion (68.7%), Japan USD 1.1 billion (69.8%), the USA USD 1 billion (78.8%).

Under difficult economic conditions the Russian Government continues to work to protect domestic producers. Thus, in order to protect the internal market the customs import duty rates for some kinds of hot-rolled metal, cold-rolled metal, profiled iron, some kinds of seamless pipes, alloys on the basis of copper, copper wire rods and sections, copper powder and scales, copper foil, copper pipes and tubes, motor mixers.

According to the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No 179 from 14.02.09 seasonal duty rates for import rice were introduced. The decree came into effect on February 15, 2009, but was promulgated only on March 4. The rates of seasonal duties apply to rice and flour-and-cereals goods imported to Russia in the period of up to May 15, inclusive, and make Euro 0.16 per kilo.

The main aim of the adopted decree was to support the domestic producers of rice. In 2008-2009 good harvest in the major countries exporting rice, lift of bans for export by a number of exporting countries resulted in a sudden drop in prices at the world market starting eith the second half of 2008. The result was that the import rice became cheaper than that produced domestically.

However starting with October 2008 the devaluation commencing the price of import rice in Russia started to grow intensively. The price for domestically produced rice by the FOREIGN TRADE producers of Krasnodarsky krai went up by 40% in February and became equal to that of import rice (RUR 30-31 per 1 kilo by the producer). In connection with the introduction of the seasonal duty rates the import rice will become more expensive by 4-6 rubles per kilo.

As a result retail prices for import rice will become non-competitive.

During the past few years the rice industry in Russia became significantly stronger as a result of the evolvement of the effective entrepreneurs and formation of large holdings.

Rice is grown primarily in Kransnodarsky krai in Russia. In 2008 the volume of the market was 620 thousand of tons, of which 50% comprised import. The aim of the Government is to increase the proportion of the domestic rice up to 70%.

The Government Committee on the protective measures for the foreign trade recommended increasing the lower level of the import duty rates for raw sugar from USD to 165 per ton. At the same time the committee reduced the period for application of the seasonal duty rate by 1 month and now it will be in effect from December 1 to April 30. The constant duty rate that earlier came into effect on June 1 will come into effect on May 1.

The existing import duty rates for raw sugar basic of USD 140 per ton and seasonal of USD 220-270 per ton were adopted as long ago as 2003. In the opinion of the producers since that time the costs of the beet-sugar production increased considerable as compared with the price for sugar, and so they addressed the Government with the request to increase the constant duty rate up to USD 180 per ton.

The new duty rate will enable the producers of sugar to have high profit and at the same time will inevitable result in the increase in prices for sugar and for all kinds of foodstuffs in whose production it is used. Starting with 2009 wholesale prices for sugar went up from RUR 19 to 23 per 1 kilo and from June they may increase up to RUR 29. As a result the price for foodstuffs may increase by 5-50% depending on the proportion of sugar in its prime cost.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 7 | 8 || 10 | 11 |   ...   | 20 |



2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .