According to the data published by the RF Goskomstat, in 2003, investment in fixed assets increased by 112.5 per cent and made Rub. 2183.3 billion. Due to the exceptionally favorable combination of factors of high business activity of domestic business and the price situation on the world market of raw materials, the share of gross savings made 28.5 per cent of GDP in 2003. The growth in the revenues of the economy facilitated by positive changes in the business situation on the world market guaranteed the prompt repayment and servicing of the foreign public debt and enabled the state to meet its social obligations. For the first time since the start of reforms, there was registered a net inflow of capital in the private sector. There was observed the recovery of the population confidence in the domestic banking system. At the same time, the growth in earnings and profitability of the economy facilitated an increase in the asymmetry of savings and investment. In the period from 2000 till 2003, the share of investment in fixed assets in GDP remained on the average at 16.5 per cent, what made about a half of savings.
The growth in earnings of enterprises and organizations in the economy, household savings, and growing activity of the banking sector have positively affected the nature of development and permitted to overcome the decline in investment activities formed in 2001 through 2002. The principally new moment of economic growth was the shift from financing of investment in fixed assets at the expense of own funds of enterprises and organizations to the expansion of attraction of borrowings. This is a convincing illustration of quantitative changes in the mechanism of investment development oriented towards the rationalization of flows of investment resources. In 2003, the share of own funds in the structure of the total amount of investment in fixed assets made 45.6 per cent as compared with 47.7 per cent registered in year 2000, when there was observed the peak of investment demand registered in the whole period of recovery growth. The changes in proportions of borrowings was determined by the outpacing rates of growth in bank credits and funds borrowed from other organizations in comparison with budget sources of financing. The decrease in the share of budget resources in financing of investment expenditures by 1.2 p. p. occurred at the background of changes in proportions of the federal budget and the budgets of RF subjects. It should be noted that while over the few last years the gradual decrease in the share of budget resources in financing of investment was accompanied by the increase in the share of funds provided by RF subjects, in 2003, on the contrary, exactly expenditures of the federal budget significantly affected the dynamics of investment activity.
The improvement of efficiency of economic activities was accompanied by the rationalization of flows and formation of additional sources of investment resources. Mobilization of resources both on the domestic and external markets created incentives for acceleration of growth in credits extended to the economy. The amount of loans granted by credit organizations to enterprises, banks, and individuals, including credits extended to foreign countries made Rub. 2910.2 billion as on January 1, 2004 as compared with Rub. 2028.billion registered in 2002. At the same time, the amount of resources redistributed via bank credits to nonfinancial enterprises reached 8.5 per cent of GDP as compared with 4.1 per cent of GDP observed in 2002. In 2003, the share of banks in crediting of investment increased to 5.3 per cent in comparison with 4.8 per cent in 2002 and 2.9 per cent in 2000.
Table Structure of investment in fixed assets across sources of financing, in % of the total 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003*) Investment in fixed assets, total 100 100 100 100 100 Including the sources of financing:
Bank credits 4,8 4,2 2,9 4,4 4,8 5, Including credits of foreign banks 0,6 0,9 0,5 0, Borrowings from other organizations 4,3 5,6 7,2 4,9 6,0 9, Budget resources: 19,1 17,0 22,0 20,4 19,6 18,Federal budget 6,5 6,4 6,0 5,8 6,0 6,Budgets of RF subjects and local budgets 12,6 10,6 16,0 14,6 13,6 11,Foreign investment in the total amount of investment in fixed assets 3,5 6,6 4,7 4,5 4,1 5,*) with the exception of small businesses and parameters of informal activities Source: RF Goskomstat Among the factors, which had determined the growing role played by banks and borrowings from other organizations, there may be singled out de-dollarization of cash household savings and decrease in the net outflow of capital. The diminishing amounts of foreign exchange held by households and conversion of forex denominated holdings in Rubles was accompanied by a growth in amount of deposits with banking structures. The net inflow of funds to time deposits and banks debentures made about 5.6 per cent of GDP.
The low real cost of credit resources at the average level of profitability formed in the economy has determined the expansion of the group of borrowing enterprises oriented towards the domestic market. The reduction of the refinancing rate by the Bank of Russia from 25 per cent in March of 2002 to 18 per cent in February and 16 per cent in June of 2003, as well as the increase in the share of medium and long term resources accumulated by the banking system have increased the attractiveness of the monetary market. At the same time, in the situation of economic growth it became apparent that the investment management is not coordinated with the dynamic processes of restructuring underway in the Russia’s economy. The lack of investment financial institutions, underdevelopment of the stock market, and instability of the legal sphere complicates the process of attraction of credits. For all practical purposes, no mechanisms enabling the intersectoral flow of capitals have been formed in the economy, what complicates the investment operations at the level of enterprises, sectors of the economy, and regions.
O. Izryadnova Foreign investment in the Russia's economy In 2003, the RF investment sphere was characterized by growing business activity facilitated by an improvement in the investment climate and stable growth in the Russia’s economy, and positive assessments of business prospects in Russia on the part of foreign entrepreneurs and ranking agencies. According to the FDI Confidence Index published by the consulting company Kearny12 in September of 2003, in 2003 Russia was ranked 8th (in 2002 it was 17th, in 2001 – 32nd). The international ranking agency Moody's increased the ranking of the RF by two grades at once (from speculative Ba2 up to the investment level Ваа313) in the early October of 2003. At present, ranking agencies Fitch and Standard & Poor's rank Russia one (- ВВ+) and two (ВВ) positions below the investment level respectively.
As on January 1, 2004, the accumulated foreign capital in the Russia’s economy, including the investment from CIS member countries, made about US $ 57 billion, what was by 33.5 per cent above the level registered in 2002. The total amount of foreign investment in the non-financial sector of the Russian economy (not taking into account the monetary and credit regulating authorities, commercial and savings banks, and including Ruble denominated investment in US $ equivalent made US $ 29.7 billion in 2003. For the first time in the few last years, the amount of investment in the Russia’s economy exceeded Russian investment abroad.
Foreign investment in Russia and Russia’s investment abroad in 1999 through 1999 2000 2001 2002 Invested in RF RF investment abroad Source: RF Goskomstat A favorable factor of investment activity in the Russian Federation was that the rates of growth in foreign direct investment outpaced the respective indicator of aggregate foreign investment, what resulted in an increase in the specific weight of direct investment in the total investment. Over the last few years, foreign direct investment practically has not been growing and even declined in 2001.
The ranking characterizes investment attractiveness of countries reflecting not the current amounts of direct investment, but only perceptions and intentions of investors.
Ranking of Russian forex denominated bonds, Russian Ruble denominated bonds, and all Eurobonds in circulation.
Investment rankings according to the Moody's scale start with Ваa3 and with BBB- according to the scale offered by Standard & Poor's and Fitch.
Table The structure of foreign investment in the Russia's economy US $ mil. In % of the preceding year In % of total Total Direct Portf. Other Total Direct Portf. Other Direct Portf. Other 1998 11 773 3 361 191 8 221 - 4,2 - 37,0 -72,0 30,9 43,4 5,5 51,6,2 times 1999 9 560 4 260 31 5 269 - 18,8 26,7 - 35,9 44,6 0,3 55,less 4,7 times 2000 10 958 4 429 145 6 384 14,6 4,0 21,2 40,4 1,3 58,more 3,1 times 2001 14 258 3 980 451 9 827 30,1 - 10,1 53,9 27,9 3,2 68,more 2002 19 780 4 002 472 15 306 38,7 0,6 4,7 55,8 20,2 2,4 77,2003 29 699 6 781 401 22 517 50,5 69,4 - 15,0 47,1 22,8 1,4 75,Source: RF Goskomstat.
The major share of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in 2003, similarly to previous years, consisted of “other” investment formed primarily at the expense of credits of international financial organizations. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is the largest non-state creditor of Russia. In 2003, EBRD investment in the Russia’s economy amounted to Euro 1.1 billion, what made 29.per cent of the total EBRD investment in 2003. In 2002, EBRD investment in Russia was assessed at Euro 1.29 billion. Taking into account the fact that the bulk of EBRD credits is denominated in US $, the US Dollar depreciation observed in 2003 resulted in a decline in the evaluation of the bank’s amount of investment by about 20 per cent (in prices of 2002 the amount of credits EBRD extended to Russia makes Euro 1.billion). The accumulated amount of EBRD financing of its Russian projects is estimated to be Euro 5.2 billion, or 22.8 per cent of the bank’s aggregate investment.
In 2003, the sectoral structure of foreign investment was characterized by a growth in investment in the production sphere, where there was registered a slight increase in absolute terms (about US $ 5 billion). The investment in general commercial activities relating to market servicing increased by more than US $ 2 billion.
Table Sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Russia’s economy in 2000 through 2003.
Change in comparison with US $ mil. In % of the total preceding year, % 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 2003 2001 2002 Industry 5 662 7 332 12 330 19,9 29,5 68,2 39,7 37,1 41,Transport and communica1 259 610 1 083 - 35,3 - 51,5 77,5 8,8 3,1 3,tions Trade and public catering 5 290 8 800 10 516 170,7 66,4 19,5 37,1 44,5 35,Commercial activities relat792 1 355 3 403 192,3 71,1 151,1 5,6 6,9 11,ing to market servicing Finance, credit, insurance, 4,127 130 640 -53,6 2,4 0,9 0,7 2,pensions times Other sectors 1 128 1 553 1 727 - 37,0 37,7 11,2 7,9 7,9 5,Source: RF Goskomstat More active interest of foreign investors in production resulted in the fact that the sphere of trade and public catering was outpaced by industry as concerns the investment preferences of foreign investors.
Among the industries most popular with foreign investors, there should be noted fuel industry and metallurgy. Thus, in 2003 foreign investment in fuel industry increased 2.7 times as compared with the figures registered in the preceding year and made US $ 5.3 billion, while investment in metallurgy grew by 41.5 per cent totaling to US $ 3.5 billion. Investment to forestry, wood working, and pulp and paper industry increased more than 2 times (up to US $ 600 million). On the whole, in 2003 a growth in amounts of foreign investment as compared with the indicators registered in 2002 was observed across practically all key industries, although the rates of growth somewhat decelerated (by 31.5 per cent in food industry, by 30.8 per cent in mechanical engineering and metal working), what entailed significant changes in the structure of foreign investment made in industry.
In 2003, the structure of foreign investments in industry is characterized by the prevalence of “other” investment, the share of which made 71.8 per cent (US $ 8.85 billion), what was by 68.8 per cent above the respective indicators observed in 2002. Foreign direct investment in industry increased by 77 per cent in comparison with the figures registered in 2002, the specific weight of this type of investment in total foreign investment in industry is estimated to be 27.7 per cent (US $ 3.4 billion). The amount of portfolio investment in industry has declined 2.75 times over the period under observation.
The regional distribution of foreign investment observed in 2003 indicates the persistence of concentration of foreign investment in Moscow due to its higher investment attractiveness. In 2003, the amount of investment in Moscow amounted to US $ 12 billion, what was by 45 per cent above the level registered in 2002.
Simultaneously, in the past year there was observed a significant increase in the attention of foreign investors to other Russian regions. For instance, foreign investment in the Novgorod oblast grew 3.5 times (up to US $ 212.8 million), while the amount of investment in the Rostov oblast, Karelia, the Leningrad and Chelyabinsk oblasts increased 2 times (up to US $ 225.3 million), 1.7 times (up to US $ 34.7 million), 1.4 times (up to US $ 239.7 million), and by 28.9 per cent (up to US $ 1 billion) respectively. Last year, foreign investment in St.
Petersburg remained at the levels registered in 2002 and made US $ 696 million.
In 2003, five largest investing countries accounted for 62.4 per cent of the total amount of foreign investment accumulated by January 1, 2004, while the respective indicators registered in 2002 and 2003 made 63.per cent and 67.7 per cent. Five largest investing countries also account for 57.5 per cent of direct accumulated investment, 75.4 per cent and 66.1 per cent of portfolio and other investment respectively (in 2002 the respective indicators made 60.1 per cent, 67.0 per cent and 55.2 per cent).
Table Accumulated foreign investment as broken down by major investing countries.
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