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- - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES FOREIGN INVESTMENTS E.Ilukhina 2008 was characterized by the decrease in the inflow of the foreign investments in the Russian economy against the background of the increase in the capital outflow. Foreign investments are still concentrated in the industry and sphere of trade, though the latter is losing its attractiveness gradually. As to the industry, the foreign investors were mainly interested in processing industries. As to the geographic structure of the investments the biggest amount of the investments in the Russian Federation was directed from the Cyprus, the UK and the Netherlands, whose share account for nearly one half of the foreign investments in the Russian economy.

In 2008 the total of USD 103.8 billion of foreign investments was received by the Russian economy, which is 14.2% below the corresponding fi gure of 2007. In terms of the percentage of the GDP the level of the foreign investments inflow reduced from 9.3% in 2007 to 6.2% in 2008.

Table STRUCTURE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2004As USD billion As percentage to the previous year Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct Total Direct 2004 40 509 9 420 333 30 756 136.4 138.9 83.0 136.2005 53 651 13 072 453 40 126 132.4 138.8 136.3 130.2006 55 109 13 678 3 182 38 249 102.7 104.6 700.0 95.2007 120 941 27 797 4 194 88 950 219.5 203.2 131.8 232.2008 103 769 27 027 1 415 75 327 85.8 97.2 33.7 84.Source: Federal State Statistics Service The total volume of the foreign investments received by the Russian economy in primarily reduced because of the decrease in other investments by USD 13.6 billion, which made USD 75.3 billion as a result of the year. The proportion of trade credits in the structure of other investments went up from 15.8% in 2007 to 21.5% in 2008.

As a result of 2008 the volume of the direct investments in the Russian economy has slightly lowered (by 2.8%) as compared with 2007. The decrease was due to the component of credits received from the foreign co-owners of organizations that reduced by 16.3% over the period under consideration. In contrast, the payments to the authorized capital stock went up by 7.4% up to USD 15.9 billion. Thus, the proportion of credits received from the foreign co-owners of the companies in the structure of direct foreign investments in the Russian federation reduced from 42.0% in 2007 to 36.2% in 2007, whereas the share of the payments to the authorized capital stock went up from 53.2% to 58.8%.

It was in the segment of portfolio investments where the most considerable relative decrease (of 66.3%) was observed, the majority of which are accounted for by the investments in shares and stocks.

As compared with the previous year, in 2008 the structure of foreign investments in the Russian economy was subject to some.

FOREIGN INVESTMENTS 100% In 2008 the 80% decrease in the foreign investments 60% received by the 40% Russian economy 20% was accompanied 0% by a considerable increase in the Direct inv estments Portfolio inv estments Other inv estments volumes of the capital outflow.

In 2008 the volume Source: Federal State Statistics Service of withdrawn capital Fig. 1 Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian economy in 19962008, as in the form of profit percentage of foreign investors transferred abroad as well as in the form of payments of interest for the use of credits and credits repayments made USD 67.95 billion, exceeding by 16.3% the figure of 2007. On the whole over 65.5% of the foreign investments received was withdrawn (48.3% in 2007).

The same as in the previous year, the highest concentration of investments in trade and industry sustained. It should be noted that as a result of 2008 the foreign investments in industry did not change considerably as compared with 2007, and the investments in trade reduced by half. A considerable reduction in the investments in trade resulted in the decrease in its proportion in the structure of foreign investments as broken by branches of industry when compared with the previous year. The distribution of foreign investments by main branches of Russian economy is represented in table 2.

The analysis of quarter-by-quarter dynamics of the foreign investments in industry testifies that the foreign investments were observed to decrease throughout the whole 2008as compared with the corresponding periods of 2007 excluding the third quarter when the growth of 58.7% was registered, which allowed the annual figures to approximate the level of 2007. Quarter by quarter foreign investments in the sphere of trade throughout the whole 2008 remained below the corresponding figures of 2007.

25000 120,0% 100,0% 80,0% 60,0% 40,0% 20,0% 0 0,0% Volume of withdrawn foreign investments, as USD mln Ratio of volume of withdrawn foreign investments to volume of received foreign investments, as percentage Source: Federal State Statistics Service I quarter I quarter I quarter I quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter - - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES Table STRUCTURE OF FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN RUSSIAN ECONOMY AS BROKEN BY BRANCHES IN 2006-Change as percentage As percentage to the As USD million on the previous year total 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 2008 2006 2007 Industry 24607 50163 49704 101.2 203.9 99.1 44.7 41.5 47.Transport and 5 297 6 703 4 861 137.9 126.5 72.5 9.6 5.5 4.communication Wholesale and retail trade; motor-vehicle and motorcycles servicing; repair 13089 47310 23905 64.0 361.4 50.5 23.8 39.1 23.of household appliances and private items Operations with real estate;

5 998 8 414 15378 230.1 140.3 182.8 10.9 7.0 14.rent and services rendering Financial activity 4 698 4 450 4 977 259.1 94.7 111.8 8.5 3.7 4.Other branches 1 420 3 901 4 944 231.8 274.7 126.7 2.5 3.2 4.Source: Federal State Statistics Service The decrease in the investments in minerals extraction of 28.7% was observed in the structure of foreign investments in industry as a result of 2008 (in 2007 there was a growth of 1.9 times). Foreign investments in processing industries went up by 6.2% (in 2007 the growth of investments in processing industries made 2.1 times). As to processing industry, the investments in foodstuffs production increased by 36.7%, in chemistry industry by 53.8%, reaching the figure of USD 4.0 billion and USD 2.5 billion, correspondingly. Foreign investments in metallurgy decreased by 4.88% in 2008 as compared with the preceding year and made USD 14.5 billion.

Quarter by quarter statistics of the foreign investments in minerals extraction and processing industries demonstrates that the latter is becoming more and more attractive.

It should be noted that quarter-by-quarter dynamics of the foreign investments in different branches of industry in 2008 as compared with the corresponding periods of 2007 were of diverse character. Thus, investments in metallurgy went up in the 1st and the 3rd quar550% 500% 450% 400% 350% 300% 250% 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 3 Foreign Investments in Industry and Trade in 20052008, as percentage to the corresponding period of the previous year I quarter I quarter I quarter I quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter FOREIGN INVESTMENTS Minerals extraction Processing industries Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 4 Infl ow of Foreign Investments in Extractive and Processing Industry in 2005-ters (by 74.6% and by 67.5%) and reduced in the 2nd and 4th quarters (by 42.3% and 33.8%).

The reduction of the foreign investments in chemistry industry was observed in the 1st and the 4th quarters (by 10.3% and 33.0%), and in the 2nd and 4th quarter they increased by 3 and 2.1 times. The interest of foreign investors in fossil fuels production increased in the second half of 2008, the increase in foreign investments in this branch being equal to 31.8% and 98.5% in the 3rd and the 4th quarters (in the 1st and the 2nd quarters the reduction of 79.0% and 48.1% observed). Such diversification was reflected in the changes in the quarter-by-quarter structure of foreign investments by branches of industry throughout 2008.

The proportion of direct investments in the industry decreased from 36.3% in 2007 to 26.6% in 2008, the share of other investments increasing from 57.3% to 71.1% over the same period.

The changes were also observed in the structure of foreign investments by kinds of economic activities in the industry. In the sphere of minerals extraction the direct investments reduced by 2.8 times down to USD 4.98 billion, which resulted in the contraction of 5,1% 19,8% 8,0% 29,2% 37,9% 3,3% IV quarter 30,4% 9,6% 22,0% 34,7% 4,2% III quarter 15,1% 37,6% 32,6% 10,4% 8,6% II quarter 2008 4,9% 16,1% 30,4% 40,0% 3,8% I quarter 20,4% 20,4% 49,8% 5,6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Fossil fuels extraction Foodstuffs production Metallurgy Chemistry industry Others Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 5 Structure of Foreign Investments in Industry As Broken by Branches in USD mln I quarter I quarter I quarter I quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter II quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter III quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter IV quarter - - RUSSIAN ECONOMY: TRENDS AND PERSPECTIVES their proportion in the total investments in this sphere from 80.1% to 40.2%. The share of other investments in extractive industries grew by 2.1 times up to USD 7.3 billion. As a result their share in the total investments in the branch of industry increased from 19.8% up to 59.0%.

In 2008 the biggest part of foreign investments in the processing industry was accounted for by other investments as well, which went up by 10.5% versus 2007 up to USD 27.8 billion, reaching the figure of 81.9% in the resulting figure for the investments in processing industry. The direct foreign investments in processing industries went up by 44.3% to USD 5.9 billion, their proportion increasing from 12.8% to 17.5%.

As a result of 2008 the biggest amount of the investments (USD 19.9 billion, 19.1% of the total volume of foreign investments received by the Russian economy over the period mentioned) was directed from the Cyprus, USD 14.9 billion (14.4%) was received from the UK and USD 14.5 billion (14.0%) from the Netherlands.

In 2008 it was the investments from Germany that grew at fastest rates, increasing by 2.1 times versus 2007. At the same time investments from Cyprus decreased by 3.9%, from France by 8.0%, from the USA by 2.3%. The investments that decreased most considerably were from Ireland by 43.9%, from the UK by 43.3%, from Luxembourg by 38.6% and from the Netherlands by 22.4%.

The differences in the investments dynamics resulted in the changes in the geographic structure of the foreign investments in the Russian economy.

The same as in 2007 the Cyprus investors were mainly interested in operations with real estate, trade, financial activity and construction, investing in these spheres 30.9%, 21.5%, 8.4% and 6.0%, correspondingly, of the total investments from Cyprus into the Russian Federation. As a result of 2007 these spheres accounted for 19.0%, 45.5%, 7.1% and 4.7%, correspondingly, of investments from Cyprus.

The entrepreneurs of the UK continued to invest in trade, though in 2008 this sphere received 2.9 times less investment than in 2007. As a result of 2008 the trade accounted for 39.1% of the total investments of the UK in the Russian Federation (64.2% in 2007). The share of processing industries in the structure of UK investments increased from 27.7% in 2007 to 31.7% in 2008.

As to the structure of investments in the Russian Federation from the Netherlands, there the decrease of the proportion of the fossil fuels extraction from 67.1% in 2007 to 33.1% in 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Netherlands USA Cyprus UK Germany France Luxemburg Other countries 2006, % 2007, % 2008, % 2006, USD mln 2007, USD mln 2008, USD mln Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 6 Geographic Structure of Foreign Investments in Russian Economy in 2006USD mln.

as percentage to the total FOREIGN INVESTMENTS 9,3% Financial activ ity 33,4% 10,9% 46,4% Trade 10,2% 17,9% 24,5% 32,5% 4,1% 2,8% 3,2% Transportation and communication 14,8% 37,8% 27,1% 3,4% Processing industries 10,0% 8,1% 6,8% 6,4% 50,4% Extractiv e industry 46,7% 29,7% 15,1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Netherlands Luxemburg Cyprus UK Switzerland Ireland France Other countries Source: Federal State Statistics Service Fig. 7 Geographic Structure of Foreign Investments As Broken By Branches of Industry in 2008 occurred. Russian power industry accounted for 14.7% of investments directed from the Netherlands in the Russian Federation in 2008.

As on the end of 2008 the accumulated foreign capital not taking into account the institutions of monetary and credit regulation, commercial and savings banks, including ruble investments recalculated in US dollars made USD 264.6 billion, which is 19.9% above the corresponding figure of the beginning of the year.

It is the Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, the UK and Germany that still hold the leading positions in the total volume of accumulated foreign investments, their share being 70.3% (72.0% in 2007). At the same time the share of the first five leading countries in the segment of direct and other investments reduced to 73.4% and 57.6% (77.0% and 67.85 in 2007), and in the structure of portfolio investments it went up to 75.3% (65.1% in 2007).

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