railway transport operation education trade trade pipelines excluding provision retail trade, transportation motor-vehicles motor-vehicles communication social services health care and 94,57,37,40 24,21,19,19,16,20 15,14,12,11,10,6 10,8,7,7,4 7,5 7,6,6,2 6,4,3,9 3,-1,-4,-5,-10,-13,-15,-20 -15,-17,---38,-2005 Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
Fig. 4 The Change in the Investment in Fixed Assets Growth Rates by kinds of Economic Activities in 2005 and 2006, as percentage to the preceding year In 2006 the investments in fixed assets growth rates deceleration down to 7.2% against 10.6% in was observed for manufacturing industries. The share of the manufacturing industries in the structure of the investments in the fixed assets throughout the economy was equal to 16.4% in 2006 against 17.6% in the preceding year. The incomes concentration remaining traditionally high within export-orientated productions and mechanisms of interindustry capital transfer being weakly developed it could have been hardly expected that the investments rates would accelerate and nature of the capital reproduction would change fundamentally. The analysis of the investments dynamics and structure demonstrates that the trend to decrease in the share of the investments in the machine-building production is characteristic for the Russian economy. The share of the enterprises producing investment goods was equal to 2.2% in 2006 against 2.7% in 2002. Under the existing age, technological and reproduction structure of the fixed assets low rates of investments in the machine-building were the factors restricting the production development rates of final and intermediate goods output. The structure of capital goods production being what it is the import that remains one of the main sources for capital renewals, production reconstruction and modernization.
Whereas the investment activity in food production as well as textile, clothing and tanning industries was determined by the increase in the domestic market demand, the metallurgical and chemistry industries were considerably influenced by the increase in demand of the external market. For instance, in 2006 the trend for anticipating growth of the investments in the metallurgical industry retrieved once again (112.8% against 2005) against the background of the decrease in the investment activity in the final metal goods production (89.7%), which lead as a result to the decrease in the final goods export.
It should be noted that against the background of high world prices for hydrocarbons low transformation and diversification of export incomes towards the investments in the production reconstruction and modernization had a negative impact on the figures of the economy growth.
O. Izryadnova production manufacture production coke production production food processing chemistry industry production production electric equipment textile and clothing production goods production finished metal goods coke and oil products equipment production transport vehicles and manufacturing industry footwear production oil products production other non-metal mineral metalurgical production metalurgical production pul and paper production machinery and equipment leather, leather goods and rubber and plastics goods woodwork and wooden goods Foreign Investments In 2006 USD 55.1 bln. of foreign investments flowed in the Russian economy, which exceeded by 2.7% bln. the corresponding figure of Table Structure of Foreign Investments in the Russian Economy As USD mln Increase as percentage to the previous year Total Direсt Portfolio Others Total Direсt Portfolio Others 2002 19 780 4 002 472 15 306 38.7 0.6 4.7 55.2003 29 699 6 781 401 22 517 50.1 69.4 -15.1 47.2004 40 509 9 420 333 30 756 36.4 38.9 - 17.0 36.2005 53 651 13 072 453 40 126 32.4 38.8 36.3 30.2006 55 109 13 678 3 182 38 249 2.7 4.6 by 7 times - 4.Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The total volume of foreign investments made to Russian economy in 2006 increased due to the growth of direct and portfolio investments. And the biggest growth at that is observed in the segment of portfolio investments, which increased up to USD 3.2 bln. 90.8% of portfolio investments are accounted for stocks and shares.
Against the background of slight growth of the foreign investments in the Russian economy a considerable increase in capital withdrawal should be mentioned. Thus, in 2006 USD 37.9 bln. was withdrawn as the incomes of foreign investors transferred abroad as well as interest rates payment for credit usage and credit repayments, which exceeds by 29.8% the figure of 2005. The most significant capital outflow was observed in the third quarter of 2006 (96.1% of the foreign investments made during this period). Over 2006 on the whole 68.7% of the foreign investments made were withdrawn (in 2005 – 54.4%). At the same time the increase in the withdrawn capital in real terms exceeds the corresponding figure of the foreign investments made to Russian economy by six fold.
The growth of direct and portfolio investments against the background of the decrease in other investments led to the changes in the structure of foreign investments to Russian economy.
The Structure of the Foreign Investments to Russian Economy over 199690% 7% 80% 6% 70% 5% 60% 4% 50% 40% 3% 30% 2% 20% 1% 10% 0% 0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Direct investments Other investments Portfolio investments Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
In 2006 the concentration of foreign investments in trade and industry sustained, though as a result of the year there was a decrease in the foreign investments in trade by 36.0% as compared with 2005. The highest foreign investments growth rates in 2006 were observed in the operations with the real estate and financial portfolio investments activity. The distribution of foreign investments with regard to the main branches of the Russian industry is presented in table 2.
Table Sectoral Make-up of the Foreign Investments in Russian Economy over 2004- As USD mln Changes as percentage to As percentage to the total the preceding year 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 2006 2004 2005 Industry 20 170 24 318 24 607 63.6 20.6 1.2 49.8 45.3 44.Transport and communication 2 033 3 840 5 297 87.7 88.9 37.9 5.0 7.2 9.Whole sale and retail trade; 13 037 20 461 13 089 24.0 56.9 - 36.0 32.2 38.1 23.motor-vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances and articles of private use service Real estate operations, renting 2 572 2 602 5 998 - 24.4 1.2 by 2.3 6.3 4.8 10.and provision of services times Financial activity 1 001 1 813 4 698 56.4 81.1 by 2.6 2.5 3.4 8.times Other industries 1 697 617 1 420 - 1.7 - 63.6 by 2.3 4.2 1.2 2.times Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The biggest growth of foreign investments (+52.5% to 2005) was fixed in fuel industry (in 2005 the decrease by 39.6% as compared with 2004 was observed). Foreign investments in manufacturing industry over the period under consideration decreased by 15.8% (in 2005 a growth of 75.7% was observed). In manufacturing industry the investments in chemistry production and metallurgy increased by more than 9.0%, reaching the figures of USD 1.6 bln. and USD 3.7 bln., correspondingly.
Sectoral Make-up of the Foreign Investments in Russian Economy in 2006 (data for 2005 are presented in parentheses) Fuel fossils extraction;
Other sectors; 41.3% 37.2% (24.7%) (55.3%) Chemicals production;
Metallurgy; 15.1% 6.4% (5.9%) (14.1%) Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
The share of the direct investments in the industry diminished from 41.8% in 2005 to 29.2% in 2006, the proportion of other investments increased over this period from 56.8% to 66.7%.
In the structure of the investments by sectors of industry the changes were also observed. In the field of minerals extraction the share of other investments increased by 2.4 times as compared with 2005 up to 50.6% (in 2005 – 32.4%). The share of direct investments in extraction, which growth is estimated as 12.5%, decreased down to 49.4% (66.8% in 2005).
The direct investments in manufacturing industry decreased as compared with 2005 by 56.8%, which led to the decrease of their share in the total investments in these branches of industry from 33.5% to 17.2%. In contrast, the share of other investments in manufacturing industry increased from 65.8% to 76.8%.
As for geographic structure, leading position in the structure of foreign investments is held by Cyprus, which is 17.95 of the total amount of the investments, made to the Russian economy over this period (9.5% in 2005), the Great Britain comes second – 12.7% of the total amount (16.0% in 2005).
Geographic Structure of Foreign Investments Made to Russian Economy in 2004-35,0% 30,0% 25,0% 20,0% 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Netherland USA Cyprus Great Britain Germany France Luxembourg Others 2004, % 2005, % 2006, % 2004, USD mln. 2005, USD mln. 2006, USD mln.
Source: Federal State Statistics Service.
During 2006 the biggest decrease in investments was fixed for the investments from Luxembourg - 57.3% as compared with 2005 (the growth in 2005 was equal to 64.2%). The investments from the Netherlands decreased by 25.9% down to USD 6.6 bln., from the Great Britain – by 18.2% down to USD 7.0 bln.
At the same time the investments from France increased by 2.1 times up to USD 3.0 bln. Cyprus increased its investments in the Russian Federation by 92.1% up to USD 9.9 bln., Germany – by 66.2% up to USD 5.bln..
The differences in the investments dynamics led to the change in the geographic structure of the foreign investments made to Russian economy. The proportion of Luxembourg decreased from 25.8% in 2005 to 10.7% in 2006, of the Netherlands – from 16.6% to 12.0%. France and Germany increased their shares from 2.7% and 5.6% to 5.5% and 9.1%, correspondingly. The share of the USA at the same time changed but negligibly, remaining at the level of 3.0%.
In 2006 the shift of sectoral priorities of the foreign investments sustained.
The investments from the Great Britain in manufacturing industries decreased from 37.0% in 2005 to 22.2% in 2006. It is the sphere of the trade that remains the preferable for the British investors, 52.1% of the total investments to the Russian Federation from the Great Britain is directed to it (38.6% in 2005), 9.1% being invested in coke and oil production.
In the structure of the investments to the Russian Federation from the Netherlands the share of minerals extraction increased from 42.7% in 2005 to 55.2% in 2006. In 2006 25.1% (5.5% in 2005) of the total amount of the investments from the Netherlands was made to transport and communication.
For Cyprus investors it is manufacturing industries that are the most attractive, they invested 39.1% of the total investments from Cyprus to the Russian Federation to it (31.4% in 2005). The share of financial activities, operations with the real estate in the structure of Cyprus investments increased from 11.0% and 10.1% in 2005 to 14.0% and 26.4% in 2006.
Accumulated Foreign Investments as broken down by Main Countries-Investors Accumulated by 01.01.2007, USD mln Changes by 01.01.2006, % Total Direct Portfolio Others Total Direct Portfolio Others USA 7 698 4 588 507 2 603 12.5 5.2 25.5 25.Germany 12 260 3 320 1 692 7 248 26.1 22.3 by 58 3.times.
According to the situation at the end of 2006 the accumulated foreign capital not taking into account the bodies of monetary and credit regulation, commercial and savings bank, including ruble investments, con as% to the total USD mln verted to US dollars, was equal to USD 142.9 bln., which exceeds the corresponding figure for 2005 by 28.7%.
As a result of 2006, in the total amount of the accumulated foreign investments, made to the Russian economy, the leading positions are still held by Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany and the Great Britain, whose share was more than 70%, similarly to 2005. At the same time the share of the leading five countries-investors in the segments of direct and portfolio investments increased up to 71.9% (70.9% in 2005) and 71.0% (57.2% in 2005). In the structure of other investments it decreased down to 71.8% (75.3% in 2005 ).
In the structure of foreign investments accumulated by the end of December 2006 other investments prevail, whose share was 49.1% (44.5% in 2005). Corresponding figure for direct investments was equal to 47.5% (53.8% in 2005).
One of the biggest investors to the Russian Federation is the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The amount of the investments of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in the Russian economy in 2006 was equal to euro 2.2 bln. Over the all years of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development presence, euro 7.5 bln. was invested in the projects fulfillment. At present the Bank allots credits for Russian projects fulfillment up to the sum of 80% of the total amount of project costs for the period up to 15 years. Besides, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is ready to invest in the Russian Fund for Middle-sized Business Development up to USD 35 mln. The World Bank also intends to continue its collaboration with Russia.
One of the main guiding lines for the new investors to come to the Russian market and for already operating investors to wish to increase the amount of the investments is the rating of the world agencies Fitch, Moody's and S&P. At the end of July 2006 Fitch agency, first among the leading world agencies, increased sovereign rating of Russia up to the level ВВВ+. At the beginning of September 2006 Standard&Poor’s rating agency also increased the Russian rating up to the level of ВВВ+. Moody's long-term rating is one position lower than Fitch and Standard&Poor’s new rating.
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