2005 3,92% 5,14% 6,26% 8,43% 10,0% 2007 5,30% 5,86% 5,39% 6,33% 6,4% 2010 6,76% 7,01% 6,66% 7,03% 7,0% 2018 7,60% 7,61% 7,21% 7,35% 7,1% 2028 8,22% 8,20% 7,83% 7,86% 7,6% 2030 7,23% 7,24% 6,84% 6,93% 6,6% MBK-MIACR rate (% per year as of end of month) by credits 9,86% 3,13% 2,93% 1,26% 1,0% for 1 day official RUR/USD exchange rate as of end of month 29,2447 29,2171 28,7655 28,2367 27,(RUR/USD) official RUR/EUR exchange rate as of end of month 35,1463 35,9896 36,6472 37,4165 37,(RUR/EUR) increase of official RUR/USD exchange rate per month (%) 0,49% -0,09% -1,55% -1,84% -1,5% increase of official RUR/EUR exchange rate per month (%) 0,27% 2,40% 1,83% 2,10% 0,8% stock exchange turnover in RTS per month (USD mln, for 277,15 262,27 470,87 351,53 shares entered into the list for RTS index computation) RTS-1 index value at the end of month 584,65 635,57 663,67 633,34 Changing of RTS-1 index at the end of month (%) 8,21% 8,71% 4,42% -4,57% -3,5% * Estimate D. Polevoi USD/EURO 01.02.02.03.01.04.01.05.31.05.30.06.30.07.29.08.28.09.28.10.184.108.40.206.26.01.25.02.Investment in the real sector of the economy In January through February of 2005, the amounts of investment in fixed assets from all sources of financing made Rub. 315.6 billion, and increased by 7.4 per cent in comparison with a 13.3 per cent growth registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The amount of works carried out in the framework of “construction” type of activity in January through February of 2005 made Rub. 87.billion, or 105.5 per cent of the level registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The slowdown of the rates of business activity in construction and dynamics of investment is a specific feature of the Russian economy and is determined by the seasonal factors. The amount of concluded contracts and orders provides building organizations with work for 2.5 months, what permits them to positively evaluate the perspectives of development of the investment activities this year.
Rosstat has published the results of investment activities in 2004. In 2004, investment in fixed assets made Rub. 2729.8 billion and increased by 10.9 per cent. the growth in the revenues of the economy, household savings, and increasing activity of the banking sector had a positive impact on the nature of investment activities.
In 2004, the share of own funds in the total amount of investment in fixed assets made 46.8 per cent, what corresponds to the level registered in year 2000, when there was observed the peak of investment demand in the whole period of the recovery growth. The changes in the proportions of attracted funds were determined by the outpacing rates of growth in bank credits and borrowings of other organizations occurring at the background of a moderate participation of the budget sources of financing. The decline in the share of budgetary financial resources in the financing of investment expenditures by 2.2 p. p. occurred at the background of changes in the ratio between the federal budget and the budgets of RF subjects.
Mobilization of resources on both the domestic and foreign market created incentives for acceleration of the rates of growth in credits to the economy. In 2004, the share of banks in the crediting of investment increased to 7.3 per cent as compared with 6.4 per cent registered in 2003 and 2.9 per cent in year 2000. At the background of high rates of economic growth, there was observed the persistence of positive dynamics of increase in foreign direct investment in the Russian economy. By the end of 2004, the increment of foreign investment made 39.1 per cent, while the share of foreign investment in the total amount of investment in the national economy made 5.0 per cent.
Table Structure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing in per cent of the total 2002 2003 2004* Investment in fixed assets, total 100 100 Including 1. Own funds 48,0 45,2 46,of which Profits 20,5 17,8 18,2. Borrowings 52,0 54,8 53,of which Bank credits 4,8 6,4 7,Including credits of foreign banks 0,5 1,2 1,Borrowings form other organizations 6,0 6,8 7, Budget resources: 19,6 19,6 17, Federal budget 6,0 6,7 5,Budgets of RF subjects and local budgets 13,6 12,1 11,Foreign investment in the total amount of investment in fixed assets 4,1 3,9 5,Source: Rosstat The investment activities in the real sector of the economy were carried out at the background of changes in the sectoral structure of investment in fixed assets. The total amount and dynamics of investment were primarily determined by natural monopolies and oil industry. In the case it is taken into account that the share of transport, communications, and the fuel complex in the total amount of investment in the national economy makes 45 per cent, it becomes apparent that exactly the business activity of these industries has the most significant impact on the dynamics and structure of investment demand. In 2004, the share of investment in fixed assets in the sector of production of goods persisted at about the level registered in the preceding year. These developments were determined by a rather moderate growth in investment in industry. As compared with the figures observed in the preceding year, the share of investment in industry increased by 0.6 p. p. and made 43.1 per cent of the total amount of investment in fixed assets.
In 2004, the structural shifts in the investment in industry were significantly affected by the outpacing rates of increase in the business activity across the manufacturing industries. In 2004, the share of investment in manufacturing industries made 40.2 per cent of investment in industry at large and was by 1.9 p. p. above the level registered in the preceding year.
4,3,2,1,0,-1,-2,-3,Fig. 1. Changes in the structure of investment in fixed assets as broken down by the types of economic activities in industry in 2003 through 2004, in percentage points The share of extraction and processing of fuel and energy resources in the total amount of investment in industry makes 42 per cent; these types of economic activities maintain their dominating positions in the structure of investment. At the same time, as concerns these types of economic activities investment in oil extraction here makes more than half of the total amount of investment. Taking into account the persistence of traditionally high concentration of profits in the export oriented industries sector and the lack of mechanisms of inter-sectoral flow of capitals and accumulation of gross savings for the development of competitive components of the economy it may be hardly expected that radical changes would occur in the nature of the reproduction of fixed capital. However, in 2003 through the oil sector of the economy was characterized by rather moderate dynamics of investment activity.
By the end of 2004, there was registered a decline in the share of the fuel complex in the total amount of investment in industry by 1.9 p. p. as compared with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year.
In 2004, metallurgy was among the leaders in terms of investment activity. In the situation of a significant growth in external and domestic prices of metal products, the leading companies have launched large scale projects and almost doubled the amounts of their investment in fixed assets. In 2004, the share of investment in metallurgical production and production of finished metal products made 10.5 per cent of the total amount of investment in industry and was by 3.0 p. p. above the level registered in the preceding year.
Mechanical engineering was among the industries characterized by low investment activity. In 2004, the share of mechanical engineering branches in the total amount of investment in industry made equipment resources resources equipment Production of machinery and and optical equipment Extraction of fuel and energy Extraction of non-fuel and energy Production of vehicles and transport Production of electrical, electronic, Extraction of mineral resources and water Wood working Coke and oil production Chemical production Food products electrical power, natural gas, Metallurgical production Manufacturing production Production and distribution of Pulp and paper production less than 6 per cent. Due to the fact that the level of wear and tear of fixed assets in mechanical engineering exceeds the average value of this indicator observed in industry at large, while the rates of modernization of the production capacities are low, mechanical engineering lags behind the major branches consuming machinery and equipment in terms of technologies.
In the situation, where persist the disproportions of movement of fixed assets and investment expenditures, the domestic market of capital goods is significantly affected by the dynamic growth in import of machinery and equipment. In the case of adjustment for the seasonal factors, the decline of the share of imports in the amount of consumption of the products of mechanical engineering began in the 4th quarter of 1998 and ended in the 3rd quarter of 1999. The surge of demand for imported equipment was observed in year 2000; since that time the trend towards outpacing rates of growth in import of machinery and equipment in comparison with the rates of development of domestic mechanical engineering has acquired the stable character and corresponded with the dynamics of investment activity. In 2004, import of machinery and equipment increased 1.45 times, while the increase in output of machinery, equipment, and vehicles made 19.5 per cent and 11.7 per cent respectively.
--1994 1998 1999 1993 1996 1992 1995 1997 2000 2001 --Mechanical engineering Investment in fixed assets Import of machinery and equipmen Fig. 2. The rates of growth in investment in fixed assets, production, and import of capital goods in 1992 through 2004, in per cent of the figures registered in the preceding year In 2004, a decline in investment activity was registered in production of food goods, as well as in textile and clothing industries. The aggregate share of investment in these industries in the total amount of investment in industry made 7.6 per cent in 2004, what was by 1.0 p. p. below the level observed in the preceding year.
The perspectives of the further growth of the Russian economy significantly depend on the intensity of changes in the structure of investment in favor of the industries of final demand oriented towards the domestic market.
O. I. Izryadnova Foreign investment in the Russian economy In 2004, the total amount of foreign investment in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy (not taking into account the monetary and credit regulating authorities, commercial and savings banks, and including Ruble denominated investment in US $ equivalent made US $ 40.51 billion.
Table The structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy US $ mil. In % of the figures registered in the preceding year Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other 2000 10 958 4 429 145 6 384 14,6 4,0 4,7 times more 21,2001 14 258 3 980 451 9 827 30,1 - 10,1 3,1 times more 53,2002 19 780 4 002 472 15 306 38,7 0,6 4,7 55,2003 29 699 6 781 401 22 517 50,1 69,4 - 15,1 47,2004 40 509 9 420 333 30 756 36,4 38,9 - 17,0 36,Source: RF Goskomstat In 2004, the structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy practically did not change. The share of “other” investment remained at the level of 75.8 per cent, while the share of direct investment made 23.3 per cent. The specific weight of other investment in the aggregate foreign investment made in the RF in 2004 declined from 1.4 per cent to 0.8 per cent.
For the second year running, the trend towards the excess of foreign investment inflowing in the Russian economy over the Russia’s investment abroad persists. In 2004, the investment in the Russian economy exceeded the Russian investment abroad by US $ 6.74 billion. In 2003, this indicator was estimated to be at US $ 6.44 billion.
Fig. 1. Foreign investment in Russia and Russia’s investment abroad in 1999 through Similarly to the situation observed in the preceding year, in 2004 the concentration of foreign investment in two spheres of the Russian economy: industry and trade and public catering persisted. At the same time, this year the highest rates of growth in foreign investment were observed in the sphere of finances, credit, insurance, and industry. The distribution of foreign investment across the key sectors of the Russian economy is presented in Table 2.
Similarly to the situation observed in 2003, the structure of foreign investment in industry was characterized by a higher share of direct investment (34.7 per cent in 2004) as compared with the respective structure of the aggregate amount of foreign investment in the Russian economy. In spite of the fact that in 2004 foreign direct investment grew 2 times, while the increase in “other” investment made 47.4 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in 2003, “other” investment, which in 2003 in absolute terms increased by US $ 4.2 billion (up to US $ 13 billion) primarily accounted for the bulk of the growth in investment in production (over this period, the increase in foreign direct investment in industry made 3.6 per cent).
US $ million Table The sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russian economy in 2002 through Changes in % of the figures US $ mil. registered in the preceding In % of the total year 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 2004 2002 2003 Industry 7 332 12 330 20 170 29,5 68,2 63,6 37,1 41,5 49,Transport and communications 610 1 083 2 033 - 51,5 77,5 87,7 3,1 3,6 5,Trade and public catering 8 800 10 03712 66,4 19,5 24,0 44,5 35,4 32,Commercial activities relating to 2,1 355 3 403 2 57213 71,1 - 24,4 6,9 11,5 6,market servicing times 4,Finance, credit, insurance, pensions 130 640 1 00114 2,4 56,4 0,7 2,2 2,times Other sectors 1 553 1 727 1 697 37,7 11,2 - 1,7 7,9 5,8 4,Source: RF Goskomstat In 2004, there were observed significant changes in the structure of foreign investment across a number of industries. Thus, in 2004 the specific weight of direct investment in the structure of foreign investment in chemistry increased to 31.1 per cent, while in 2003 it made only 19.1 per cent. A similar situation was observed in metallurgy; the share of foreign direct investment in this industry grew more than 6 times and made 22.4 per cent.
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