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The situation was similar in the first months of 2009 when it concerned the enterprises of different sizes: the bigger the enterprise is the more chances it has to obtain the credit.

The ability of the enterprises to repay the credits that have already been taken may cause problems to both the borrowers and the lenders. On the whole throughout the industry among the enterprises that have credits (considered to be 100%) only 60% of the borrowers estimate their financial possibilities as sufficient for execution of their liabilities by the existing debts to the banks. This rating of the reliability is headed by metallurgy (85% of enterprises are able to repay credits), light industry (80%) and foodstuffs industry (74%). The biggest problems with credits repayment may be experience by the banks that have credited construction industry enterprises (25%). The reliability of machine-building plants is estimated to be 52%.

It is the directors of the enterprises that are most optimistic in estimating the ability of the enterprises to repay the debts. The level of the certainty among them is equal to 68%.

The vice-directors are certain in the abilities of their enterprises by 58%, and the heads of the economic departments by 40%.

INVESTMENTS IN REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY INVESTMENTS IN REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY O.Izryadnova Low figures of the investment activity in the last quarter of 2008, the increase in the volumes of unfinished construction, high interest rates and the limitation of credits define unfavorable background for the economy development in 2009. Over January-February 2009 the investments in fixed assets reduced by 14.7% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year. Under existing dynamics the expected volume of investments as a result of the year will be approximately equal to 86% of the level of 2008.

The trend for the investments in fixed assets to grow at higher rates than the GDP has been observed in the Russian economy since 2002. In 2008 this ratio sustained, though, as compared with 2007, the growth rates of both the GDP and the investments in foxed assets have slowed down considerably. In 2008 the growth of the GDP made 5.6% versus 8.1% in 2007, while the investments in fixed assets went up by 9.8% versus 21.1%.

Slow-down of economic growth rates changed the situation in the investments sector.

Throughout the whole 2008 there was a gradual slow-down of investments growth rates observed: from 123.6% in the 1dt quarter to 117.4% in the 2nd and 11.78% in the 3rd quarter.

Over January-September investments in fixed assets went up by 13.1% versus the growth of 21.3% in the corresponding period of 2007. In the environment of the financial crisis in November 2008 the decrease of the investments in fixed assets of 0.9% was observed, while the decrease in December 2008 made 7.5% as compared with the corresponding months of 2007.

23,21,17,4 17,13,12,11,7 11,10,9,10 8,8,5,7,7,7,3 7,6,4 6,6,5,5 5,2,4,1,1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 I II III IV -2,-Inv estments in fixed assets Workload in construction Housing implementation GDP Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 1 GDP, Investments in Fixed Assets, Workload in Construction, Housing Implementation growth rates in 1999 2008, as percentage to the previous year - - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES As a result, in the 4th quarter 2008 for the first time since 2000 the investments growth rates turned negative and made 97.7% versus the corresponding period of the previous year.

The anticipating growth of construction of the production and infrastructure objects as compared with the sharp slow-down in the rates of housing implementation was characteristic for 2008. Over January-September 2008 the total volume of workload in construction growing by 14.5%, increase in housing implementation made 4.0% versus, correspondingly, 18.1% and 30.9% in the analogous period of the previous year. Slow-down of the growth rates of the workload in construction occurring in the 4th quarter 2008 to 103.8% versus 118.2% in the 4th quarter 2007 was accounted for by the stabilization of the volumes of housing implementation in November 2008 and the volumes of production construction in December 2008 at the level of the corresponding periods of 2007.

The growth rates of the economy slowing down, the change in the role of the budget funds among the sources of financing of the investments in fixed assets is observed. In JanuarySeptember 2008 RUR 658.2 billion was financed at the expense of budget funds, which made 16.8% of the total volume of investments in fixed assets on the whole throughout the economy, and 10.0% was financed at the expense of the federal budget. In October-December 2008 the total volume of investment decreasing in absolute terms the increase in the volume and share of the federal budget funds in the structure of sources of investments financing was one of the conditions for mitigation of negative aftermaths of the sharp limitations of enterprises own funds. In the 4th quarter 2008 RUR 295.5 billion of investments in fixed assets was financed at the expense of the federal budget funds as compared with RUR 214.9 billion over the first months of the same year.

Table STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENTS IN FIXED ASSETS AS BROKEN BY FINANCING SOURCES, AS PERCENTAGE TO THE TOTAL (NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SUBJECTS OF SMALL-SCALE ENTERPRISE AND THE PARAMETERS FOR INFORMAL ACTIVITY) Including 2007 January- OctoberSeptember December Investments in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 including by the sources of financing:

own funds 40.4 40.0 42.8 35. of which:

profit 19.4 18.6 20.1 16.borrowed funds 59.6 60.0 57.2 64. of which:

banks credits 10.4 11.1 11.0 11. including by foreign banks 1.7 2.4 1.7 3. borrowed funds from other organizations 7.1 6.5 6.8 6.budget funds: 21.5 21.0 16.8 28.federal budget 8.3 8.1 5.5 12.budgets of the subjects of the Russian Federation and 11.7 10.4 10.0 13.local budgets other 20.1 21.1 22.3 19.of which funds received for the share participation in 3.7 3.3 3.5 2.construction of which means of the population 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.Foreign investments in the total amount of the 4.3 4.6 5.2 3.investments in fixed assets Preliminary data Source: Federal State Statistics Service INVESTMENTS IN REAL SECTOR OF ECONOMY The shift from the financing of the investments in fixed assets at the expense of the enterprises and organizations own funds to the expansion of the participation of the borrowed funds has been a trend observed in the recent years. The development of this process was accounted for by the increase in the activity of the banking sector, growth of the investments in housing building by the population and the intensive inflow of the foreign capital. Until recently low real value of credit resources contributed in increase in number of the borrowing organizations. Among the factors influencing the dynamics of the credits and other borrowed funds one can highlight the growth of the organized forms of populations savings. a result of 2007 59.6% of the total amount of investments in fixed assets was accounted for the borrowed funds. As a result of 2008 the share of the borrowed funds in the structure of sources of investments financing made 60%, which corresponds well with the figure of the previous year.

In 2008 the share of banks in the structure of investment resources made 11.0% against 10.4% in 2007 and 9.3% in 2006, however the trend for the increase of the insurance and investments companies, industrial and trading enterprises in the financing of the investment activity did not sustain last year.

Attention should be paid to the peculiar features of foreign banks participation in the financing of investment activity. In contrast to the preceding years in 2008 the net outflow of the capital and foreign investments is observed. According to the preliminary estimation of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, in the 4th quarter 2008 net outflow of the of the private capital made USD 130.5 billion. In January-September 2008 the share of foreign investments in the total volume of investments was 5.2%, and the share of credits issued by foreign banks increased up to 1.7% versus 1.1% in the corresponding period of the previous year. In the fourth quarter the volumes of direct foreign investments decreasing in absolute terms by 4.0% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, the share of foreign investments being 3.7% of the total volume of investments in the Russian economy.

Financial crisis defined the specific features of the investors behavior at the market of housing construction. Whereas in January-September the share of funds received for the share participation in the construction made 3.5%, of which the funds of population accounted for 1.7%, in the fourth quarter these figures were equal t0 2.9% and 1.0%, correspondingly. As a result of 2008 the share of funds directed to the share participation in the construction made 3.3% of the total amount of the investments in fixed assets, of which the means of the population were 1.5%.

Throughout 2008 quite considerable changes took place in the structure of investments in fixed assets by kinds of economic activities (table 2). As a result of 2008 the growth rates of investments in the industry remained in the positive field, the increase in investments in fossil fuels extraction being 4.6%, in processing industries 7.8%, in electricity, gas and water production and distribution 11.3%. It should be noted at the same time that the increase in the concentration of the investments resources in industry up to 44.1% of the total volume of investments in the economy occurring in January-September was replaced by the reduction of the investment activity scale in extractive and processing industries, as well as in electricity, gas and water production and distribution in the fourth quarter 2008. As a result, the share of investments in industry in the total volume of investments in the fixed assets in the economy was equal to 38.4% over the period of October-December 2008.

As compared with 2007, there was reduction of investments observed in construction (by 8.3%), in trade (by 4.4%), in communication (by 4.9%). The investments in the transportation maintained quite high dynamics at the expense of railway transportation, making 112.4% as on 2007.

- - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table STRUCTURE OF INVESTMENTS IN FIXED ASSETS BY KINDS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (NOT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SUBJECT OF SMALL-SCALE BUSINESS AND THE PARAMETERS OF INFORMAL ACTIVITY) including 2007 January-Sep- October-Detember cember* Total 100 100 100 including by kinds of economic activities:

agriculture, hunting and forestry 4.5 3.9 4.2 3.industry 40.7 42.0 44.1 38.minerals extraction 16.8 16.6 18.3 13.of which fossil fuels extraction 15.3 15.1 16.7 12.processing industries 15.6 16.5 17.5 14.electricity, gas and water production and distribution 8.3 8.9 8.3 9.Construction 2.7 2.4 2.7 2.Wholesale and retail trade; motor vehicles and motorcycles services; repair of household appliances and 3.6 2.7 2.7 2.items of private use Transportation 18.9 21.9 20.4 24.Communication 4.7 4.1 4.1 4.Financial activity 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.Operations with real estate, rent and services rendering 12.8 11.7 11.9 11.Education 2.4 2.2 1.8 2.Public administration and military defense security;

2.1 2.0 1.6 2.compulsory social security Health care and social services rendering 2.8 2.6 2 3.Rendering of other utilities, social and personal services 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.*preliminary data Source: Federal State Statistics Service Low figures of investments activity in the 4th quarter 2008, increase in the volumes of the unfinished construction, high interest rates and limited availability of credits account for the unfavorable environment for the economy development in 2009.

Over January-February 2009 the investments in fixed assets reduced by 14.7% versus the corresponding period of the previous year. Under existing dynamics the expected volume of investments as a result of the year will be equal approximately to 86% of the level of 2008.

FOREIGN TRADE FOREIGN TRADE N.Volovik The first month of 2009 was characterized by the rates of export and import supplies decrease that were record-breaking. The dynamics of the main indices of the Russian foreign trade has been the worst since the end of 1998. The Government of the Russian Federation continues to work on the protection of the domestic producers.

In January 2009 Russias foreign trade turnover calculated on the basis of the balanceof-payments methodology reduced by 40.2% down to USD 30 billion as compared with January 2008. This has been the lowest figure since January 2008.

In January 2009 Russias export made USD 190.7 billion, having reduced by 43% as compared with the corresponding figure of January 2008, which has been the biggest drop in export figures for the past 10 years. The reduction in the export value in January was caused by the drop in prices for the main goods of the Russian export, and first of all, oil.

Thus, whereas last January the price reached USD 92.4 per barrel, in January 2009 average monthly figure decreased by more than half down to USD 45.7 per barrel.

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