A significant growth in investment in fuel industry (by 65 per cent) resulted in the changes in the regional structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy. For instance, while the amount of investment in the city of Moscow persisted at the level registered in 2003, only in the first 9 months of 2004 foreign investment in the Tyumen oblast made US $ 4.7 billion, what was 3.1 times above the figures registered in the respective period of 2003. The respective indicator in the Khanty – Mansi AO is estimated to be at US $ 3.9 billion, what is 2.7 times above the level observed in 2003. On the whole, in 2004 foreign investment in the city of St. Petersburg increased by 41.6 per cent as compared with the figures registered in 2003 (up to US $ 985.1 million), while foreign investment in the Primorski krai grew by 44 per cent (up to US $ 65 million).
As concerns the geographical structure of foreign investment made in the Russian economy in 2004, Luxemburg held the leading positions, this country accounted for 20.8 per cent of the total amount of investment made in the Russian economy in 2004, while the UK investment is second at 17.3 per cent of the total amount of foreign investment.
Because of the changes the RF Goskomstat made to its presentation of information in 2005, in this cell are presented the data on foreign investment as concerns organizations, whose core type of activities is “wholesale and retail trade; repairs of motorized vehicles, motorcycles, household appliances, and items for personal use.” In this cell there are presented the data on foreign investment as concerns organizations, whose core type of activities is “operations with respect to real estate, lease, and rendering of services.” In this cell there are presented the data on foreign investment as concerns organizations engaged in financial activities.
30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% the Netherlands USA Cyprus UK Germany France Luxemburg Other countries 2002, % 2003, % 2004, % 2002, US $ mil. 2003, US $ mil 2004, US $ mil Source: RF Goskomstat.
Fig. 2. Geographical structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s industry in 2002 through In 2004, the Luxemburg investors increased their investment in the Russian economy 3.8 times, investment from the Netherlands grew 2.9 times. In 2004, the most significant decline in investment in the RF was registered with respect to investors from Germany. Over the period under observation, German investment made US $ 1.7 billion (as compared with US $ 4.3 billion registered in the preceding year). French investment in the Russian economy has also declined to US $ 2.3 billion (from US $ 3.7 billion in 2003). The differences in the dynamics of investment from different countries resulted in significant changes in the geographical structure of investment in the Russian economy. For instance, the specific weight of German investment declined from 14.5 per cent in 2003 to 4.3 per cent in 2004.
At the same time, the specific weight of French investment decreased from 12.5 per cent to 5.8 per cent, while the Netherlands and Luxemburg increased their shares in the total amount of foreign investment from 5.9 per cent and 7.5 per cent to 12.6 per cent and 20.8 per cent respectively.
In 2004, the sectoral preferences of foreign investors from different countries also shifted. Thus, while in 2003 investors from Luxemburg invested in trade and public catering (60.1 per cent of the total investment from Luxemburg to the RF in 2003) and metallurgy (35.2 per cent), in 2004 these investors preferred fuel industry (45.2 per cent of the total investment from Luxemburg to the RF in 2004), communications enterprises (9.3 per cent), and the sphere of trade and public catering (35.4 per cent).
In 2004, entrepreneurs from UK significantly diminished their investment in the general commercial activities relating to market servicing. At the same time, they increased their investment in the sphere of trade and public catering (from 39.6 per cent in 2003 to 53.4 per cent in 2004) and metallurgy (from 10.3 per cent to 19.8 per cent). In 2004, the share of investment in communications is estimated to make 6 per cent of the total amount of UK investment (the data about UK investment in communications in 2003 are unavailable).
For investors from France, the priority sector was fuel industry, where they invested US $ 2.7 billion, or 72.5 per cent of the total French investment in the RF in 2003. In 2004, the share of investment in trade and public catering in the French investment in the Russian economy increased to 55 per cent.
US $ mil.
in % of the total Financial activities 11,4% 37,0% 19,3% Trade 22,9% 28,6% 9,8% 36,6% Transport and 38,6% 23,7% 36,3% communications 1,6% Manufacturing industries 16,5% 17,5% 10,8% 31,2% Extracting industries 33,2% 38,4% 13,0% 7,9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% the Netherlands Luxemburg Cyprus UK Germany USA France Other countries Source: RF Goskomstat.
Fig. 3. The geographical structure of foreign investment as broken down by the sectors of the Russian economy in As at the end of December of 2004, the foreign capital accumulated in the Russian economy made US $ 82 billion, what was by 43.8 per cent above the level registered on January 1 of 2004.
In 2004, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Luxemburg, Germany, and UK were the leaders in terms of the total amount of accumulated foreign investment. Their share made 67.9 per cent (57.1 per cent in 2003). The top five investing countries also accounted for 64.5 per cent of direct foreign investment (51.4 per cent in 2003), 48.9 per cent of portfolio investment (73.0 per cent in 2003), and 71.3 per cent of “other” investment (61.4 per cent in 2003).
“Other” investment dominated In the structure of foreign investment accumulated by the end of December of 2004 (the share of such investment made 54.0 per cent (as on January 1, 2004, this indicator was estimated to be at 51.7 per cent). The respective indicator characterizing foreign direct investment made 44.1 per cent (45.8 per cent as on January 1, 2004).
According to the ranking of investment attractiveness (FDI Confidence Index) made public in October of 2004 by the consulting company Kearney15, in 2004 Russia was at the 11th place (Russia was 8th in 2003, 17th in 2002, and 32nd in 2001).
On November 18, 2004, the international ranking agency Fitch increased the Russia’s sovereign ranking up to the investment level. On October 8, 2003, the agency Moody’s also granted Russia the investment ranking. At the end of November of 2004, the ranking agency Standard & Poors also announced that it was ready to increase the Russia’s sovereign ranking to the investment level. In the beginning of 2005, the ranking agency Standard & Poors also stated that it raised the Russia’s sovereign ranking to the investment level. Therefore, at present all three largest international ranking agencies granted Russia the rankings of investment level.
Positive assessments of the business prospects in Russia on the part of foreign entrepreneurs and high credit rankings granted to Russia by the leading ranking agencies will have a positive impact on the investment climate in Russia in the future and will facilitate an inflow of foreign capital in the Russian economy.
This ranking characterizes the investment attractiveness of countries reflecting not the current amount of foreign investment, but only the attitudes of investors and their intentions.
Structure of accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries.
Accumulated by 01.01.2005 US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2004 г., in % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other USA 6 624 4 310 418 1 896 25,1 0,3 10,2 times 97,47,9 times Germany 9 324 2 550 8 6 766 - 8,6 0,3 - 7,less France 3 874 433 0,3 3 441 - 18,9 30,8 3 times 7,8 times UK 8 673 1 602 142 6 929 - 43,4 32,7 61,20,1% Cyprus 13 790 10 094 585 3 111 70,6 2 times 6,9 24,The Netherlands 11 996 8 805 43 3 148 3,4 times 3,1 times 8,6 times 4,1 times Luxemburg 11 880 263 1 11 616 3,4 times 1,2 times 0,0 3,6 times Other countries 10,0 0,1 14,7 - 26,15 836 8 090 396 7 Total 81 997 36 147 1 593 44 257 43,8 38,3 11,5 50,Source: RF Goskomstat.
E. M. Ilyukhina Regions: attraction of investment in 2004.
This section focuses on the key specifics of attraction of investment in fixed assets and foreign investments across the subjects of the Russian Federation and federal okrugs in 2004 in comparison with the respective indicators registered in 2003.
Table Regions leading in terms of their share in the total amount of investment in fixed assets in 2003 through 2004 (shares of regions in the national amount of investment, in %) Federation subjects Share, 2004 Federation subjects Share, City of Moscow 12,30 City of Moscow 12,Khanty – Mansi AO - Yugra 6,99 Khanty – Mansi AO - Yugra 8,Yamal – Nenets AO 6,07 Yamal – Nenets AO 7,Moscow oblast 5,26 City of St. Petersburg 4,City of St. Petersburg 4,01 Moscow oblast 4,Krasnodar krai 3,43 Krasnodar krai 3,Republic of Tatarstan 3,35 Republic of Tatarstan 3,Sverdlovsk oblast 2,69 Republic of Bashkortostan 2,Leningrad oblast 2,59 Sverdlovsk oblast 2,Republic of Bashkortostan 2,41 Samara oblast 2,Total top 10 49,11 Total top 10 50,Note: hereinafter the source of the data for year 2003 is the collection of statistical data “Regiony Rossii. Sotsialnoekonomicheskiye pokazateli. 2004 (Regions of Russia. Social and economic indicators. 2004).” The data presented in this collection significantly differ from the current statistical reporting published by Rosstat. The source of the data for year is the collection of statistical data “Sotsialno- ekonomicheskoye polozheniye Rossiyskoi Federatsii. Yanvar 2005 (Social and economic situation in the Russian Federation. January of 2005).” Comparing the indicators demonstrated by the regions leading in terms of the national amount of investment in fixed assets in 2003 and 2004 (see Table 1), there may be in the first turn noted the decline in the share of investment in fixed assets of raw material oriented Khanty – Mansi and Yamal – Nenets autonomous okrugs, which are primarily engaged in oil extraction. Yet another most important specific feature of year 2004 as compared with the indicators observed in 2003 is a sharp increase of the shares of the Moscow and Leningrad oblasts, which can be somewhat conventionally dubbed the peripheries of the two largest Russian agglomerations – the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg. As concerns the Moscow oblast, there the growth in investment may be to a certain degree explained by the fact that there had started the withdrawal of industrial enterprises from the city of Moscow.
The growth of the shares of the Moscow and Leningrad oblasts has also contributed in the increase in the shares of the Central and North West federal okrugs respectively in investment in fixed assets (see Table 2). At the same time, in the Central federal okrug the growth of shares in the national amount of investment was a specific feature in the majority of the RF subjects (11 out of 18), while in the North West federal okrug it was true only with respect to 4 regions out of 11 RF subjects. A significant decline in the shares of the Khanty – Mansi and Yamal – Nenets autonomous okrugs has resulted in the decrease in the share of the Ural federal okrug (although the shares of the Sverdlovsk and Chelyabinsk oblasts have increased). It draws attention that the situation in the Southern federal okrug is unfavorable in terms of attraction of investments. In this okrug, similarly to the North West and Ural federal okrugs, the decline in the amounts of investment occurred in the majority of RF subjects included in this okrug. In spite of the rather modest indicators of the growth in investment and the shares of investment observed in the Privolzhski federal okrug, the situation there may be considered as the most favorable, since in this okrug only in one region (out of 15) there took place a decrease in investment in fixed assets.
Table Indicators characterizing the attraction of investment across federal okrugs in 2003 through Share in investment in fixed assets, Amount of investment in in % fixed assets in 2004 in % Federal okrugs of the figures registered in 2004 Central federal okrug 26,66 25,27 107,North West federal okrug 12,80 12,42 104,Southern federal okrug 9,23 9,49 99,Privolzhski federal okrug 16,62 16,33 105,Ural federal okrug 18,92 21,27 98,Siberian federal okrug 9,19 8,92 107,Far East federal okrug 6,58 6,30 113,Russian Federation 100,00 100,00 110,Table Regions leading in terms of the absolute amounts of attracted foreign investment in through 2004 (shares of regions in the total attracted foreign investment, in %) Federation subjects Share, 2004 Federation subjects Share, City of Moscow 37,91 City of Moscow 46,Khanty – Mansi AO - Yugra 9,88 Khanty – Mansi AO - Yugra 10,Sakhalin oblast 9,69 Sakhalin oblast 7,Moscow oblast 4,51 Omsk oblast 5,Krasnoyarsk krai 4,00 Sverdlovsk oblast 4,Vologda oblast 2,74 Moscow oblast 4,Lipetsk oblast 2,72 Chelyabinsk oblast 3,Samara oblast 2,71 City of St. Petersburg 2,Omsk oblast 2,68 Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) 2,Tyumen oblast 2,66 Samara oblast 1,Total top 10 79,51 Total top 10 88,As usual, the distribution of foreign investment across regions was characterized by extreme volatility (see Table 3). As concerns the regions leading in terms of attraction of foreign investment, it draws attention that the share of the city of Moscow in the attraction of foreign investment has sharply declined; there are also noticeable changes in the ratios between the values of this indicator occurring across other subjects of the Russian Federation. Yet another traditional feature is the significant differences in the lists of the regions leading in terms of amounts of investment in fixed assets and foreign investment. However, the common feature is that the Central federal maintains its leading position and the worst situation still persists in the Southern federal okrug. The Republics included in the composition of this okrug traditionally encounter problems as concerns the attraction of foreign investment: in 2004 only Adygeya and Northern Osetiya could attract foreign investment, while in 2003 foreign investment flowed only in Adygeya. A similar situation exists as concerns the Republics of the Southern Siberia and the majority of autonomous okrugs.
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