Accumulated by 01.01.2004, US $ mil. Change to 01.01.2003, % Total Direct Portfolio Other Total Direct Portfolio Other USA 5296 4297 41 958 -4,1 1,8 -39,7 -22,Germany 10204 2542 383 7279 25,3 48,3 -0,3 20,France 4776 331 0,1 4445 57,5 9,2 0,0 62,UK 7220 2828 107 4285 42,9 29,1 -16,4 56,Cyprus 8085 5037 547 2501 43,7 28,3 79,3 79,The Netherlands 3575 2796 5 774 25,4 16,6 -76,2 79,Other countries 17858 8300 345,9 9212 40,7 48,2 -39,0 41,Total 57014 26131 1429 29454 32,8 28,4 -3,0 39,Source: RF Goskomstat.
At the background of growing investment from other countries, in 2003 Swiss investment declined making US $ 1.1 billion (-20.8 per cent as compared with the figures registered in 2002), while the amount of investment from the USA practically did not change and also made US $ 1.1 billion. Last year, the most significant growth (3.1 times up to US $ 3.7 billion) was registered with respect to investment from France.
The investment from UK, Japan, and Cyprus increased 2 times (up to US $ 4.6 billion), 2.3 times (up to US $ 1 billion), and by 80 per cent (up to US $ 4.2 billion) respectively. In 2003, Germany remained the leader as concerns the amount of invested capital, its investment made US $ 4 billion (+ 7.8 per cent as compared with the level registered in 2002).
The priority sectors for both German and British investors were trade and public catering, where they invested US $ 2.5 billion (or 59 per cent of the aggregate investment from Germany) and US $ 1.8 billion (39.per cent of the aggregate investment from UK) as compared to 76.6 per cent and 47.2 per cent respectively registered in 2002. The German and British investment in industry were estimated to make 24.5 per cent and 26.7 per cent of the aggregate investment from these countries in the Russian economy made in 2003.
The major part of capitals flowing in the Russia’s economy from France (85 per cent), Japan (96,1 per cent), and the Netherlands (72.5 per cent) were invested in industry.
The dynamics observed on the investment market indicate that the interest of foreign investors in Russia is growing, what permits to hope that the amounts of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy will increase this year.
E. M. Ilyukhina The Real Sector: Factors and Trends The acceleration of the rates of economic growth registered in the beginning of this year was determined by the persistence of trends formed across base sectors in 2003. In January and February of 2004, the increase in output of base sectors of economy made 8.3 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. The dynamic development of industry (108.7 per cent), construction (113.5 per cent), and retail trade (110.3 per cent) had the dominating impact on the macroeconomic situation.
The major structural shifts in the real sector of the economy were determined by changes in domestic and external demand. The favorable business situation persisting on world markets still created incentives for growth in output of export oriented branches of fuel industry, ferrous metallurgy, forestry complex, and chemistry. In January and February of 2004, the increase in output of the export oriented sector of economy made 7.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year. It should be noted that in the beginning of 2004 there were registered more moderate dynamics of development of the raw material complex as compared with the rates of growth in output of industry at large and production of final demand products, what is an evidence of the growing role of domestic demand as a factor of economic growth.
As concerns the formation of the dynamics and structure of domestic demand, in the second six months of 2003 it was still most significantly affected by industries of the investment complex. In January and February of 2004, the increase in output of the investment complex made 18.8 per cent in comparison with 2.3 per cent registered in the respective period of 2003 as the output of mechanical engineering and construction materials industry increased by 19.8 per cent and 11.9 per cent respectively. The expansion of demand for investment goods and services had a cumulative effect on the nature of development of related sectors and industries. In comparison to the figures registered in January and February of 2003, output of ferrous metallurgy, chemistry, and forestry complex grew by 8.3 per cent, 10.7 per cent, and 8.7 per cent respectively. A characteristic feature of development of these industries was increasing specific weight of construction materials produced for domestic consumption in the structure of output, as well as growing production of export goods at the background of positive shifts in the world price situation.
The state of investment industries is the major technological factor of settlement of urgent problems of reconstruction and modernization of production on the new technical basis. However, in the course of analysis of the trends in the development of mechanical engineering over the last two years there were noted the following phenomena. First, import of machinery and equipment is growing at a rate outpacing the dynamics demonstrated by domestic mechanical engineering. The growing role of imported machinery and equipment is caused by both insufficient scale of domestic production, and poor competitiveness of many types of technical means in terms of their “price – quality” ratio. Second, the high rates of growth in output of machinery and equipment was primarily facilitated by expanding demand for products of railroad mechanical engineering, instrument making, communications industry at the background of the permanent overproduction crisis in the automotive manufacture. Third, in the situation of growing export revenues of the economy there was observed a contraction of demand for domestic machinery and equipment on the part of the fuel industry.
After the switch to the model of investment development, the conflict between the structure of the sector and the dynamic processes of changes in demand aggravated. Although in the period from 1999 till 2003 the increase in the investment in mechanical engineering made almost 40 per cent in comparison with the level registered in 1998, this circumstance had no significant impact on the technical and economic characteristics of the fixed assets of the industry. The persistence of a long term trend towards downfall of output of machine tool manufacturing was a factor behind the law rates of renewal of fixed assets in mechanical engineering at large. As the average rate of renewal of fixed assets in the industry has persisted at 0.8 per cent over the last three years, the wear and tear was by 2 p. p. above the average level registered in the industry on the whole. Mechanical engineering is in the catastrophic need of skilled labor. Even an increase in the average wages and salaries did not entail higher attractiveness of this branch of industry on the labor market. In the period from 1998 till 2002, the number of employed personnel decreased by almost 8 per cent. The outpacing rates of growth in wages and salaries in comparison with labor productivity entailed the increase in the share of labor remuneration expenditures in the structure of production costs from 15.3 per cent in 2000 to 18.8 per cent in 2002 and 20.1 per cent in 2003. As a result, these developments strengthened the trend towards a decrease in profitability levels from 14.0 per cent in 2000 to 9.8 per cent in 2003. Therefore, in the situation of intensive growth in investment demand, the standing of mechanical engineering in the structure of the Russian economy do not seem to be good in the near term outlook.
---2002 2003 Figure 1. Changes in the dynamics of output across industrial production complexes in January and February of 2001 through 2004, in % of the preceding year.
15 --10 Share of import of food products in retail trade Share of import of nonfood goods Food industry Light industry Figure 2. Changes in the dynamics of output of light and food industries and the share of imports in commodity resources of the consumer market in 2001 through 2003, in % In the beginning of the year, a positive development was the acceleration of the rates of growth in the complex of consumer branches up to 6 per cent as compared with 3 per cent registered in the respective period of 2003. At the same time, an analysis of the post-crisis development of industry reveals that the lack of serious qualitative shifts in the technologh and structure of production, the complex of branches manufacturing consumer goods will not be able to support high rates of growth over a long time. The narrowness of the material and production base on the one hand, and lower competitive power of domestic products in com Raw materials complex Industry Consumer complex Investment complex Rates of growth in industries Share in commodity resources 2001/ 2002/ 2003/ parison with imports at the given exchange rate, on the other hand, result in expansion of niches for imported goods. According to the estimates presented by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, in January and February of 2004 the import of consumer goods increased approximately 1.1 times, while output of food industry grew by 6.9 per cent and production of light industry declined by 2.7 per cent. While in 2003 the share of domestic products in the structure of the food commodity group on the consumer market remained at about 66 per cent, almost 54 per cent of the turnover of retail trade with nonfood goods were formed by imported products.
An analysis of development of the Russian economy in the period from 1999 till 2003 reveals that the specific feature of recovery economic growth was the more important role played by domestic demand. In this connection, the prospects of further growth to a considerable extent depend on the intensity of transformation of the structure of national economy in favor of branches manufacturing final demand goods. Facilitation of this transformation requires to coordinate decision making in the spheres of budget, tax, tariff, customs, and monetary policies. The reform of the tax system and the budget process should create incentives for diversification of the structure of the economy both by increasing investment attractiveness of manufacturing industries, and at the expense of equalization of efficiency via redistribution of the fiscal burden among the sectors of the economy.
O. Izryadnova Oil and natural gas sector The price situation on the world oil markets determined the development of the oil and natural gas sector of the Russian economy in 2003 and the first months of 2004. Due to the fact that production of oil in Iraq decreased and OPEC member countries had in place the limitations on oil extraction, the world oil prices were at an exceptionally high level. In 2003 and in January through February of 2004, the average price of the oil basket of OPEC member countries was above the upper target price threshold (US $ 22 to US $ 28 per barrel) set by the organization. The average price of Russian Urals oil was close to US $ 28 per barrel at the end of 2003 and in the beginning of 2004 (see Table 1).
Table World oil prices in 1999 through 2004, US $ per barrel 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 January February Brent, UK 17,97 28,50 24,44 25,02 28,83 31,23 30,Urals, Russia 17,30 26,63 22,97 23,73 27,04 28,88 27,OPEC oil basket 17,47 27,60 23,12 24,34 28,13 30,26 29,Source: OECD International Energy Agency.
The development of the oil and natural gas sector of the economy in 2003 and the first months of was characterized by a persisting trend towards an increase in extraction of oil, oil products, and natural gas (see Table 2). In 2003, the volume of oil output, including gas condensate, exceeded the level registered in 1992 for the first time in the recent years and reached 421.4 million metric tons, while the increase in oil extraction in comparison with the figures registered in the respective period of the preceding year made 11.per cent (the record high in the post-reform period). An increase in extraction of natural gas first registered in 2002 continued making 3.4 per cent by the end of 2003. There was observed a certain increase in investment activity, especially in the natural gas sector: in 2003, the volume of oil production drilling grew by 2.7 per cent as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year, while natural gas production drilling increased by 58.6 per cent. At the same time, due to a certain decline in the volume of drilling observed last year, the commissioning of new oil wells was down by 5.0 per cent in 2003. The decline in the volumes of oil surveying drilling continued (oil drilling decreased by 10.7 per cent in comparison with the figures registered last year), what may be explained by sufficient levels of available reserves, while natural gas surveying drilling increased (by 31.2 per cent in comparison with the figures observed in the preceding year). The output of oil products refined with the use of modern processing technologies increased by 13.1 per cent, while the degree of processing grew from 69.6 per cent in 2002 to 70.3 per cent in 2003. The share of high octane gasoline in the total amount of motor gasoline increased from 49.4 per cent in 2002 to 52.0 per cent in 2003.
Table Oil, oil products, and natural gas output in 1999 through 2004, in % of the preceding year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 January February Oil 100,3 105,9 107,7 108,7 111,1 111,Gas condensate 104,7 103,8 106,7 112,8 108,7 114,Primary oil processing 102,9 102,7 103,2 103,3 102,7 101,Motor gasoline 102,2 103,6 100,6 104,9 101,2 100,Diesel fuel 104,2 104,9 102,0 104,7 102,0 103,Furnace fuel oil 94,8 98,3 104,2 107,1 100,3 94,Natural gas, cub. m. 99,7 98,5 99,2 101,9 103,4 102,billion Oil gas, cub. m. billion 103,2 102,5 105,0 110,5 119,3 111,Source: RF Goskomstat.
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