Futures market. In March, the investors’ activity on the futures market of RTS (FORTS) slightly increased as compared to February indicators. Over the period 1 - 24 March, the total turnover of the market of futures and options in RTS made up about Rb 28.3 bn (119.9 thou. deals, 3.83 mln contracts) vs Rb 21.37 bn in February (108.28 thou. deals, 2.58 contracts).
The greatest demand among participants was observed for futures: the volume of trade with them over the period under consideration amounted to Rb 25.17 bn (112.42 thou. deals and 3.01 mln contracts). Options were by far less in demand – the volume of trade with them amounted about Rb 3.bn (7.48 thou. deals and 378.9 thou. contracts). Maximum volume of trade on the futures market made up Rb 2.45 bn (March 2), minimum – Rb 714.26 mln and was observed on March 5.
Market for corporate bonds In March, a gradual reduction of traded instruments’ quotations had been observed on the market for corporate bonds. Nonetheless, on occasion, dynamics within a week bounced back and force. In the course of the first week the high liquidity level in the banking sector of economy contributed to growth of quotations on the secondary market of corporate and regional bonds, as well as the successful primary placement of bonds of the bank Russky Standart and Severo-Zapadny Telecom, where the demand considerably surpassed the supply. Moreover, the week was marked by entering into the market of four blue chips – the three issues of RZhD and FSK bonds, as well as Transamshholding and NGK Itera papers. On the other hand, the situation on the market for external borrowings (the Russian eurobonds’ prices decreased), the currency market (stabilization of the ruble to dollar rate), as well as the U.S. market of government bonds made a restraining influence on the market of ruble instruments.
Within next trade week, despite ruble to dollar strengthening, quotations continued to decline. Sellers became dominating on the market: the wish to fix positions met price falling. At the same time, by the end of the week the negative dynamics of basic assets and Russian eurobonds did not affect the corporate debt market. Obviously, prior to the session of the US FRS (Federal Reserve System), investors took up wait and see attitude.
During the third week the dynamics of the debt market was, on the whole, negative character. Basically, the investors’ attention was drawn to the situation on the external debt market and what is happening on the domestic currency market. Despite ruble to dollar strengthening, the exchange rate dynamics could not neutralize the negative effect of eurobonds falling. By the end of the week the volume of supply began to decline and quotations consolidated at the levels reached. This was caused by investors’ expectations concerned with the US FRS session. During the last trade week, against the Ukos Sibneft Tatneft GMK LUKoil Russia Russia NorNikel RAO UES Mosenergo Sberbank of Rostelekom Surgutneftegas growth of dollar rate and in absence of positive signals, sales again dominated on the corporate bond market.
In the period 1 - 24 March, the price index of corporate bonds traded on MICEX10, declined by 0.points (–0.4%), while the index of ten most liquid bonds of the corporate sector – by 0.82 points (– 0.7%). For the same period, the total turnover of the section of corporate bonds of MICEX amounted to Rb 18.83 bn, with the average daily turnover of about Rb 1.176 bn (Rb 15.8 bn, with the average daily turnover of around Rb 927.54 mln in February). Therefore, the volume of trade with corporate bonds of Russian companies slightly increased as compared to February indicators.
Dynamics of corporate bond indices 122.ZETBI-Corp ZETBI-Corp188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.104.Fig. The external factors of dynamics of the Russian stock exchange market During March, the situation was, on the whole, favorable on the world oil market: by mid-month, oil quotations reached their peak values. Practically, prices were not anyhow affected by the decision of OPEC summit on raising official quotas for oil production, which, apparently could, in fact, be explained by absence of possibility for the cartel to further increase of the production.
In March, the situation on the international stock exchange markets noticeably deteriorated, which basically was determined by influence of inflationary expectations in the USA on the dynamics of world financial markets (see Table 1). Following the results of the month, most part of the world's stock exchange indicators showed decline.
Early in the month, the U.S. stock exchange market showed better results, which can be explained by favorable macroeconomic situation, positive corporate events concerned with the financial results of the companies in the 4th quarter of 2004, and, as before, still high growth rates of the economy.
Negative influence on the behavior of investors was also made by growth of oil prices, which reached next peak values.
However, later, the stock market dynamics changed: an increase in the yield of the U.S. Treasury bonds and rising in oil prices led to decline of indices. Generally, the dynamics of American financial markets was determined by growth of inflationary expectations against the growth of prices for oil and raw materials. This, in turn, enhances the possibility of GRS transition to policies of more aggressive raising the interest rates. Also negative were macroeconomic news. For example, the U.S. budget defiWith regard to levels of February 24.
02.02.19.02.10.03.26.03.13.04.29.04.20.05.07.06.24.06.12.07.28.07.13.08.31.08.16.09.04.10.20.10.05.11.24.11.10.12.29.12.24.01.09.02.28.02.17.03.cit in February hit a record indicator of $113.9 bn vs $96.7 bn in January, though the growth was forecasted to $100 bn. Growth was also fixed in the balance of trade deficit.
140% Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Composite Индекс РТС 130% 120% 110% 100% 90% 80% Fig. 6.
On the whole, the impact of external factors (in March) on the Russian stock exchange market considerably strengthened. Though rising in oil prices supported the quotations of Russian companies, the investors’ expectations of a session of the US FRS, which took place on March 22, negatively affected the dynamics of the Russian market during the second half of the month, since prior to the meeting foreign investors tried to close opened positions on the emerging markets.
Corporate news JSC LUKoil At the end of March an official information appeared that the company LUKOIL-Finland (member of lUKoil Group) signed a purchase and sale agreement for shares of Finnish companies Oy Teboil Ab и Suomen Petrooli Oy, and consequently secured sole control over the two companies. The amount of the transaction was USD 160 million. The concentration was approved by the European Commission.
Oy Teboil Ab and Suomen Petrooli Oy are mainly engaged in the operation of 289 retail petrol service stations and 132 retail diesel fuel outlets, wholesale of refined oil products as well as production and sale of lubricants. The transaction particularly allows LUKOIL to enter into the Finnish end-customers market of the refined petroleum products. The Company intends to benefit from supplies to Finland of EN-590, low sulfur (10 ppm) environment friendly diesel fuel, that is produced by Perm refinery new hydrocracking facility. Facilities of Oy Teboil Ab and Suomen Petrooli Oy in the Finnish fuel oil market will also allow LUKOIL to expect an increase of the fuel oil and gas oil export from its Russian refineries.
JSC Slavneft Early in March, the Board of Directors of JSC Slavneft had passed a resolution to hold an extraordinary meeting of shareholders with the only question on the agenda - “Appointing a president of the JSC Slavneft”. The president now in power of Slavneft will have served his full term in office in May 2005. The meeting will be held in the form of absentee voting with the date of expiration of reception of bulletins on May 12, 2005. The list of shareholders for the participation in the meeting will be made according to the register data as of March 14, 2005. Also, the company’s Board of Directors 02.02.19.02.08.03.24.03.09.04.27.04.13.05.31.05.16.06.02.07.20.07.05.08.23.08.08.09.24.09.12.10.220.127.116.11.01.12.17.12.04.01.20.01.07.02.23.02.10.03.approved the list of candidatures to the Board and the Revision Committee of the JSC Slavneft at the annual general meeting of stockholders.
RAO UES Russia Early in March RAO UES Russia, in accordance with the Federal law "On Joint-Stock Companies" and Charter of the Company, completed reception of shareholders’ proposals on issues of the agenda of the annual general Meeting of shareholders candidatures to the Board of Directors.
The Board of Directors of RAO UES Russia will consider these proposals on non-resident meeting of March 4. 2005. Shareholders offered to include in the agenda of the annual meeting the following issues:
- On approval of the annual report, annual financial statements, including profit and loss statement (profit and loss accounts) of the Company, and also distribution of profits, including payments (announcement) of dividends, and losses of the company following the results of the financial year;
- On the size, dates and form of payment of annual dividends upon the shares of the Company;
- On election of members of the board of directors;
- On election of members of revision commission of the Company;
- On approval of the auditor of the Company.
Dynamics of the world stock exchange indices Correction for a Year-to-date corData as of March 23 2005 Value month (%)11 rection (%) 661.95 -4.10% 8.95% RTS (Russia) 10456.02 -2.72% -2.55% Dow Jones Industrial Average (USA) 1990.22 -3.00% -7.52% NASDAQ Composite (USA) 1172.53 -2.31% -2.46% S&P 500 (USA) 4910.40 -1.24% 1.31% FTSE 100 (Great Britain) 4317.20 0.30% 0.60% DAX-30 (Germany) 4032.41 1.38% 4.58% CAC-40 (France) 5926.00 0.68% 2.73% Swiss Market (Switzerland) 11739.12 1.80% 1.92% Nikkei-225 (Japan) 26248.00 -7.69% 2.04% Bovespa (Brazil) 12852.81 -6.08% -1.31% IPC (Mexico) 1922.79 2.56% 7.07% IPSA (Chile) 2145.10 -0.35% 3.62% Straits Times (Singapore) 968.81 -2.06% 8.18% Seoul Composite (South Korea) 24439.26 -10.66% -3.95% ISE National-100 (Turkey) Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Free 547.415 -5.20% 0.96% I d Forex market.
In March, on the domestic forex market it had been observed a reduction of ruble to dollar rate.
However, dynamics within a month bounced back and forth. Early in the month, slowing down a tendency towards the dollar's fall against ruble had been observed on the Russian forex market. This was caused by stabilization of the world FOREX market, as well as decision of the European Central Bank on dowmload revision of rates of the EU economic growth for 2005. At the same time, the major fac With reference to the level of February 24.
tor for ruble strengthening remains the record high oil prices, supporting high forex supply on the market. Though, later, ruble continued strengthening, which lasted practically up to the end of the month.
From 1 to 24 March, the dollar fell by 0.06 of ruble (-0.23%) and reached RUR/USD 27.6381. The total volume of trade on USD in SELT over the period 1 - 23 March accounted for $23.74 bn, with average daily turnover of about $1.58 bn ($2.69 bn in February), which markedly less than relevant indicator of February. The maximum volume of trade on USD over this period had been fixed, on March 11, as $3.01 bn, minimum – $786 mln, on March 3.
In March this year, ruble liquidity in the banking sector slightly grew, compared with February indicators: in March, the average balance in the corresponding accounts of credit organizations in the Bank of Russia amounted to some Rb 295.6 bn vs Rb 270.02 bn in February.
Dynamics of the Official USD/RUR and EUR/RUR Exchange Rates in 2004-40.Official USD/RUR exchange rate 39.Official EUR/RUR exchange rate 18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199.Fig. 7.
Summarizing the results of the month, positions of the European currency somewhat deteriorate on the world FOREX market. Within the first week, Euro/Dollar rate consolidated at 1.32 $/Euro against growing in quick pace prices for oil and minerals. Further, the growth of euro was observed, which went up to maximum value for the last two months and reached 1.3473 $/Euro, that was determined by growth of the US trade deficit and concerns about possibility of raising interest rates by European CB because of a threat of increase of inflation. By the end of the month the euro to dollar rate was corrected prior to the meeting of finance ministers of the euro zone, where an issue of softening demands for the amount of budget deficit of individual European countries had been discussed.
From 1 to 24 March, the euro fell by $0.0266 (–2.01%) at the world market to USD/EUR 1.2978. In this period, slight weakening of euro against ruble had been observed. For the period 1 to 24 March, the euro/ruble ratio decreased by Rb 0.5749 (–1.57%) from 36.72 to 36.14. From 1 to 23 March, the total volume of trade on EUR in SELT reached some EUR 126.44 mln, with an average daily indicator of about EUR 8.43 mln (some EUR 7.49 in February). The above figure is somewhat higher than that of February. Maximum volume of trade on EUR over this period was fixed on March 23 as EUR 13.94 mln, minimum – EUR 6.29 mln, on March 21.
roubles 03.02.18.02.04.03.19.03.03.04.18.04.03.05.18.05.02.06.17.06.02.07.17.07.01.08.16.08.31.08.15.09.30.09.15.10.188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.29.12.13.01.28.01.12.02.27.02.14.03.Dynamics of the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate on the International Markets 220.127.116.11.1.1.Fig. 8.
Financial markets’ indicators Month August September October November December* monthly inflation 0,4% 0,4% 1,1% 1,1% 1,2% yearly estimated inflation on per month basis 4,91% 4,91% 14,03% 14,03% 15,4% the Russian central bank refinancing rate 13% 13% 13% 13% 13% (average for all issues) yield to maturity of OFZ (% per year) 6,64% 7,13% 6,15% 7,97% 7,2% GKO-OFZ market turnover per month (bn rubles) 20,61 33,59 30,57 18,07 35,yields to maturity of OVVZ by the end of month (% per year):
tranche 5 5,87% 5,84% 5,28% 5,35% 5,0% tranche 6 4,25% 4,25% 3,80% 3,93% 4,2% tranche 7 6,90% 6,86% 6,27% 6,38% 5,9% tranche 8 4,87% 4,76% 4,28% 4,46% 4,5% yields to maturity of eurobonds as of end of month (% per year):
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