Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 52 | 53 || 55 | 56 |   ...   | 82 |

1 Analogically to the strategy for any game we can make strategy for this game. We have to say that if the World is deterministic (i.e. every vertex of type world has only one successor) then the strategy for this game is a path (a tree without branches). In this case the paths in the tree of this game are exactly the strategies for this game. This was used from TD2 in order to try all strategies.

Max-Sum Algorithm For every vertex of the tree of this game we can calculate the best possible success (this is our expectation for success, if we play with the best strategy from that vertex on).

1. The best possible success for the leaves will be 1, 0 and 1/2 for the states s_victory, s_loss and s_draw respectively.

234 Mathematical Foundations of AI 2. If the vertex is of type AI, then its best possible success will be the maximum from the best possible successes of its successors.

3. If the vertex is of type world, then its best possible success will be the sum Possibility(i).

BestPossibleSuccess(i). Here i runs through all successors of this vertex.

The algorithm for calculating the best possible success can also be used to calculate the best strategy in this game (the best strategy can be more than one). This algorithm looks like the Min-Max algorithm, which we use in chess. Anyway, this is different algorithm, to which we will refer as Max-Sum algorithm. The difference is essential because in the chess we assume that we play against someone who will do the worst thing to us (remark 4). Anyway, in the arbitrary world we cannot assume that the world is against us. For example, when you go to work you go first to the parking lot in order to take your car. If your car is stolen, then you go to the bus stop in order to take the bus. If every time you were presumed the worst case, then you would go directly to the bus stop.

New Trivial Decisions Now we can calculate the best possible success for any game and we will give the next trivial decision (TD3), which will do the best in every game. This means that the success of TD3 for one world will be equal to its best possible success.

TD3 will be the program which plays at random for long time enough. In this time TD3 collects statistical information for the tree of this game and builds inside its memory this tree together with the values of all possibilities. After that time TD3 starts playing by the use of Max-Sum algorithm.

TD3 gives the perfect decision in any world but TD3 is impossible because we cannot say when enough statistical information is selected. Anyway, possible is something which is a little bit worse. For every > 0 we will make TD4, which for every world will make success on a distance no more than from the best possible.

TD4 will be this program which simultaneously collects statistical information for the tree of this game and in the same time plays by the use of Max-Sum algorithm on the base of statistics, which is collected up to the current moment. In order to collect statistics TD4 makes experiments which contradict to the recommendations of MaxSum algorithm. Such experiments are made rarely enough to have success on a distance not bigger than from the best possible success.

We can choose the value of to be as small as we want. Anyway, the price for the small value of is the longer time for education (because of rare experiments). We will call the parameter "courage". Here we receive a surprising conclusion that if AI is more cowardly it is closer to perfection (this is true only in the case of infinite life).

TD4 is a decision for our definition of AI because it is only on distance to perfection unlike the people who are much farther from perfection. We have to mention that in some sense TD4 is not as trivial as TD2, because TDrepresents awful combinatory explosion in the execution time (number of small steps) and in the memory size.

Anyway, we said that we will not care about the efficiency of AI for the moment. On the other hand, there is one additional problem, which is present in both TD2 and TD4, and which makes them both useless. This is the problem of the combinatory explosion of the educational time. Imagine that you are playing chess at random against deterministic partner. How long will you need to make accidental victory Or in case your partner is not deterministic. How long will you need to play all possible game's strategies and try each one several times in order to collect statistical information on how your partner reacts in every case Finite Life In some sense TD2 and TD4 are extremely stupid because they need extremely long time for education. Really, educational time and level of intelligence are two different parameters of the mind and if one of them is better then this can be at the expense of the other. For example, a human being needs about a year to learn to walk, which is much worse in comparison to most animals. Some of the greatest scientists had bad results in school, which can be interpreted as a fact that they advanced slower than the ordinary people.

Therefore, the educational time is important and it has to be limited in order to make our definition useful. This will be done by changing the life length from infinite to finite. We will assume that the length of the life is 100 games.

Each game has maximum 1000 steps, which means that the life length is not bigger than 10,000 steps. Now the XII-th International Conference "Knowledge - Dialogue - Solution" success of the life will not be the limit of the Success function but the value of this function for the first games.

After this we can look for program which makes a good success in an arbitrary world, but this is not a good idea because the arbitrary world is too unpredictable. Human beings use the assumption that the world is simple and that is why they cope very well in a more simple environment and they are totally confused if the environment is too complicated. Therefore, we have to restrict the complexity of the world and give bigger importance to the more simple worlds. For this restriction we will use Kolmogorov Complexity [5]. The parameter which restricts the complexity of the world will be the level of intelligence of AI.

Kolmogorov Complexity First we need a definition of program which calculates the functions World and View. For this we will use the same definition of TM as for the program which was our AI. There will be some small differences: The alphabet of the Turing Machine of the world (TM_W) will be {} (the only service symbol will be ). Also, TM_W will input the row d, d, d,... and output the row v, v, v,.... At the beginning TM_W will start with tape on 1 2 3 1 2 which d is at the head position and the rest is. At the end of the first big step TM_W will output v and input d.

1 1 F will be set of 5-tuples which is a subset to P P {Left, Right}. This means that F is not a function but a relation (because it will represent multy-valued function). We will assume that s 5-tupleF whose first two elements are s and (this makes the reasons for hanging with one less). The 5-tuples in F whose third element is p will be called output 5-tuples. The fourth element of output 5-tuples has to be letter from (this is not necessary but sufficient condition in order TM_W to output only letters from ). We will allow nondeterministic behavior only for output 5-tuples. This means that if two different 5-tuples have the same first and second elements then they both have to be output 5-tuples. There will be no two 5-tuples which differ only at the fifth element (we cannot have a choice between two nondeterministic 5-tuples which output the same letter - look again at remark 3). It will be more interesting if we assume that nondeterministic 5-tuples have additional parameter which shows the possibility for each of them to be chosen. Nevertheless, we will assume that this possibility is distributed equally and that we do not have such additional parameter.

According to this definition, the internal states of the world will be the states of the tape of the TM_W. If we want to have worlds without fatal errors we have to clean the tape of TM_W after each game (after printing any final letter). Nevertheless, we will not do this because the absence of fatal errors was important when we had infinite life and when we counted on that sooner or later all errors will be compensated. For real AI is better to assume some connection between games. Otherwise AI will not remember what was done in the last game or it will remember it but it will not know whether this was in the last game or in some other game from the previous ones.

Another question is what we will do with TM_W which hangs. We do not want to exclude these programs from our definition (at least because we cannot check this characteristic). That is why we will assume that if one TM_W makes more than 800 small steps without making a big step then we will interrupt it with output "draw". This means that it will do the next small step in the same way as if the 5-tuple executed at this moment had third element p and fourth element "draw". Also, if one TM_W makes 1000 big steps without outputting any final symbol then the output of the next big step will be "draw". We need this in order to keep the games finite, which is important in order to keep the life finite (the life is 100 games).

We will define the size of TM_W as the number of internal states plus the level of indefiniteness (this is the minimal number of nondeterministic 5-tuples, which have to be deleted from F in order to make it deterministic or this is the number of all nondeterministic 5-tuples minus the number of different groups of nondeterministic 5-tuples).

So, we will restrict the set of possible worlds to those generated by Turing Machine whose size is not bigger than 20. The maximum size of the TM_W will be the level of intelligence of AI. The simpler worlds will be more important because they are generated from more than one TM_W and that is why we will count their result more than once.

Remark 4: It looks like that two Turing machines (the world and AI) play against each other. Anyway, this is wrong because the world does not care about AI and it dose not play against AI.

236 Mathematical Foundations of AI Final Definition of AI Now everything is fixed. We have finite lives, which are exactly 100 games. We had selected the success function that will evaluate these lives. Also, we made a finite set of worlds which consist of the worlds generated from the TM_W with size not bigger than 20. Now we can define AI as this program which will make the best average success in the selected worlds. Such program exists and it will be the next trivial decision (TD5).

The number of all strategies for playing 100 consecutive games is finite. The number of selected worlds is also finite. We can calculate the expected success of any strategy in any world. The average success of a strategy will be the arithmetical mean from its expected success in any world. (The calculation of the expected success of a strategy in a world is easy if the world is deterministic. In this case, we will have simply to play 100 games with this strategy in this world. In the opposite case, if the world is nondeterministic then we have to use Max-Sum algorithm, which is theoretically possible, but in practice it is a combinatory explosion. Nevertheless, even if the worlds were only deterministic, we would have combinatory explosion again from the number of worlds and from the number of strategies.) Hence, TD5 will be this program which calculates and plays the best strategy (this which average success is biggest). Such program is easy to be written but it is very difficult to wait until it makes its first step. The situation with the perfect chess playing program is analogical. (It plays chess by calculating all possible moves.) This program can be written very easy but the time until the end of the universe will be not enough for it to make its first move.

It will be too restrictive if we define AI as the best program (such as TD5 or such as any other program equivalent to TD5). It will be better if we say that AI is a program whose average success is not more than 10% from the best (from TD5). Such definition is theoretically possible, but practically inconvenient. The reason for this is the fact that the value of the average success of TD5 can be theoretically calculated, but in practice this is absolutely impossible. So, if we select such definition we will not be able to check it for a concrete program.

Final definition: AI will be a program which makes more than 70% average success in the selected set of worlds.

Assumption 1: Here we assume that the average success of TD5 is about 80%. If this conjecture is true then there exists a program which satisfies the definition (at least TD5 do). If the average success of TD5 is smaller than 70% then there is no such a program (of course, in such case we can change this parameter and make it smaller than 70%).

The advantage of this definition of AI is that we can check it for a concrete program. Of course, we cannot calculate the average success for any program due to the combinatory explosion, but we can calculate it approximately by the methods of the statistics. For this, we will select at random N worlds (world is TM_W with size not bigger than 20) and we will play 100 consecutive games in every world. If the world is deterministic then this will give us the expected success of our program in this world. If it is not deterministic then we will play at random in this world. This will give us statistically good evaluation of the expected success because the possibility to be extremely lucky in 100 games is very small (so is the possibility to be extremely unlucky). If N (the number of the tested worlds) is big then the statistical result will be close to the average success of our program.

If | {} | = 5 (which is the minimum - remark 2) then the number of deterministic TM_W with 20 states is 200 on power of 100. If we take the number of nondeterministic TM_W with 19 states and level of indefiniteness one (which means with two nondeterministic 5-tuples) then this number is many times smaller than 200 on power of 100. In order to use the method of statistics we have to calculate how many times this number is smaller.

Otherwise we will use wrong correlation between deterministic and nondeterministic TM_W. Anyway, such wrong correlation will make an unessential change in the definition of AI.

Pages:     | 1 |   ...   | 52 | 53 || 55 | 56 |   ...   | 82 |

2011 www.dissers.ru -

, .
, , , , 1-2 .