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Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2006-37.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 36.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 35.34.33.32.31.30.29.28.27.26.Between 1 and 22 March, the euros exchange rate on the international market went up by $ 0.007 (or 1.54 %), to 1.329 USD for 1 euro. Against this background, March saw a slight growth of the euro/rouble exchange rate. In the period from 1 through 23 March, the euro/rouble exchange rate went up by 0.136 roubles (0. 39 %) - from 34.54 to 34.68 roubles for 1 euro. The total turnover of trade in euro in the SELT between 1 and 23 March was about 1,388.65 million euro, the average daily turnover being at the level of 49.million euro (as compared to about 737.39 million euro, with the average daily turnover of 48.8 million euro, during the corresponding period in February). Thus, the activity of trading in foreign currencies on the Russian currency market increased noticeably by comparison with the previous month. The maximum volume of trade in the euro during the period under consideration was registered on 22 March at the level of 127.million euro, the minimum volume 58.1 million euro on 12 March.

roubles 11.01.26.01.10.02.25.02.12.03.27.03.11.04.26.04.11.05.26.05.10.06.25.06.10.07.25.07.09.08.24.08.08.09.23.09.08.10.23.10.07.11.22.11.07.12.22.12.06.01.21.01.05.02.20.02.07.03.22.03.FIGURE 8.

Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 1.1.1.1.1.Table Indices of financial markets Month November December January February March* monthly rate of inflation 0.6% 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.7% estimated, annual rate of inflation in accordance with the 7.44% 10.03% 22.42% 14.03% 8.7% tendency in given month refinancing interest rate of RF CB 11% 11% 10.5% 10.5% 10.5% average yield to maturity of OFZ, all issues (% per year) 5.97% 5.93% 6.58% turnover of GKO-OFZ market for given month (bn. roubles) 16.95 45.64 27.yield to maturity of Minfin bonds by end of month (% per year):

Tranche 5 5.38% 5.47% 5.69% 5.71% 5.6% Tranche 7 5.42% 5.41% 5.49% 5.56% 5.5% Tranche 8 5.30% 5.57% 5.63% 4.65% 4.5% yield to maturity of eurobonds by end of month (% per year):

2007 5.28% 5.04% 5.45% 5.71% 5.9% 2010 5.43% 5.70% 5.71% 5.22% 5.4% 2018 5.69% 5.64% 5.90% 5.76% 5.7% 2028 6.03% 5.96% 6.18% 6.05% 6.1% 2030 5.52% 5.50% 5.76% 5.59% 5.6% MBK- MIACR rate (% per year by end of month) on credits 7.21% 3.65% 5.24% 6.15% 3.0% for 1 day official rouble/USD exchange rate by end of month 26.3147 26.3311 26.5331 26.1599 26.official rouble/euro exchange rate by end of month 34.6775 34.6965 34.3896 34.5180 34.rise in official rouble /USD exchange rate during month (%) -1.62% 0.06% 0.77% -1.41% -0.6% rise in official rouble / euro exchange rate during month (%) 1.91% 0.05% -0.88% 0.37% 0.5% Turnover of stock market in RTS in given month (million 1175.61 1094.42 929.19 993.46 USD for shares included in list for calculating RTS index ) value of RTS-1 index by the end of month 1776.68 1921.92 1842.93 1858.14 changes of RTS-1 index during given month (%) 10.11% 8.17% -4.11% 0.83% 4.4% * D. Polevoi USD/EURO 01.01.16.01.31.01.15.02.02.03.17.03.01.04.16.04.01.05.16.05.31.05.15.06.30.06.15.07.30.07.14.08.29.08.13.09.28.09.13.10.28.10.12.11.27.11.12.12.27.12.11.01.26.01.10.02.25.02.12.03.Investments in the Real Sector of the Economy As a result of 2006 the amount of the investments in the fixed assets increased by 13.5% as compared with the previous year and was equal to RUR 4482.7 bln. or 16.8% of GDP. The fundamentally new feature of the economic growth over the period of 2003-2006 was the shift from the investment financing by enterprises and organizations own funds to the expansion of borrowed funds participation. The characteristic feature of 2006 was the overcoming of the trend for the decrease of the share of the investments in minerals extraction, which was observed since 2002. As a result of 2006 the increase in the investments in the fossil fuels extraction was equal to 25.1% against the decrease by 2.6% in the previous year. Over JanuaryFebruary 2007 the investments in the fixed assets increased by 21.2% as compared with the corresponding period of the previous year and were equal to RUR 522.1 bln.

The trend for anticipating growth of the investments in the fixed assets as compared with the dynamics of GDP has been observed from 2000 in the Russian economy. Over the period of 2000-2006 the investments in fixed assets increased by 2.16 times, GDP growing by 1.68 times. In 2006 the amount of the investments in fixed assets increased by 13.5% against 10.7% in the previous year.

17,13,12,10,10,5,2,1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ---10,-11,--14,--18,-24,-Investments in the fixed assets GDP -40 -39,Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 1. The GDP and Investments in the Fixed Assets Growth Rates in 19912006, as percentage to the preceding year However the influence of economy earnings from foreign economic activity on the economy growth rates being positive, their influence on the dynamics of the investment activity was limited by the trend for the decrease in transformation level of the gross national savings into investment expenditures. The share of gross national savings in GDP in 2003-2006 was on average equal to 33.1%, of investments in the fixed assets 16.6%.

Since 2005 the trend for the increase of the budget funds share in the investments in fixed assets financing sources has retrieved. In 2005 RUR 540.1 bln. of the investments in the fixed assets were financed by budget funds, which was equal to 20.1% of the total amount of the investments in the fixed assets throughout the economy, including 6.7% by the federal budget funds. In 2006 RUR 700.1bln of the investments in the fixed assets were financed by budget funds, including by federal budget funds RUR 242.1 bln.

Table Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets as per Financial Sources, Percentage to the Total 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005* 2006* Investments in fixed assets 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 - total including a break-down by sources of investment:

Own capital 47.7 49.4 48.0 46.2 46.8 47.7 45.1 44. of which:

profit 23.4 24.0 20.5 17.2 18.3 22.4 20.6 20.Inflow of funds 52.5 50.6 52.0 53.8 52.6 52.3 54.9 55.of which:

bank credits 2.9 4.4 4.8 5.2 7.3 6.5 8.3 8.including foreign bank 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.loans loans from other organisa- 7.2 4.9 6.0 8.6 7.3 7.3 7.4 5.tions Budget funds: 22.0 20.4 19.6 18.8 17.4 20.1 20.7 19.Federal Budget funds 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.5 5.1 6.7 7.1 6.Funds from the Subjects of 16.0 14.6 13.6 11.5 11.3 12.4 12.5 12.the Russian Federation budgets and local budgets Share of foreign invest- 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.2 6.ments in total investments in fixed assets * small enterprises and informal activity parameters excluded.

Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

The characteristic feature of 2005 and 2006 was the change in Federal budget funds vs. budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation funds ratio, allocated for the investments. The share of the budget funds, which was used for the investments in fixed assets, was 2.63% of the GDP in 2006 against 2.5% of GDP in 2005 and 2.32% of GDP in 2004, including the Federal budget funds being, respectively, 0.91% against 0.83% and 0.68%.In 2006 the amount of the public investments grew by 0.3 p.p. of the GDP in comparison with 2005.

64,61,60,70,60,50,34,33,29,40,30,4,5,5,20,10,0,2004 2005 Federal Budget Budgets of the Subjects of the Russian Federation Budgets of the other levels of administration Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 2 Structures of the Investments in the Fixed Assets Financing at the Expense of the Budget Funds in 2004-2006, as percentage to the total Fundamentally new feature of the economic growth in the period of 2003-2006 was the shift from the investments in fixed assets financed at the expense of the business and organizations own capital to the expansion of borrowed capital share. This was a graphic evidence of qualitative changes in investment development mechanism, which is orientated on investment resources flow rationalization. As a result of 2006 the share of inflow funds was 55.7% of total amount of investments in fixed assets.

In contrast to 2005 the increase in banks share of investment financing from 8.3% to 8.9% was observed in investment crediting. The trend for the increase of insurance, investment, industrial and trade companies as well as foreign investment participation in investment activity financing sustained. In 2005 net inward investments were equal to USD 1.3 bln., in 2006 USD 41.6 bln. Foreign banks credit share in investments in fixed assets financing has grown up to 1.5% against 1.0% in 2005, foreign investment ratio being 6.1% against 5.2%.

Low real value of the credit resources under the average level of profitability existing in the economy accounted for the expansion of enterprises debtors sector. Among the factors that positively affect the credits dynamics and other borrowed funds the growth of the organized forms of the population savings can be distinguished. The share of funds, directed towards share holding in construction was equal to 3.4% from the total amount of the investments in the fixed assets.

The increase in the investment activity in branches of infrastructure and the increase in demand for these branches service is the indicator of growth potential, the investment policy in this sector being orientated towards the solution of long-term problems.

Table Structure of Investments in the Fixed Assets by Types of Economic Activities 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2005* 2006* Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 10 0 Including break down by types of economic activity:

Agriculture, hunting and for- 3.0 4.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.2 4.estry Industry 40.4 40.4 38.6 38.1 38.3 36.8 40.6 41.of which Minerals extraction 18.1 19.0 16.9 15.9 14.8 13.4 15.2 17.including fossil fuels extrac- 16.7 17.5 15.5 14.4 13.4 11.8 13.5 15.tion Manufacturing industries 16.3 15.9 15.9 15.6 16.5 16.8 17.6 16.Electricity, gas and water 6.0 5.5 5.8 6.6 7 6.6 7.8 7.production and distribution Construction 6.4 5.2 5.4 4.9 3.6 3.5 2.9 3.Whole sale and retail trade; 2.7 2.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.9 2.8 2.motor-vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances and articles of private use service Transportation 18.5 19.2 15.1 17.5 17.6 20.4 22.1 21.Communication 2.7 3 3.4 4.8 5.6 5.5 6.7 5.Financial activity 0.8 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.Operations with real estate, 15.2 14.7 18.1 17.7 17.6 16.6 11.5 10.renting, provision of services Education 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8 2.State administration, military 1.5 1.5 2 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.safety security; compulsory social security Health care and provision of 2.6 2.4 2 2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.social services Provision of utilities, social 3.9 3.5 3.8 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.6 2.and personal services * excluding small enterprises and informal activity parameters.

Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

In 2006 the trend for the growth of investments in the fixed assets in transportation and trade, as well as in the kinds of activities, orientated to the provision of social services education, health care - sustained.

Characteristic feature of the investment process in the transportation was the change in the structure of investments by kinds of economic activity. The dynamic growth of the pipeline transportation was supported by the increase of its share in investment expenses up to 39.9% of the total amount of the investments into transportation (34.8% in 2005). In 2006 the reduction of the scale of the investments in railway transport and communication, for which the period of the restoration growth of 1999-2005 was characterized by the growth of the investment activity, was observed.

It should be noted that against the background of the steady growth of the demand for trade services redistribution of the investments by kinds of activities is proceeding in the environment of retail trade and motor vehicles trade material and technical basis expansion, the increase in investments into which was equal, respectively, to 149.7 and 128.0% against the level of 2005.

45,39,30,22,22,523,21,19,18,17,6,-2,-3,-2005 Source: Federal State Statistics Service.

Fig. 3. Change in the Investments in Fixed Assets Growth Rates by Kinds of Services Provided in 2005 and 2006, as percentage to the preceding year The share of the investments in the fixed assets in goods production by kinds of activities in 2006, exceeded the level of the previous year by 4.3 p.p., which was due mainly to the growth acceleration of the investments in industry and agriculture. The increase in agriculture investments in 2006 was equal to 40.6%, and its share in investments in fixed assets structure increased up to 4.0%, increase in comparison with the preceding period being 0.8 p.p.

It was fuel and energy production that traditionally had the most significant impact on the dynamics and structure of the investments into the industry. The characteristic feature of 20042005 was unstable dynamics of investment activity in fuel industry, which is accounted for to a great extent by the factors of the market situation. The proportion of the fuel fossils production in 2005 was 11.8% of the total investment volume against 15.5% in 2002. The decrease of the impact of the fuel industry in the investment process was initiated by the decrease of oil production industry in the total amount of the investments from 12.7% in 2001 to 7.0% in 2004 and 5.3% in 2005.

The characteristic feature of 2006 was the overcoming of the trend for the decrease of the share of the investments in minerals extraction, which was observed since 2002. As a result of 2006 the increase in the investments in the fossil fuels extraction was equal to 25.1% against the decrease by 2.6% in 2005 in the preceding year.

The growth of 2.2% against the decrease by 0.4% was observed in 2006 in electricity, gas and water production and distribution. The overcoming of the decrease in the investment activity in this kind of economic activity was accounted for by the increase in investments in power industry by 8.3% in comparison with the previous year. The dynamics of gas production and redistribution was considerably influenced by the priority shifts in investment activity towards pipeline net development. Consequently, as a result of 2006 the decrease in investment amount in gaseous fuel production and distribution was equal to 38.1% against the growth of 17.4% in 2005.

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